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Black Votes Will Win This Election For Bush

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From here:

Could President Bush receive a surprisingly large black turnout on Election Day? Considering recent history, the idea sounds about as likely as pop star Michael Jackson receiving a Man of the Year Award from the Children’s Defense Fund. But elections can produce unexpected results. That’s why we hold them.

This week I found myself blinking my eyes in disbelief over two major polls that showed a big bump for Bush among likely black voters.

A New York Times poll released Tuesday showed that among likely voters, 47 percent support Bush, 45 percent are for Sen. John Kerry and 2 percent for Ralph Nader.

But in the race breakdown, the Bush-Cheney ticket is buoyed by an amazing 17 percent from African-Americans. (Kerry receives 76 percent of the black voters and Nader only 1 percent.)

Although 17 percent is still less than one in five, it is more than twice the tiny 8 percent turnout that the Bush-Cheney ticket received in the 2000 election.

Also on Tuesday, a poll with a much larger sample of black voters was released by the Washington-based Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, a leading think tank on black-oriented issues. It showed a very similar African-American boost for the Bush-Cheney ticket: 18 percent versus 69 for Kerry and 2 percent for Nader.

From here:

I don’t think the Black vote is going to come out in the type of numbers Senator Kerry is going to need. African-Americans certainly don’t like President Bush, but they are unenthusiastic about Kerry and that will hurt the Democrats on the margins.

From here:

Michael Johnson believes that the country would be “absolutely” better off with President Bush out of the White House.

“He’s the most inept president I’ve ever seen in my lifetime,” Johnson, an independent who lives in Normandy, Mo., said in an interview last week.

But Johnson has been so underwhelmed by Democratic challenger John F. Kerry that he said he is considering skipping over the presidential ballot when he goes to the polls Nov. 2. It is a vote that Kerry cannot afford to lose, especially in a battleground state.

“Kerry does not have the charisma, and his platform does not excite me,” Johnson said, complaining that Kerry has been so preoccupied fighting with Bush over the war in Iraq and terrorism that the Massachusetts senator has ignored the economic and domestic issues that are important to Johnson’s struggling community just outside St. Louis.

Johnson’s frustrations were voiced by other African Americans in recent interviews and could be a pitfall for Kerry, who needs an energized Democratic base as he heads into the final weeks of the campaign. African Americans are among the party’s most loyal voting groups, but festering dissatisfaction with Kerry’s message and tepid interest in the race could cause many of them to stay away from the polls.

Black voters stayed home in significant enough numbers in 2002 that Democrats in South Carolina, North Carolina, Missouri, Texas, Georgia and Arkansas lost — in large part because they neglected issues that matter to African Americans and focused, instead, on courting white conservative voters.

In two Washington Post-ABC News polls last month, 79 percent of black voters said they preferred Kerry, compared with 38 percent of white voters. But less than half of the black voters who support Kerry said they were “very enthusiastic” about his candidacy.

From here:

While Democrats have long claimed to be the party of greater inclusiveness, this year President Bush may argue that his administration is more diverse at senior levels than John Kerry’s would be.

Seizing on the nation’s diversity — the country is almost one-third non-white — Bush has appointed African-Americans, Asians, Latinos and women to senior and non-stereotypical roles: Secretary of State, national security adviser, Transportation Secretary, White House Counsel.

Unlike Al Gore whose campaign manager, political director and finance director were African-American, the Kerry campaign, as of yet, has no one of color in the innermost circle, including Kerry’s campaign manager, campaign chairperson, media adviser, policy director, foreign policy adviser, general election manager, convention planner, national finance chairman, and head of VP search team.

That’s an odd position for a campaign that will probably rely on African-Americans and Hispanics for one in four of their general election votes and the crucial margin of difference in battleground states like Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Ohio.

Though Kerry could claim that a campaign team and administration are two different things, that kind of defense might not wash with voters.

All of this points to a Kerry campaign that has not closed the deal with a lot of black voters. It’s not that Bush is terribly popular among blacks; in fact, he’s quite unpopular. But Kerry has not given blacks a reason to vote for him, other than simply as a way to oppose Bush.

If Bush doubles his 2000 performance with black voters, he is going to win. Going from 8% to 16% support among the tens of millions of black voters will surely swing some close (and Electoral Vote-rich) states in his favor.

Jesse Jackson is now a part of the Kerry campaign. Maybe he will be able to shave a few points off of Bush’s percentage of black support. We will see, 13 days from today…

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About RJ

  • http://lifeinaurora.blogspot.com Jason Koulouras

    Thanks RJ – interesting post – it just shows you can allienate parts of your constituency whilst going after other votes. Sounds like someone has been neglecting their home cooking

    Cheers
    Jason

  • http://dcartnews.blogspot.com Lenny

    That is incredibly eye opening!

  • http://www.roblogpolitics.blogspot.com RJ

    Thank you both.

    It is almost inconceivable that Bush will again get less than double-digits with black voters. And he will likely do relatively well (and better than in 2000) with Hispanics.

    White men always vote Republican, and white married women are supportive of the GOP.

    White single women are going for the Dems, though.

    Kerry is likely going to lose, as things stand today. But 13 days is an eternity in politics. We will just have to wait and see…

  • Claire Robinson

    RF…very interesting piece. I enjoyed, but this white, single woman isn’t going for the Dem’s…:)

    I did enjoy your piece.

    Claire

  • http://www.iamcorrect.blogspot.com Lono

    Claire, damnit – listen to reason before it is too late. GW Bush is the devil, and certainly one of the last groups he is concnered with is blacks. Why else would he have skipped out on the NAACP for the last two years, causing them to thoroughly denounce his candidacy.

  • http://www.morethings.com/senate Al Barger

    Yeah, Democrats not only have to get lots of black folks to the polls, but they also have to get nearly all of them to vote Democrat. If Bush can get beat among blacks only two or three to one in 2004, rather than ten to one as in 2000, then Kerry’s going to be in bad trouble.

    After all, black voters are not cardboard cutout “black votes” to be hung on the line. There are other issues besides race for these human beings to consider.

    Bush is making some modest inroads with black voters on the basis of social issues, apparently. For example, there are a lot of black folks who do not at all appreciate having gay marriage presented by liberal Democrats as being the same thing as black civil rights.

    Whatever combination of these thoughts is weighing on their minds, Bush seems to be making some headway with more religious black folk. I don’t have the story right at hand that I saw yesterday, but it may be based on the same poll RJ cites here.

    What I noticed was that while Bush drew in the 18% range with blacks overall, he was up around 48% or somewhere thereabouts among self-described evangelical blacks.

    Religion seems to be a more prominent aspect of the black community than among the country as a whole. Bush obviously appeals far more to religious people than does Kerry. Bush would sure look a lot more natural on a personal level in a black (Or any other kind of) church than Kerry.

    If religious and moral convictions trump racial paranoia among a significant percentage of blacks on election day, Kerry will be screwed.

  • http://n/a Stephen Jameson

    Being non- American, I am probably not qualified to comment on your elections, but I shall anyway. I would be devastated if George Bush got voted back into the WHitehouse, not least of all because of the way he has deformed the world’s perception of the American people.

    Whether you want to believe it or not, Americans are mud all over the world because of this crazy, capitalist, renegade president of yours. We all know that he stole the vote in 2000 and blatantly got away with it, we all know that he is a puppet who doesn’t have the brain cells to tie his shoe laces and that he is being wielded to enrich the super rich and keep the poor (not only of the third world, but in America), poor.

    He doesn’t stand for any notion of decency, he is like a real-life doctor evil out to take over the world and amass all of its wealth for his ‘base’ (the elite as he calls them). He is so blind to the damage that he is doing that it is mind-boggling. I admit that Kerry is nothing special, but if America has any hope of avoiding being attacked again and of avoiding the wrath of millions of ‘rightfully angered’ Islamics all over the world, he is going to have to replace Bush.

    If Bush gets voted back in America will be damaged for years to come, America is already going to have a lot of work regaining any respect from the world as it is and this is so unfair to the normal everyday American people.
    If the average American had any idea whatsoever of Ameican foreign policy and the devastating effect it has on millions and millions of the world’s poor they would be gob-smacked, especially since they are being collectively blamed for the exploitation of the world’s poor even though it has nothing to do with them.

    To clear up my point about ‘rightfully angered’ Islamics … how do you think people are going to react when their liberty, families, countries and their very beliefs are being trampled underfoot by an arrogant, violenin Iraq and million of people in Afghanistan have no idea what they have done to be chosen for such horrendous obliteration at the hands of a cold-blooded regime like the Bush war machine.

    To go into Iraq in response to 9/11 is like going into Norway to punish the IRA. And punish who – is actually ‘murdering’ lots of people what the American people want in response to 9/11? P

    Islam is a religion based on good, on equality and of mutual respect. You will mever find a Muslim condemning another person for their beliefs. They believe that they are right, as all religious groups do, but they shall never try to wipe out those who do not think as they do. To condemn Islam because of Islamic extremists is to call every Irish person a terrorist. Islamic extremism is punishable by death within Islamic law.

    No religious group has the right to attack another’s religion, as Bush’s evangelical Christian, Puritan beliefs tend to do – such a display of evil double standards and the abuse of people’s basic rights to believe in whatever they want to believe in is hard to grasp.

    Please get Bush out of the Whitehouse, for your own sakes if not the whole world’s. Have the courage to make a decision that helps more than just the super rich in your leadership at the expense of the very planet we are trying to live in.

    It is not too late to again gain respect for Americans in the world.

    Stephen

  • Eric Olsen

    Stephen, we appreciate your concern, but I am curious at how you have arrived at this rather shockingly skewed version of America under Bush. And you are just dead wrong about the influence that violent, extremist Islam has had on Islam-proper. You grosly underestimate the threat to the Western world in general, and I think have it exactly wrong about how “regime change” would be perceived among the terrorists and their supporters. Have you heard the crowing from the twisted fucks about effecting “regime change” in Spain?

  • http://www.tude.com/ Hal Pawluk

    Get real, RJ – how on earth can you say “White men always vote Republican” with a straight face?

    What the righties still don’t realize is that their lies have finally pissed off that good old Silent Majority, and they’re coming out in droves for Kerry.

    Stay tuned.

  • http://macaronies.blogspot.com Mac Diva

    Hal, the same way he can say I speak in Ebonics-:).

  • http://www.tude.com/ Hal Pawluk

    Stephen is on the right track, Eric.

    His perspective is informed from better, less muddled information than what we get here in Spin Country. The rest of the world doesn’t get the propaganda we do, and has to make judgments based on facts rather than lies and deliberately misleading disingenuity.

    Americans are mud all over the world
    because of this crazy, capitalist, renegade president of yours. We all
    know that he stole the vote in 2000 and blatantly got away with it, we
    all know that he is a puppet …

    He doesn’t stand for any notion of decency … He is so blind to the damage
    that he is doing that it is mind-boggling. I admit that Kerry is nothing
    special, but if America has any hope of avoiding being attacked again and
    of avoiding the wrath of millions of ‘rightfully angered’ Islamics all
    over the world, he is going to have to replace Bush.

    If Bush gets voted back in America will be damaged for years to come …

    I don’t agree that we can “[avoid] the wrath of millions of ‘rightfully angered’ Islamics” but even here he is on the right track: Bush has unnecessarily alienated Muslims who could help reduce the threat of terrorism to America and the world.

    Bush just doesn’t get it on terrorism. We need to remove him before he does even more harm than he has already.

  • JR

    Surely busting the NAACP right before the election wasn’t the brightest political move.

  • http://theugliestamerican.blogspot.com/ andy marsh

    Hal – you say the rest of the world doesn’t get the propaganda we do…then you spew that BS about Bush stealing the election! That’s propaganda right there…the votes were counted Hal..over and over and over again. gore lost…face it!

  • http://www.tude.com/ Hal Pawluk

    Andy, please try to stay on topic and in the here-and-now. If you can.

    Here’s what I said:

    I don’t agree that we can “[avoid] the wrath of millions of ‘rightfully
    angered’ Islamics” but even here he is on the right track: Bush has
    unnecessarily alienated Muslims who could help reduce the threat of terrorism
    to America and the world.

    Bush just doesn’t get it on terrorism. We need to remove him before he does
    even more harm than he has already.

    Did you even read it?

    If so, which part confused you so much to cause you to go ranting off on some other topic?

    Bush has proven himself an incompetent CIC, not only failing to reduce the terrorist threat, but in fact increasing it. And increasing it for the entire world, not only America.

    Clear?

  • http://theugliestamerican.blogspot.com/ andy marsh

    This part Hal

    We all
    know that he stole the vote in 2000 and blatantly got away with it, we
    all know that he is a puppet …

    Straight out of comment 11

  • http://theugliestamerican.blogspot.com/ andy marsh

    along with your comment that his info is less “muddled”

  • http://www.tude.com/ Hal Pawluk

    Ah, Stephen’s comment is what got you going.

    Tell me what you point was about the “muddled”?

    Do you think the propaganda we’re fed is better than uncolored (or ‘uncoloured’ in this case) facs?

  • http://theugliestamerican.blogspot.com/ andy marsh

    YOU call them facts…or facs…if they counted the florida votes ONE MORE TIME, would you be satisfied then?

    I’m curious what it takes to make it as a fact in your book?

  • http://n/a Stephen Jameson

    Hmmm, I wasn’t sure whether I should add another comment, I didn’t think that I had been challenging in my last – it actually seemed like common sense to me that Bush’s administration are corrupt and sinister to say the least. Since you guys haven’t put names to your comments, I guess I just have to reply in general to your follow ups.
    I arrived at this point of view by living the world and by observing the events that have unfolded alomost from the moment Bush took the wheel of America. Having then wondered why the hell a group of people could have possinly done something as terrible and horrendous as 9/11 I studied American foreign policy and frankly I was and am appauled. I am not – not going to go into a rant about American foreign policy, get a book and study it for yourself with an open heart. People can convince themselves of anything, that’s why you need to be honest with yourself first of all, especially when you are going to start writing comments on an Internet site like this.
    Anyway, as to the reaction to the rigged vote in 2000. That isn’t propaganda, it’s fact. I have researched this subject and I even read more than ‘stupid white men’ in order to get my conclusions. Understandably both men wanted to win and one man just happened to have a brother who could give him a hand, or do I have to explain that to you too. You ‘know’ that by using social security numbers to bar certain people from voting and the resultant use of ‘that’s near anough to a criminal’s social security number’ method to bar thousands of black votes in Florida was fact – not propaganda. It doesn;t matter how many times you count the votes if the people didn’t get to vote in the first place. Let’s seriously try to stick to the facts.
    If someone writes crap on a web site and I think its crap – yeah I’ll say it is, but if someone writes something that I think is a good point, I’ll at least be open to another person’s point of view – isn;t that the way it’s supposed to be? I’m not making this stuff up, frankly I think it’s a shame that the American people are getting such bad press because of the foreign policy of thier government, especially when its got nothing to do with the people.

    Sorry, I’m going off on one there.

    To that person who was giving off about crazies in Spain. Terrorists like this do not represent the majority of the people in any cases. Most people just want to live their lives. There shall always be minorities who are angered anough to kill – and frankly sometimes that isn’t hard to understand, however, if you listen to the voice of a radical and decide that that is the voice of a majority of people, then you are very blind indeed to human nature.

    All the best

    Stephen

  • thomas

    somebody post some new shit

  • Eric Olsen

    yes, after all, there are only 25,000 other articles on this site, which are published at the rate of about 50 per day

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