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Box Office Update 11/28-11/30: Four Christmases Proves to be a Winner

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This holiday weekend was not a big winner, as it slipped below last week's combined total, but it was not a complete bust as three films topped the $25 million mark. I have to say that the overall state of mainstream cinema is not all that great. Yes, there are good films but we're missing that spark that a big, tent-pole style film would bring. I thought that last week's huge opening of Twilight would provide that lift, but it suffered a precipitous drop in its second go around.

This week was led by the first Christmas (well, it has Christmas in the title) film of the season, Four Christmases. The holiday-centric romantic comedy features Vince Vaughn and Reese Witherspoon in the lead roles with an impressive supporting cast that is severely underused. The film tries to marry manic physical comedy with heartfelt relationship stuff and winds up half-baked as a result. It has its moments and its laughs, but it is not nearly what it could have been.

Three other new releases made their way onto the charts providing an even spread of new film banding throughout the top ten. In fifth place is Baz Luhrmann's sprawling epic Australia, a movie that is a little undercooked, but entertaining nonetheless, although its rather tepid opening (against budgetary expectations) would seem to make it a tough bet to cover its $130 million production budget. Slip down to seventh place and you will find Transporter 3 opening with just over $12 million, right in between the first two entries, right on target. Finally, right down at the bottom of the list is the new Gus Van Sant film Milk, a film that is sure to tempt Oscar's fickle finger. The film stars Sean Penn and seems ready to do well when it hits wide release. After all, it averaged over $40,000 per screen at 36 theaters, the best average of the top ten.

As for the returning films, Twilight has to be seen as a disappointment with its 62% drop from last week. Sure, it is still pulling in money, but it looks like it will be a quick drop. Could be the repeat viewing potential and widespread fandom may have been overstated. I guess the proof will be seen when the already announced sequel reaches theaters.

At the other end of the spectrum is Bolt, which seems to have benefited greatly from its word of mouth. It finished in second place with a tally that was greater than it was in its opening weekend. It is a highly enjoyable film that is a genuine crowd pleaser. It is not the most original film of its kind, but it is nice to see it enjoy this second week growth.

Next week sees only one film hitting wide release with Punisher: War Zone. It does not look great, but at least it is rated R. Two other films get mid-level releases in crime thriller Nobel Son and drama Cadillac Records.

Four movies dropped off the top ten this week: Changeling (12), High School Musical 3: Senior Year (13), The Secret Life of Bees (15), and Zack and Miri Make a Porno (16).

This Week Last Week Title Wknd Gross Overall Week in release
1 N Four Christmases $31,069,826 $46,054,468 1
2 3 Bolt $26,581,002 $66,848,840 2
3 1 Twilight $26,344,032 $119,706,509 2
4 2 Quantum of Solace $18,833,552 $141,418,534 3
5 N Australia $14,800,723 $20,004,456 1
6 4 Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa $14,207,329 $159,066,369 4
7 N Transporter 3 $12,063,452 $18,230,758 1
8 5 Role Models $5,284,000 $57,780,820 4
9 8 The Boy in the Striped Pajamas $1,696,187 $5,169,495 4
10 N Milk $1,453,844 $1,941,472  

Box Office Predictions Recap

Well, the numbers are in. Once again they prove just how mediocre to poor I am at figuring these things. Sure, sometimes I nail it and get a bunch right, but I have to say that without any real figures and numbers from studios based on their expectations and research, this is pretty tough. It is fun to try, but I have to recognize the fact that the audience at large is a fickle beast. It's all in good fun, right?

Here is how the field matched up:

Actual Prediction Title Wknd Gross Prediction
3 1 Twilight $26,344,032 $32 million
1 2 Four Christmases $31,069,826 $24 million

5

3 Australia $14,800,723 $18 million
2 4 Bolt $26,581,002 $17.5 million
4 5 Quantum of Solace $18,833,552 $16.5 million
7 6 Transporter 3 $12,063,452 $15 million
6 7 Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa $14,207,329 $9 million
8 8 Role Models $5,284,000 $4.5 million
9 9 The Boy in the Striped Pajamas $1,696,187 $3 million
12 10 Changeling $1,207,240 $2 million

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About Draven99

  • aj

    If twilight did 70 million week one and nearly 40 million week two, how is that a 62% drop off?

    I’d say 100 million plus in two weeks is preety good.

  • http://draven99.blogspot.com Chris Beaumont

    You are looking at the five day holiday, not the three day weekend. The Fri-Sun total was $26.2 million vs the $69.6 million opening weekend. That is a pretty big drop for its second weekend.