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Brown Takes Lead in Massachusetts

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Bolstered by a $1.3 million cash infusion from his Tea Party “moneybomb” on Monday and a massive nationwide campaign to try to swing libertarian-leaning votes away from independent Joe Kennedy, Massachusetts GOP Senate hopeful Scott Brown has assumed a 4 point lead in the latest poll.

The Suffolk University poll conducted for WGBH found Brown supported by 50% of those polled with Democrat Martha Coakley trailing at only 46%. Libertarian independent Joe Kennedy’s support has dropped to 3%.

This is the first poll to show Brown with a clear lead, but follows a trend demonstrated in a Rassumussen poll from Tuesday where he had closed to within 2 points of Coakley, up from being behind by 9 points last week. If this trend continues Brown could win a historic victory

It raises the possibility of an historic political upset in Massachusetts, with a Republican taking a seat which has been held by Democrats in a heavily Democrat dominated state for 57 years.

The shift to Brown seems to be based on the opposition of independent voters to Democrat fiscal policies and efforts at health care reform. Although Massachusetts leans more than 2 to 1 Democrat over Republican, independents in the state seem to be following the national polling trend of breaking 2 to 1 in favor of Republicans. Massachusetts has one of the highest percentages of independent voters in the nation, estimated at around 45% of the population.

This contest in Massachusetts is being watched nationwide as a referendum on the policies of the Obama administration and as an indicator of voting trends for the interim congressional elections later this year.

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About Dave Nalle

Dave Nalle is Executive Director of the Texas Liberty Foundation, Chairman of the Center for Foreign and Defense Policy, South Central Regional Director for the Republican Liberty Caucus and an advisory board member at the Coalition to Reduce Spending. He was Texas State Director for the Gary Johnson Presidential campaign, an adviser to the Ted Cruz senatorial campaign, Communications Director for the Travis County Republican Party and National Chairman of the Republican Liberty Caucus. He has also consulted on many political campaigns, specializing in messaging. Before focusing on political activism, he owned or was a partner in several businesses in the publishing industry and taught college-level history for 20 years.
  • STM

    This what happens when people drink tea: they get motivated.

  • http://delibernation.com Silas Kain

    There’s a feeling in the air in Harvard Square this cold, dark night. The Democrats realize they’re in trouble and Ms. Coakley may not pull it out. For those who remain undecided, think about this. The election on Tuesday if to fill the term left vacant by Ted Kennedy. The winner will have a mere two years to prove they are worthy of their own term. The way I see it, a Scott Brown victory affords the people of Massachusetts a rare opportunity to put Brown to the test and see if he’s got what it takes. We’ve seen Martha Coakley in action or should I say Martha Coakley’s inaction? Scott Brown’s got my vote. Should he win, he’ll have two years to prove he needs it once again.

  • Arch Conservative

    When Silas is fessing up to the fact that Coakley is in trouble then you know it’s the truth.

    If Silas tells you he’s voting for a Republican then you know the shit done hit the fan.

    Coakley has been running ridiculous nonstop TV and radio and TV ads up here. Most of them consist of nothing more than reminding people that Scott Brown is a Republican and so was George Bush over and over.

    If Brown is up or tied with Coakley in a number of polls over the weekend the people of MA won’t likely be getting a visit from Obama. If Barry were to come stump for Coakley and Brown were to win it would be a ginourmous blow to Obama and the Dems at a time when they can ill afford it.

    To be sure….there will be all kinds of underhanded illegal endavors undertaken by the Democrat machine in MA to steal this one. Just look for all the voters with philly, nj, chicago, and ny accents getting on buses with out of state license plates leaving the polls.

    I’m hoping that Brown does pull it off so that the independents and moderates in my own home state of New Hampshire will be emboldened to oust our own two resident Democrat hacks, Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes.

  • Mark

    If you look closely at Brown you will see that the top of his head has been removed and his brain mucked with.

    I’ve been driving through Harvard Square four times daily for the past two weeks and its all anyone is talking about.

  • http://delibernation.com Silas Kain

    Well add this one to the category of WTF? Spoke to a couple of friends in the LGBT community this morning and was told flat out that many gays are voting for Brown. Some are voting for him because he was a model (please, we all know why some of the boys are voting for him) but the majority of LGBT folks who are leaning toward Brown have to do with one issue — health reform. Obama has a television ad running and Clinton’s coming to town. LGBT’s are not impressed. Why? The majority of LGBT folks feel used by Obama and feel he’s done nothing in his first year worth celebrating.

    So, let’s see what the MSM does with this should Brown win on Tuesdy. This is a mandate – not on Ted Kennedy. This is the Bay State’s statement to Barack Obama. Anything less than a 60% victory for Martha Coakley is a profound defeat for Barack Obama. Democrats in Massachusetts wish Hillary was President and Martha Coakley is no Hillary Clinton.

  • http://www.republicofdave.com Dave Nalle

    I find it hard to believe, but another poll from yesterday, paid for by Pajamas Media and with a sample twice as large as the Suffolk Poll shows Brown leading Coakley by 15.4%.

    Dave

  • http://delibernation.com Silas Kain

    Dave, when you see more Brown bumper stickers in Harvard Square as opposed to Coakley, you KNOW there’s trouble in Democrat paradise. If Martha Coakley loses this one, the Democrats here will blame her for running a bad campaign — however, behind the scenes they’re blaming Barack Obama. A Coakley win will be attributed to Bill Clinton’s last ditch effort on her behalf which will only strengthen the growing band of Democrats who are quietly considering a Hillary challenge to Barack Obama in 2012.

  • http://www.indyboomer46.blogspot.com Baritone

    Well, should Brown win, all of you can rest assured that the Health Care Reform Bill will be dead. And, as I’ve noted elsewhere, the issue will be dead for at least a generation. You can all breathe easy. The status quo will remain. Hooray for your side.

    B

  • http://drdreadful.blogspot.com Dr Dreadful

    Dave @ #6:

    The always-dependable Nate Silver over at fivethirtyeight.com points out that the Pajamas Media poll, which was conducted by a firm with virtually no track record and strong links to Republican causes, should be the least of Coakley’s worries.

  • http://www.republicofdave.com Dave Nalle

    I did mention that I was skeptical of the poll, Dr. D. I put more faith in Silas’ first-hand observations.

    As for Coakley, all the evidence suggest she has run a wretched campaign. Going negative seems to have been a major mistake and turned a lot of independents against her. Brown’s choice not to respond in kind seems to have been masterful.

    As I said earlier there’s a reason why Obama won’t be caught dead in that neck of the woods until it’s over.

    Dave

  • http://delibernation.com Silas Kain

    Things in Massachusetts are very fluid this afternoon. Brown has made major gains in the polls. Democrats are divided over who’s at fault. The Obama folks are saying Coakley ran a horrible campaign. They’re right, she did. The reality of this situation is simple. Nobody voted in the Primary. Coakley won by virtue of the Democrat machine base. Once a real election rolls around, the machine can be stopped by the remainder of the voters known as undecided or Independent. The Coakley people and a few state Democrats are blaming Obama. Now we have Barack Obama coming to town because his Administration is in a complete panic and the Massachusetts Democrats are in utter chaos.

    That’s what is at stake here, folks. This Tuesday’s Special Election is turning into the Bay State’s referendum on Barack Obama and health care. That is not as it should be and our President should not have put himself into this position where he has no choice but to interrupt his stewardship to deal with a Special Election in the middle of January. I’ll be completely honest here. I do not like the fact that this entire health care debate may very well be decided here in the Bay State. It’s as bad as allowing a Senator from the Dakotas to call the shots. I’ll bet there are some incumbent Democrats who are praying that Coakley loses so they won’t go down with the ship if this reform bill passes.

    Millions upon millions of dollars are being pumped into the campaigns of Martha Coakley and Scott Brown. The question I have is where will all that money go? And how does all that money benefit the least among us here in Massachusetts? That money could have gone where it’s needed — like HAITI. So, Mass residents, if you decide to vote on Tuesday think about it. What did we get out of this deal? And, what if anything, will we get by electing either candidate? When comparing the candidates and their respective records the choice on Tuesday becomes crystal clear: none of the above. Since we do not have that choice, it makes sense to give Scott Brown two years to prove his mettle.

  • http://delibernation.com Silas Kain

    Steve Kornacki reports that the Coakley internal poll numbers see the AG’s support dwindling as she begins to trail GOP candidate Scott Brown. Obama, Bill Clinton and a few other surprises are in store for MA voters this weekend. The Democrat machine on Beacon Hill is in a complete panic and finger pointing is being done in back rooms. We’ll see if the Boston MSM will run with the compete breakdown.

  • Glenn Contrarian

    According to fivethirtyeight.com, the election’s a toss-up, and the advantage does seem to be in Brown’s favor.

    But there’s a little something that Obama threw out just recently – the tax on banks that took TARP funds. Seems he wants the banks to pay back the taxpayers…and the Republicans (including Scott Brown) immediately came out against the tax on the bankers. Nothing new for the Republicans, of course – they’ve traditionally chosen Big Business over Main Street.

    Even Faux News has gotten in on it. They came out saying that Obama’s intention was to impose a 15 PERCENT tax on the banks…but they were off by a factor of ONE HUNDRED because Obama had proposed a tax of 15 BASIS POINTS, or .15 percent.

    Of course making stuff up is nothing new for Fox. The really sad thing is that so many Republicans listen to ONLY Fox News, so they’ve no idea that they’re being lied to.

  • Arch Conservative

    Hey Nalle. it was reported earlier today that Obama will be coming up this way to campaign for Coakley.

    I guess Obama figures that if Coakley loses it will pretty much be over for his grand plans of healthcare reform, cap and trade what with not having 60 senate seats.

    He’s laying it all on the line this indeed may prove to be his Waterloo. How the hell does he recover if he can’t even help one of his own to victory in the bluest of blue states?

  • http://delibernation.com Silas Kain

    Glenn, I really think this election hinges on health care and the economy. I’m not certain, though, which is stronger. I was an ardent Alan Khazei supporter and was almost convinced to go with Coakley until this last week. Many of my friends are Democrats and members of unions. People are not happy right now with the Dems. In their minds voting for Brown stops the health care process so unions and other special interests can take advantage of a devastated White House. Dems know this term is only for two years so they can live with Scott Brown while they pick the carcass of what’s left. This is a power play for the MA Democrat Party. On the surface they’re Coakley all the way — but in the smoke-filled back rooms it is a completely different story. They’re looking toward Wednesday morning posturing and how best they can capitalize on the turnout Tuesday night. A Coakley defeat may appear on the surface as a major Democrat failure but it’s an opportunity certain factions of the party are relishing with great anticipation. I’ve even heard say that if Coakley loses it sets one of the Kennedys up to challenge Brown for the seat in 2012. Coakley is expendable by most Democrat leaders — they just haven’t told her yet.

    This entire Senatorial election process should be studied by political science majors for the next 20 years. What happens in Massachusetts on Tuesday, my friends, has a direct impact on every citizen of this great country. Scott Brown’s victory will be the foundation of a Democrat defeat in November. All of which sets the stage for a Democrat Primary for President in 2012. Forget Sarah Palin. The 2012 election could very well be Hillary Clinton vs. Mitt Romney.

  • Kenny

    Hey Glenn ever think crazy republicans dont just read fox news and might be even reading this blog???

    Hope you dont think we are that ignorant cause i am a republican! Also if Dems are so great why is the great obama poll numbers dropping like rocks!

    Read both sides, i do!

  • Glenn Contrarian

    Kenny –

    Hope you dont think we are that ignorant cause i am a republican!

    If that had been my belief or intention, you would have proven my point with your comment #16.

  • http://delibernation.com Silas Kain

    There are two kinds of Republicans – Republicans and the Crazy Republicans. Right now the crazies are in charge. Once the TeaBaggers create their own party you’ll see the Return of the Republicans.

  • mrdockellis

    Glenn,
    Funny how you rag on Fox news for not getting the story right when you yourself blew it. “Seems he [Obama] wants the banks to pay back the taxpayers”

    News flash – This tax is on top of the TARP which some banks have already paid back. So Evil Goldman Sachs has already paid the money back with a nice profit for Uncle Sam.

    On the Other side, does any sane person every think we’ll see a dime back from GM, Chrysler, Fannie, Freddie? Oh, but I forgot those are companies that serve largely Democratic constituencies and that means those bailouts need never be repaid.

    Share the wealth, eh comrade?

  • http://www.republicofdave.com Dave Nalle

    Arch, if Obama does come up there to campaign for Coakley it’s a huge gamble. If she loses with him right there, then he loses an awful lot of credibility as leader of his party which is going to cost him in getting any kind of legislation passed. We’ll see more defections and retirements.

    Dave

  • Arch Consevrative

    There are two kinds of Republicans – Republicans and the Crazy Republicans. Right now the crazies are in charge. Once the TeaBaggers create their own party you’ll see the Return of the Republicans.

    What’s so crazy about wanting the government to stay out of your business and let you keep your own money Silas?

    Have you ever even met someone that you call a Teabagger and held a conversation with them? or do you just rely on the lamestream corporate media to do your thinking for you Silas?

    It’s all the rage at the moment to make fun of these people..calling them teabaggers….labelling them fringe…but hey you’re the one who’s part of the problem when you buy into the broken two party system that robs us all regardless if they’re doing it as Democrats or as Republicans. George Bush and Barack Obama have both done very grave damage to this nation.

    But instead of opting for the truth and trying something that is truly unique and different most Americans would rather remain ignorant and swallow the lies of mainstream politicians year in and year out as if somehow some day these power hungry politicians and they’re greedy corporate counterparts are going to wake up one morning with a conscience.

    The tea party movement is a response to the encroachment of the marriage of big government and big business into our lives. You do this nation and yourself a diservice when you belittle it because you have not taken the time to understand it Silas.

    I have not found the time to attend a tea party but I consider those who have my brethren. I am not a religious fundamentalist. I don’t hate gay people or minorities. I have a job. i own a home. I’m middle class with a mortgage. I drive a friggin 10 year old Honda accord because ti gets me where I need to go without costing me a fortune. I am still a registered Republican but voted for Chuck Baldwin last year and will be voting for Ron Paul in 2012. I am recently married and worry about the future of the economy and how I may provide for children that I wish to have. I am dismayed at the dumbing down of our culture. I try my best to treat people I meet like I would want to be treated until they give me a reason to do otherwise.

    And……….

    I’m fedup with the federal government, who is in bed with the international bankers and the global businesses taking from John Q. public to live their own lavisch lifestyles.

    I am a teabaggers if you will and it sickens and angers me to see that ceo’s can run a company into the ground and walk away with multi million dollar bonuses while an honest hard working family of 4-5 struggles. it also sickens me, because there is so much evidence to the contrary, that so many of my fellow citizens believe that if we just elect the right D or R everything will be just fine.

    Some people like the idea of having the government take care of their every last need because it is scary to have to hack your own way in the world. it scares me. But I’d still choose it any day. leave me the f alone and I’ll make a go of it myself. Our current fed government isn’t helping anyone but themselves, the bankers and the global businesses anyway.

    Am I a crazy right winger? I don’t think so. I think there are millions of Americans just like me that are fed up with the lies, bullshit, greed and corruption. They’re deomcrats, republicans independents, white, black, old, young, christian, jewish, muslim etc etc

    Currently we’re the minority as most Americans are brain dead idiots glued to the f-ing TV 10 hours a day. But it’s really disheartening that those on here, even those who I may not agree with often cannot take the time to see what the movement is really about.

  • http://jeanniedanna.wordpress.com/ Jeannie Danna

    Arch asks, What’s so crazy about wanting the government to stay out of your business and let you keep your own money?

    Look at Haiti , take areal long look!

    Before the earthquake there were three doctors for every ten thousand people. If you want me to get really technical then there were two and a half physicians for every twenty thousand Haitians…no infra-structure whatsoever!

    But, I understand that that is the way the wealthy liked it..Haiti, after all,was their playground!