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Box Office Update 6/8-6/10: Ocean’s 13 Deflates Captain Sparrow’s Sails

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Ocean's 13 opened to rather tepid reviews, yet succeeded in topping the box office in its opening frame, easily knocking Pirates out of the top spot after its two-week reign at the top. This was also the first week to offer up a few films with legitimate aspirations for the top slot. With the star power of the Ocean's sequel, the kid-fueled power of Surf's Up, and the blood-drenched draw of Hostel Part II. It is true that only Ocean's had a real shot at the number one position, but the other two were also expected to perform well.

While Ocean's 13 opened at number 1, it still opened up slower than either of its two predecessors. I have a couple of ideas for why that is so. The first thing is, at least to me, I feel that a this type of movie is better suited for a December release. It may be because the first two opened at that time of year, and it helps to conjure up a feel for when you would expect it, much like, I am used to Harry Potter around November, so having that in the summer is a little odd. The other reason being that Ocean's 12 wasn't all that hot, and many have remembered that, and recognize this as something of a pretentious star vehicle with all the big names involved.

There were two other films that cracked the top ten this week. First up is the latest animated penguin outing, Surf's Up, which turned out to be surprisingly good. It wasn't great, but it benefitted from the lack of hype that plagued Shrek the Third. In the end, it turned out to be much more satisfying than the last ogre outing, so if you are looking to wash out the bad taste of that one, this may be the one to do it. The other new face is Hostel Part II, the sequel to the 2006 torture flick from director Eli Roth. Considering the popularity of the Saw series, I am sort of surprised to see this similar series open so much lower than Saw. I guess I shouldn't, Saw does have the October Halloween season sewn up, which is the right time of year for this. Besides, there does seem to be a bit of anti-Eli Roth sentiment around the net. I know nothing of the man personally, but I do enjoy the films, and this was a step up from the initial trip to Slovakia, and I look forward to what may come next.

As for the returning films, Knocked Up is performing very well, with very good audience retention this week. I am happy for it, as it is a fantastic film. The big three seem to have leveled off a bit, following the big initial drops they suffered. Waitress is doing very well, with a mere 20% drop this week, and Disturbia refuses to let go, though I believe this will be its final appearance.

In a bit of non-top ten news, the popularly maligned, and, at least partially, critically praised film has dropped off the edge into the cinematic abyss. In its third week it has dropped all the way down to 22nd position, coinciding with a massive drop in theater count. I guess Lionsgate has conceded box office defeat, and we will likely see it on DVD in short order.

Three movies dropped off the top ten this week, last week's top ten surprise return Gracie (11), 28 Weeks Later (15), and Bug (22).

This Week Last Week Title Wknd Gross Overall Week in release
1 N Ocean's Thirteen $36,133,403 $36,133,403 1
2 1

Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End

$21,143,905 $253,441,723 3
3 2 Knocked Up $19,643,080 $65,867,029 2
4 N Surf's Up $65,867,029 $65,867,029 1
5 3 Shrek the Third $15,317,614 $281,460,065 4
6 N

Hostel Part II

$8,203,391 $8,203,391 1
7 4 Mr. Brooks $4,911,319 $18,593,620 2
8 5 Spider-Man 3 $4,304,986 $325,585,149 6
9 6 Waitress $1,600,600 $11,967,049 6
10 10 Disturbia $523,504 $77,768,967 9

Box Office Predictions Recap
Another week done, and another week of misjudged placements. The top spot was pretty much a given, the rest was pretty wide open. My only major miscalculation was Hostel Part II, based on the success of the Saw series, I am surprised at how weak Hostel opened. I guess there may be something to all of this anti-Eli sentiment I see across the net. For the most part, I wasn't all that far off in either placement or in gross predictions.
Anyway, here is how I picked the field:

Actual Prediction Title Wknd Gross Prediction
1 1 Ocean's 13 $36,133,403 $41 million
6 2 Hostel Part II $8,203,391 $23 million
3 3 Knocked Up $19,643,080 $20 million
2 4 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End $21,143,905 $18.5million
4 5

Surf's Up

$17,640,249 $16 million
5 6 Shrek the Third $15,317,614 $15 million
8 7 Spider-Man 3 $4,304,986 $5 million
7 8 Mr. Brooks $4,911,319 $4 million
9 9 Waitress $1,600,600 $1 million
11 10 Gracie $514,057 $.75 million
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