Granted, this is a non-scientific poll. Granted these are AOL users. But 535-3?
That just doesn't make sense. The only votes Kerry got were from AOL users in D.C. Check it out here. Here's a screenshot:
My attempts to dismiss this poll as representing AOL users didn't work, as according to the National Business Review:
An informal straw poll of AOL members has also taken a startling turn for the incumbent.
After months of showing Senator Kerry well ahead, in recent days the poll has shown George W Bush out in front — in all states. Only Washington, DC, with three electoral votes, is currently in the Kerry camp, according to AOL.
That would translate into a national landslide for the incumbent, handing him 535 of the country's 538 electoral votes.
There's not enough spin in a Texas tornado to make those numbers look good.
love it, hate it, there's more of it at pacetown.
Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - Eric Olsen
that's one serious convention bounce
2 - Jim Carruthers
I think Penn & Teller have a word for this, so appropriate, they used it for their teevee show: "Bullshit".
Dressing up nonsense with some made up numbers and a map doesn't make it any less nonsense.
However, this does lead me to prove I can make you richer and sexier immediately. Ask me how, only $49.95. Act now!
3 - boomcrashbaby
AOL has a reputation as being the internet for dummies. They've had to simplify how to get on the net and how to surf around, for the technically challenged, for people who don't know how to do things for themselves. This isn't an AOL slam from me, this is AOL's reputation that they've had for years. AOL is for the clueless. That voting result is no surprise.
4 - Jim Carruthers
Does this mean AOL could have been hacked by evil internet hackers who kill kittens to send me porn spam? I'm shocked, because, like AOL has always been the go-to guy for porn and teen-age truck stop hookers, so that they can't be relied on to provide credible USAian political information is just shocking. Shocking I tell you!
5 - Jeremy Chrysler
I'm not suggesting these numbers reflect the reality of the election, but they do reflect the opinions of nearly 200,000 AOL users who bothered to take the time to express their opinion.
Before 6/23, Kerry was winning this poll (AOL resets the poll, I believe on a weekly basis). Since then, Bush has been winning, but as recently as the last update, Bush was only ahead 54%-44%.
As of today, on this straw poll, Bush leads 65%-34%...by 31%. That's a 21% bounce from last week to this, and is a 6% larger gap than Bush has ever had (in this poll obviously).
I suspect it's certainly BS, and that the election won't be reflected in these numbers, but to simply dismiss the numbers because they come from AOL members is a mistake. The numbers are not necessarily predictive of exact numbers, but they are predictive of a trend.
Look at the tracking info on the link.
6 - Bob A. Booey
I have AOL and as far as I've been following this stupid poll, Bush has been winning by considerable margins. It's clearly unscientific and the fact that AOL markets to families and less tech-savvy people (like, well, me) probably distorts this poll beyond any credibility. I wouldn't put any stock in a bump in the AOL poll -- the bumps Kerry should worry about are in the legitimate polls.
That is all.
7 - canuck
I don't know what you're looking at (or toking), but the chart here:
http://www.electionguide04.com/straw_poll.adp
shows that Bush was leading the poll since last June, but dropped during the week of August 25th while Kerry got a nice bump (see the National tab).
The convention seems to have given him a bash rather than a bump with the AOL audience.
8 - Jeremy Chrysler
If you look at the details of any state, it gives the total margin that Bush has in the 'poll'. Currently, as of 9.37 CST, it breaks down as follows:
Bush: 175145 65%
Kerry: 92509 34%
Nader: 2411 1%
I believe they reset it each week. Before the convention, I see Bush with roughly a 10% lead, what looks like 54%-44%. Yes, Bush has been ahead historically, but this is a poll that Kerry has 'won' before.
I don't particuarly feel that any poll 'matters', as only the results on November 2 matter. But this 'poll' like the Time magazine poll that was released on Friday, indicate that Kerry is losing momentum.
Can he regain it? Yes.
Will it be difficult? I think so.
9 - Jim Carruthers
So what you're trying to say in a not-so-subtle way is that Bush is going to steal the forthcoming election using computers?
10 - Jeremy Chrysler
I think he's trying to drive down Time Warner stock, then, through a number of third party buyers (Read: House of Saud), buy up a bunch, only then to award no-bid, monopoly contracts to AfOL (Afghanistan online) and IOL (Iraq online).
But of course, Iraq's name will change after Bush renames the country Karlrovia.
That's just my guess.
11 - Joe conason
These results are only a little different than the just released Time and Newsweek polls, when you translate to electoral votes. The new Gallup, which has Bush with a 16 point lead, appears a bit closer to the AOL numbers, however.
12 - Mac Diva
Don't buy it. Even in an admittedly unscientific poll, that kind of disparity would not occur. Looks like multiple votes by the same people, assuming that voting actually occurred.
And, let's not overlook the 'darkies are dumb enough to vote for Democrats' slam at D.C. That has to be contrived. Fits the Right Wing talking points memo perfectly.
Furthermore, I think nonsense like this should not be blogged. Why spread stupidity? Never mind. I just figured it out. The answer is partisanship.
13 - Sean
You know... in 1984, Ronald Reagan was losing to Mondale in polls. Ronald Reagan was abused in the news, by the press, not too unlike Bush has been. We all know the turnout of that election -- a 49 state landslide, the largest in election history. This "poll" could be accurate, it might not be. The bottom line is, that unlike a "poll" taken by the usual people, there is no formula that you plug in, that changes the results of the polling data for demographics, etc. This is raw data. The internet allows us, unlike in 1984, to view real time voting trends. As such, it is possible, that this polling data is accurate in that sense.
Personally, after 1984, or even the Nixon landslide, I don't think that anyone should ever just discount a poll, that shows a massive victory for one candidate or the other.
As others have stated in here, however, one must remember though -- the election is what, 56 days away? A lot can happen between now and then.
14 - Ryan Eanes
Wow. If this is a Bush conspiracy, and it's any indicator of things to come, then I think it'll be pretty obvious when he and his evil cronies tamper with all of the new touch-screen voting machines.
I can just hear the local directors of elections now...
"Five bazillion votes for President Bush and two for Kerry."
"Two bazillion?"
"No, just two."
15 - David Murray
While this poll may not be scientific, it gives you an idea of the mood of the country. I think the president will win without much trouble. It's also interesting that you can't see the poll anymore by going to election main and then to presidential race like you could before. Could it be that Time/Aol, that infamously liberal organization, is a bit embarrased by the results of their own poll, and is attempting to hide it? What a surprise!!
16 - Mac Diva
The so-called poll is a joke [edited]So, reasonable people have moved on to considering current polling that does not suffer from the defects of this boondoggle. Wishful thinking notwithstanding, the election will not fulfill the fantasy of the people who believe this 'poll.'
17 - Evilwhiteguy
True, we should consider scientific polls. Such as these:
ABC News-Washington Post, Sept. 6-8, 788 likely voters, MoE +/-3.5
(Results from ABC-Post poll in late August in parentheses)
(three-way)
George W. Bush-Dick Cheney 52 percent (48)
John Kerry-John Edwards 43 percent (48)
Ralph Nader-Peter Camejo 2 percent (1)
Unsure, 3 percent (3)
CBS News, Sept. 6-8, 909 RV, MoE +/-3
(Results from CBS poll from August in parentheses)
(three-way)
George W. Bush-Dick Cheney, 49 percent (45)
John Kerry-John Edwards, 42 percent (46)
Ralph Nader-Peter Camejo, 1 percent (1)
Unsure, 8 percent (8)
(two-way)
George W. Bush-Dick Cheney, 50 percent (44)
John Kerry-John Edwards, 42 percent (47)
Unsure, 8 percent (9)
Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, Sept. 7-8, 1,000 LV, MoE +/-3
(Results from late August Fox poll in parentheses)
(three-way)
George W. Bush, 47 percent (43)
John Kerry, 43 percent (44)
Ralph Nader, 3 percent (3)
Unsure, 7 percent (10)
(two-way)
George W. Bush, 47 percent (44)
John Kerry, 45 percent (45)
Unsure, 8 percent (11)
Thank you, MD, for pointing out that all scientific polls show Bush ahead.
18 - Evilwhiteguy
Well, you didn't point it out, but it prompted me to see out the latest polls, all which show Bush clearly in the lead.
19 - Evilwhiteguy
Looking over those polling results, Kerry has one thing working for him. If he was at a water park, the slide he is engaged in would be a boost for the park. Hell, they could even advertise it. "Come take a ride on the Kerry Vietnam War polling slide..."
20 - Mac Diva
(Sigh.) Why is it that so many conservatives can't read? I have not said that most polls favor Kerry or that he will win the election. What I said was that this fabricated 'poll' is too flawed to be taken seriously.
21 - Bob
AOL has takent the straw poll off their Website or moved it so as not to be able to be found. Gee...I wonder why an unbiased AOL/Time Warner/CNN liberal rag would do such a thing. They play the liberals as if they were mindless puppets. Poll not going their way so they just remove it. Typical
22 - Hal Pawluk
The straw poll is still at the same link that was in the original post, so what's all the blather about, Bob?
23 - boomcrashbaby
The poll is still there. There's a line of type that says if it doesn't show up for you, you need to make sure you have the latest version of flash. But that's obvious info to me, mindless liberal that I am.
24 - Bob
Sorry to disagree folks but the straw poll is NOT visible to AOL users on AOL today. If it is, as I said earlier, it has been moved. I have been following this poll on AOL for two months now and I know were it WAS on AOL. Maybe just an AOL/CNN gliche for today? Or not.
25 - Mac Diva
I am indifferent as to whether the poll can still be located or not. My gripes are that it was never really a poll and that the people pushing it are doing so out of wishful thinking. Hopefully, if we are going to discuss polls we can talk about viable ones. If the opposite had occurred, favoring Kerry, I would have said the same thing. I would not have blogged the 'poll,' claiming it was reliable. But, conservatives seem unable to resist an opportunity to try to impose their strange views on the rest of us -- even when said opportunity is this flaky.