The second problem with Gilbert’s argument is that he assumes selecting an individual at random from the general population as a surrogate for our own feelings is possible, when indeed for most of us it is not. Most of us run in circles that are influenced by where we live, where we work, where we went to school, what kinds of families we came from. Therefore, an African American Baptist from Charleston is more likely to know more African American evangelical southerners than a Polish Catholic steelworker from Pittsburgh. So, even if we tried to select at random, our circle of acquaintances would inevitably be skewed by the circumstances of our own lives and far from random in actuality.
Given the shortcomings of the "ask someone else approach" to predicting our future happiness, Gilbert’s book is aptly named. As he convincingly argues, we cannot with any reliability use our pasts, current states, or imagined futures as accurate predictors of our own future emotional states. And, since we can’t really rely on the report of one randomly selected individual experiencing the event we are contemplating, we truly are left with no other choice — to continue to stumble and fumble and hope for happiness.
Article comments
1 - Natalie Bennett
This article has been selected for syndication to Advance.net, which is affiliated with newspapers around the United States. Nice work!