Books made of paper will go extinct. It is the inevitability of creative destruction, the same road that saw LPs and gramophones become fixtures in antique shops. Inertia and economics are the only reason paper books still exist. It is awfully hard for the 500-year-old technology of the printing press to vanish overnight, with so many generations of baggage to get rid off. But the wheels have been set in motion. Now we just sit back and watch.
Like most fads of the past, paper and ink will expire its longevity, and be replaced by matters of convenience. The e-book readers have already made an entry. The prices are high, but they will drop soon. The Amazon Kindle has already sold out in over 100 countries. Vague figures by the Cleantech Group tell us that the the Kindle is more eco-friendly than buying books. And a dozen other companies are competing with the Kindle to ensnare the literate public. For now, they will attempt to mimic paper books as closely as they can, to allow smooth transition without the unnecessary hangovers and claims of the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it.
But the nostalgia will soon fade, and the e-book readers, so far shackled in the conservative nature of people to dwell in the "good times of the past", shall break free from all the constraints and pursue a path of efficiency and optimization. It is what engineers do, create new technologies and hope that people alter their behaviors to keep up with the added conveniences that the inventions provide. Keeping up with the times, reading habits will change. Slow changes but incremental over generations.
People will find it easier to instantly download new books. With costs of distribution low, economies of scale will ensure that the costs of books fall, almost like in the music industry. A new generation of authors will evolve who don't require publishing houses, along with a new generation of interactive books, catering to the entertainment needs of millions.
Article comments
1 - Howard Sherman
Your mentioning of interactive books is spot on. Interactive fiction is a reality today by mixing together fiction and technology creating a different entertainment medium.
2 - archisman
your article does not mention how cumbersome handling a laptop is for reading ebooks. so specialized gadgets only for reading ebooks would be necessary, so that its easy to carry, but anyways your last para was good :) and other than that it was quite uninteresting
3 - doug m
Maybe one day, but I don't think this will happen in anyone's lifetime alive today. My books don't run out of power and don't get damaged when dropped. Just because it's new doesn't make it better
4 - Christy Corp-Minamiji
From following publishing news and blogs, I suspect you may be right about the future of paper. For my own sake I hope you're wrong. Reading is a completely sensual pleasure. I enjoy the feel of books, the sounds of the pages, and the smell of books as they age. Call me nostalgic.
5 - Kanishk
My first impression of ebook readers when they came out a couple years ago was of absolute pessimism. Wondered why people would buy them when u can read ebooks on ur laptops. But I see the way people have taken to it, and its quite impressive. And I know for a fact that research is already on to create next-gen e-book readers that feel and smell like real paper, so that should take care of the inertia that you mentioned.