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Barack Obama Will Win the 2008 Presidential Election

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It has become increasingly clear to me that both the political climate and electoral landscape virtually guarantee a Barack Obama victory. As most of you have probably realized, he has been favored by both of these factors since he clinched the nomination. Beyond a few minor details and the wider availability of polling data today, this article could have been written four months ago. First, I will take a look at the current polling data available at RealClearPolitics, and then I will mention some of the political reasons these polls are unlikely to change enough for McCain prior to election day.

By my count there are 240 electoral votes which almost anyone will agree Obama will win (WA, OR, CA, NM, IA, IL, DC, MD, DE, NJ, CT, RI, MA, NY, VT, ME, MI, PA). On top of this I will add:

Wisconsin (10 EV): Obama only leads by 5.0% currently in the RCP average, but nearly two dozen consecutive polls since May have him winning. Kerry and Gore both carried the state and Obama won it handily during the primaries.

Minnesota (10 EV): Obama only leads by 4.6% currently, but the well respected Rasmussen polling agency had him up by 8%, and he has won in over two dozen consecutive polls since March.

This brings Obama's EV total to 260. The question is, what will give him the 9 EV to put him over the top?

He can win Virginia with its 13 EV. While Bush won Virginia by about 8% in 2000 and 2004, Obama is currently leading polls in the state by an average of 3.0%. The past 3 Rasmussen polls are Obama by 3, 5 and McCain by 2. Polling since June has been almost a dead heat, but the recent surge in Obama's polls has put him ahead. I would put his chance of winning this state around 50%.

He can win North Carolina with its 15 EV. Bush won North Carolina by about 12% in the last two elections, but Obama leads the polls by an average of .7%. All the polls prior to the past two weeks had McCain ahead so unless Obama maintains his surge through election day, McCain will win this state.

He can win Ohio with its 20 EV. Bush won the state by 3.5% and 2.1% in 2000 and 2004, respectively. Obama currently leads the polls by 2.0%. Obama's message did not do much for him against Hillary Clinton and it doesn't seem to be doing much against McCain in the state. I am inclined to go against the RCP market data and give Obama only a 25% chance of winning the state.

He can win Colorado with its 9 EV. Bush won the state by 8.4% and 4.7% in 2000 and 2004 respectively, so it is clearly trending Democratic. Obama currently leads by 5.0% in the polls, and 10/11 polls in the state this month show Obama winning. Given his large margin in the polls I think he will win this state. Let's put his odds at at least 75%.

He can win Nevada with its 5 EV. Bush won the state by 3.5% and 2.6%. There has only been 4 polls in the state this month producing an average Obama in of .5%. Looking back prior to this month, it has been a dead heat. I would give Obama a 25% chance of winning this state.

He can win New Hampshire with its 4 EV. Kerry won the state by 1.3% while Bush won it in 2000 by the same margin. Obama leads by 1.3% in the average of current polls. Given the fact that Kerry won the state, and it trended democratic, I see little reason for it to revert this year. Obama will very likely carry this state.

He can win Florida with its 27 EV. Bush won the state by .1% and 5%. Obama currently leads by 3.0%. Polls have trended sharply Obama the past couple of weeks in FL. Let's give him a 25% chance.

Of these states, any one would win him the election except NV and NH, both of which he would have to win. Colorado wins him the election because an electoral tie is thrown to the house where 28 of the 50 states have democratic delegations and each delegation gets one vote. This could change if democrats lose certain seats, but this is unlikely.

This gives Obama 5 realistic possibilities for winning the election (carrying CO, VA, OH, FL, or NH+NV). It gives McCain only two possibilities by winning CO, VA, OH, FL and either NH or NV. Even worse for McCain, both of these scenarios require him to win at least 5 states, all of which Obama has a 25-75% chance of winning. Most likely Obama wins the 260 EV I already gave him, plus 13 EV from CO and NH, where he has a substantial lead. If the Obama surge continues through election day, he will likely carry more than this. Clearly, this stretches already inferior McCain resources even thinner because he must win 5/6 states where Obama currently leads.

Obama's advantage on the electoral map is compounded by political advantages which McCain can do little to counter. A weak economy is a strong disadvantage for any incumbent party. Democratic party affiliation has soared. President Bush has an approval rating hovering around 30%.

If there was one thing to be learned from the Obama-McCain debate, it was the importance of these factors in governing this election. McCain, by any fair account, won the debate. He dominated Obama on several issues and came across as far more experienced. My own unscientific sampling of media coverage the next day gave McCain the edge. About 50 million people tuned into the debate. However, Obama's lead in the polls only continued to grow following the debate.

This confirms what some of the pundits had suggested prior to the debate: a tie is an Obama win. People in this political climate want to vote for Obama, but some have reservations. Obama reached a minimal threshold of competence and trustworthiness to reassure these voters and win their vote. Expectations were lower for Obama than McCain.

If McCain winning a debate on the issues results in an increased Obama lead in the polls, then I find it highly unlikely McCain will be able to turn the polls around prior to election day. As long as Obama maintains a firm campaign and doesn't commit a large blunder, then the fundamentals of 2008 will ensure his victory.

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  • http://www.indyboomer46.blogspot.com Baritone

    Funny, no one seems to believe that Obama can carry Indiana. Yet, recent polls show Obama to be tied or having as much as a 6% lead across the state.

    While a McCain win in Indiana would surprise no one, neither would an Obama win surprise me.

    My wife and I canvassed for Obama last Saturday. We went to more than 50 homes on Indy’s south side, which is generally a conservative stronghold in the city. The response was around 8 to 1 for Obama. Maybe something unexpected is brewing here. One can only hope.

    B

  • http://biggesttent.blogspot.com/ Silas Kain

    At this stage I’m discouraged. It does not matter which one wins the Presidency. And NO ONE wants to discuss it! Are we that stupid to think we can pin all our hopes on one leader? Are we that stupid to believe that under an Obama Presidency, Congress will capitulate and allow him to implement his vision for America? I’m preparing myself for the inevitable — Barack Obama will be the next President. And three years from now if there’s an Internet remaining which isn’t ‘metered’, I’ll be on Blog Critics saying “I told you so!”

    A union of Canada, Mexico and the States is starting to look pretty good.

  • http://handyfilm.blogspot.com handyguy

    In a campaign as full of, er, unusual twists and turns as this one, 33 days is a long time, and who knows what could happen.

    But I’ve said since around February, to much eye-rolling and derision on here, that one model this campaign may follow is the 1980 one [with the parties reversed].

    Voters weren’t quite sure whether Reagan could be trusted, and polls reflected their uncertainty. The debates, plus a tanking economy and a very unpopular incumbent, put that issue to rest — voters got more comfortable with the idea of a former Hollywood actor, portrayed by some as an extremist warmonger, becoming President. And in the end he got an electoral landslide.

    I’m not ready to predict that this is exactly what will happen. But it is starting to look possible and plausible.

  • http://www.futonreport.net/ Matthew T. Sussman

    Well then. Glad we got that settled a month early. Now we can enjoy the World Series in bipartisan peace.

  • http://handyfilm.blogspot.com handyguy

    Yes, Silas, I’ve heard it said by more than one commentator that the next presidency is not a job anyone could really want…that it is doomed at least to disappointment and probably to failure, because of the economy, healthcare, baby boomers retiring, and of course Iraq and Afghanistan.

    But let’s not write Barack off just yet, please! [McCain either for that matter.] We’re lucky to have two high-quality candidates this year. All the complaining that “I don’t like either one of them” comes mostly from habitual grumpy Gusses, inclined to dislike/distrust all politicians and government leaders.

  • Lisa Solod Warren

    Sorry, Handy, I am a grumpy gus for sure, because I don’t consider McCain or his sidekick high quality at all….

  • http://biggesttent.blogspot.com/ Silas Kain

    Well then. Glad we got that settled a month early. Now we can enjoy the World Series in bipartisan peace.

    Sorry, Matt. This Mets fan is boycotting the World Series.

  • pleasexcusetheinterruption

    Funny, no one seems to believe that Obama can carry Indiana. Yet, recent polls show Obama to be tied or having as much as a 6% lead across the state.

    While a McCain win in Indiana would surprise no one, neither would an Obama win surprise me.

    One poll doesn’t mean anything unless you check their sample size and METHODOLOGY. Rasmussen is a good bet. And I don’t know what poll you’re talking about because the last poll to have him up by 6 was in April.

    An Indystar poll which had him up by 3. My guess is they are weighting the indianapolis metro area much higher than other polls. Check it out if you want to take the poll as legitimate but I’ll but anything that’s the case. Either that or they are weighting democrats too heavily in their sample (most good polling agency reweight the poll afterwards to hit a specific ratio of dem/gop/ind – rasmussen readjusts to have 38 point something in their final sample).

    Every other poll (the last dozen) has McCain up in the state by an average of 3-4% at a time when Barack Obama should theoretically be peaking in the polls for a number of reasons. If Obama isn’t leading in Indiana today – he will not be on election day.

    I would bet my life’s savings (not much) with 10:1 odds that McCain wins Indiana. Bush won it by 20.7% in 2004.

  • Cindy D

    B,

    My husband and I headed to our border state of PA and canvassed last Saturday.

    We were only sent to D or I homes (none that were known R). Of those who objected to Obama, the main objection expressed was the carrying of concealed weapons.

    I hadn’t figured how big of an issue this is in certain areas. Still, most I spoke to were voting for Obama.

  • Lee Richards

    In Virginia, Mark Warner(D)is leading his opponent by better than 2 to 1 in the senate race according to polls. His coattails will probably help Obama a lot here.

  • Lisa Solod Warren

    Oh, Warner is a shoe in. Obama, I am not as sure about. But he IS ahead.

  • http://www.maskedmoviesnobs.com El Bicho

    If the reports about McCain leaving MI are true, things did get tougher since the campaign said they need to win 2 out of 3 in MI, OH & PA.

  • http://biggesttent.blogspot.com/ Silas kain

    I’m curious. How do Blogcritics feel about a limited election season? Does a prolonged Presidential campaign season lead to voter fatigue? Does the financial challenge of mounting a Presidential Election cause the best of our people NOT to seek office? How do you suggest we make the system more interactive and attractive to more rank and file people?

  • daisy

    he has to win because he is the right one..

  • whodunnit

    Cindy D:

    “We were only sent to D or I homes (none that were known R). Of those who objected to Obama, the main objection expressed was the carrying of concealed weapons.”

    I doubt this.

    I suspect that there is a another ‘hidden’ objection.

    He’s not lilly white.

  • whodunnit

    He’s not lily white.

  • Cindy D

    whodunnit, i did get that from one guy.

  • http://biggesttent.blogspot.com/ Silas kain

    WHO is the right one? Barack? John? Pinning all your hopes on one man leads to disappointment, daisy. As many critics have pointed out, change begins at the bottom! This means local school boards, boards of selectmen, mayors (even in Wasilla), state representatives, etc. But for change in Washington it means driving Pelosi, Reid, McConnell and other long-termed members out of office! No revolution of our political system will be achieved until we wipe the Congressional slate clean.

  • whodunnit

    Silas Kain:

    “Pinning all your hopes on one man leads to disappointment”

    “Never argue with a man who buys his ink by the barrel …”
    — Ben Franklin

    Corollary:

    Beware the man who can use a veto to override two-thirds of the Congress.

  • Baronius

    Silas, what makes you think that everyone is pinning their hopes on Obama? I think most of his supporters want a Democratic Congress. And since they’ve already got one, there’s more of a sense that the one obstacle to the Democratic agenda is in the White House. I’ll bet that most McCain supporters likewise want new leaders in Congress.

    Taking it a step further, a lot of evangelicals and feminists are voting for Supreme Court justices this year, rather than President. So I don’t think that the presidency is overvalued.

  • Baronius

    Peti – I think PA and MI are more in play than you realize. They’ve both been drifting toward Obama over the past month. This corresponds with the stretch when Palin’s been getting hit. A decent showing in the debate, or any other boost for McCain, is going to “lift all boats” and put both those states into play. Neither state has been much of a battleground in recent elections.

  • Cindy D

    or any other boost forstunt by McCain

  • Cindy D

    McCain BTW seems incredulous that his latest stunt to “suspend” (wink) his campaign didn’t work.

  • pleasexcusetheinterruption

    Peti – I think PA and MI are more in play than you realize. They’ve both been drifting toward Obama over the past month. This corresponds with the stretch when Palin’s been getting hit. A decent showing in the debate, or any other boost for McCain, is going to “lift all boats” and put both those states into play. Neither state has been much of a battleground in recent elections.

    Obama led by 10 and 13 in the two most recent MI polls, he led by 7 in the last Rasmussen. The average of the last 7 is Obama by 7.

    Obama led by 9 and 15 in the last to PA polls, and leads by 7.9% on average in the last 7.

    The fact is neither is in play. If McCain wins either this will be an electoral landslide because he will win CO/VA,NV, OH, NH MN WI before he wins PA, MI.

  • pleasexcusetheinterruption

    McCain BTW seems incredulous that his latest stunt to “suspend” (wink) his campaign didn’t work.

    How does he seem incredulous? I’m sure it’s just an act. And it probably did help a little and may help him yet.

  • http://www.maskedmoviesnobs.com El Bicho

    “Peti – I think PA and MI are more in play than you realize.”

    If MI is in play, someone should tell the McCain campaign since they appear to be scaling efforts down. What do you know that they don’t?

  • Cindy D

    PETI,

    Link

    Also Thursday, McCain jokingly said that Obama’s poll numbers are rising as the economy seems to sink “because life isn’t fair.”

    “He certainly did nothing for the first few days,” McCain told Fox News on Thursday. “I suspended my campaign, took our ads down, came back to Washington, met with the House folks and got on the phone, and also had face-to-face meetings.”

    I don’t think it helped him. It was way down in an article about his support for Palin.

  • Cindy D

    PETI,

    RE#25

    Link

    Also Thursday, McCain jokingly said that Obama’s poll numbers are rising as the economy seems to sink “because life isn’t fair.”

    “He certainly did nothing for the first few days,” McCain told Fox News on Thursday. “I suspended my campaign, took our ads down, came back to Washington, met with the House folks and got on the phone, and also had face-to-face meetings.”

    I don’t think it helped him. It was way down in an article about his support for Palin.

  • Cindy D

    Does anyone have any expertise on this question?

    Do people like being called, “Joe six-pack”?

    Do “hockey-moms” like to be lumped together with “Joe six-pack”?

    I am over my head here. I can’t decide whether they told her to “appeal to Joe six-pack” and she ends up calling people that or whether that is an acceptable moniker in the Joe six-pack world. Any thoughts?

  • Baronius

    Peti (re MI) – Well, either the McCain campaign doesn’t know what it’s doing, or my analysis is worthless. Personally I suspect both.

  • bliffle

    Cindy asks:

    “Do people like being called, “Joe six-pack”?”

    I don’t mind. You can call me Joe Sixpak anytime. And I’m a big fan of the late Art Hoppe.

  • Cindy D

    bliffle? It occurs to me they had a different idea of “Joe sixpack” in mind.

    However,just in case I’m wrong…do you mind being lumped together with “hockymoms”?

  • http://biggesttent.blogspot.com/ Silas Kain

    I’d like to make a comment about Joe Six Pack but the ultra conservatives will want me stoned to death in the quarry below the Our Lady of Washington Penile Monument.

  • bliffle

    Cindy asks:

    “…do you mind being lumped together with “hockymoms”?”

    Lumped? I don’t know, but I’m starting to perspire.

  • Cindy D

    bliffle,

    hehe :-)

  • http://www.associatedcontent.com/user/39420/joanne_huspek.html Joanne Huspek

    I’m glad someone is celebrating. I’m with #2, it doesn’t matter WHO gets in. We’re all screwed.

  • http://ruvysroost.blogspot.com Ruvy

    Interesting article. Everyone seems to sense that this election is extremely important – but everyone also seems to sense that no matter who wins hard times loom. And everyone is assuming that there will be an election, or that if it is held, its results will be respected.

    I agree with Silas Kain, in that it makes little difference whom you choose. There is no “better” candidate. They are all of the same calibre – low. But – I do not assume that an election will be held, and I do not assume that if it is held, its results will necessarily be respected. It appears to me that a crisis of some kind will loom larger than the democratic procedure that your nation has seen for 230 years, and you will be launched in waters you have never swum before.

    In addition, it is my considered opinion that your nation has nowhere to go. The various financial crises you face will multiply one upon the other and overwhelm you. The military crises you face, the lack of funds to run a military, the lack of will to fight wars that do not appear to make sense, will overwhelm you.

    And yes, there will be war. A world war.

    But this is a spiritual crisis, not a material one. And the sooner you get that through your heads, the better off you will be.

    I must emphasize that none of this is written with a sense of Schadenfreude. I have a lot of family in America that should make aliya here so that they will be safe and so that they will understand what they need to do to survive this crisis; they will refuse to do the one thing that make their lives easier. They will suffer terribly. Poverty will strike them, and they will be too old, too dispersed and sick to be able to help each other. And there isn’t a damned thing I can do to help them.

    So, PETI, keep counting those electoral votes and thinking the election is a done deal. Keep deluding yourself, if you wish. T’isn’t for the likes of me to tell you otherwise. But I have the nasty feeling that this time round, things will be different – very different. And the electoral votes and their meaning will be forgotten in the maelstrom that will overtake all of us.

  • carl

    Obama/Biden 08

  • pleasexcusetheinterruption

    Peti (re MI) – Well, either the McCain campaign doesn’t know what it’s doing, or my analysis is worthless. Personally I suspect both.

    McCain announced yesterday he is pulling his resources out of Michigan. This goes with the central thesis of this article that Obama has a lead in too many states for McCain and this will spread McCain’s resources too thin. He could win 2 or 3 of the states he needs to win, but he can’t win all of them.

  • Baronius

    I’m just glad to see that Palin had the same reaction to the MI decision as I did.

    Peti, you’re right that it’s about resources. MI would be winnable, but it would cost a fortune. PA, less so, but these states aren’t free. States with a Democratic history and union machinery present a nightmare for a Republican campaign. It’s similar to what Obama is facing in Virginia, mitigated by the fact that VA has a strong Democratic Party in the north. It’s a high $/E.V. ratio.

    With regards to PA, I think Cindy witnessed one of those unmeasurable quirks in campaigns. The “guns and religion” story broke just before the Pennsylvania primaries, and got a lot of coverage there. So I don’t think that concealed weapons per se is Obama’s problem in that state. There’s a lingering sense of bitterness against him.

  • Clavos

    McCain announced yesterday he is pulling his resources out of Michigan.

    Several weeks ago, I posted a comment on one of these threads saying that BHO had a lock on Michigan – it’s full of unemployed people, the majority of whom are AAs.

    Both kinds of voters are part of the Dem base; in fact, a substantial part.

  • bliffle

    #36 — Joanne Huspek sez:

    “I’m glad someone is celebrating. I’m with #2, it doesn’t matter WHO gets in. We’re all screwed.”

    IMO, reluctantly, it does make a difference. In one case we have a sclerotic old man backstopped by a simpleton, in the other by an unknown quantity backed by an experienced hand with peculiarities.

    I choose the latter, without much enthusiasm, but more out of fear of the former.

  • http://www.associatedcontent.com/user/39420/joanne_huspek.html Joanne Huspek

    Another case of voting for the “lesser evil?” Personally, I am sick and tired of people voting that way. You do what you must, but I’m going with my conscience.

  • DiannaD

    Ruvy:

    “The military crises you face, the lack of funds to run a military, the lack of will to fight wars that do not appear to make sense, will overwhelm you.”

    The solution is to get our ass out of the Muddled East.

  • Baronius

    Joanne, that sounds reasonable. But what if you don’t believe in third parties? I mean, I understand that they’re legal and all, and they serve as a pressure valve and (once) a replacement for a major. But they’re almost always pointless. I look at a guy like our own Dave Nalle, and I think that he guaranteed his non-election by running Libertarian just as sure as if he hadn’t run at all. And even if I discovered that I agreed with the New American Independent Party on all issues, their candidate would never get elected. And what if he did? He’d have no experience, and be incapable of running the country. If I wanted that, I’d vote for Obama or Palin.

  • http://www.artasauthority.com Kevin Freitas

    …always so genuinely apocalyptic Ruvy…

  • http://ruvysroost.blogspot.com Ruvy

    Dianna B. quotes me:

    “The military crises you face, the lack of funds to run a military, the lack of will to fight wars that do not appear to make sense, will overwhelm you.” and adds,

    The solution is to get our ass out of the Muddled East.

    You got that one one the head, Dianna. YANKEE GO HOME!!

  • http://ruvysroost.blogspot.com Ruvy

    Kevin,

    …always so genuinely apocalyptic Ruvy…

    Christians write about the Apocalypse, Kevin. Jews (at least the ones who know their own traditions) write about the War of Gog and Magog. Two different concepts entirely.

  • edison

    I think the US presidential elections look set for a Democratic Party victory in the November elections.

    Obama will be the next US president without any shadow of doubt and its for him to throw it away now but odd thing is why he is not leading with a bigger margin than he already has.

    As an article in the New York Times mentioned:

    “For more than a year, people assumed that if Obama was the Democratic nominee, the campaign would be a referendum on him,” Mr. Harris said. “The economic crisis changed that: the campaign is now a referendum on who can get us out of this mess. One of the challenges for the McCain campaign is going to be turn the race back into an up-or-down referendum on Obama.”

    There has been a seismic shift of focus, now the burden to change this pattern is on the Republicans presidential candidate and with only 33 days before the elections its an uphill task.

    Mccain now has to convince republican, independents and hilary voters that he and Palin can get America through the financial crisis because of better economic policies other than tax cuts.

    By Contrast Obama and Biden have less burden and all they need to do is to keep linking Mccain to Republican party and with Bush in the white house for the last 8 years.

  • Savannah

    Hi I sure hope Oboma wins in November,it looks like he will , i cannot believe what just happened to the people of U S , that bailout on the backs of the taxpayers, we all know the rich pay the least taxes, so the biggest burden will be with poorer class, those who work at non office jobs or that that feed America and keeps the wheels turning .
    My concern is if Mc Cain wins he will go to war with Iran , remember his song bombiran ,he is a military man , and joined to George Bush way of thinking.
    Plus he does not believe in deregulation .
    Does not those crooks that stole money from you people deserve to be held accountable ?
    How can you expect someone the head of finance so rich to be concerned about average person , do you think he is worried about how you will pay for gas or heat your homes this winter?
    I am Canadian ,what happens in states effects us here, especially going to war , we had our prime minister side with Bush and sent our young men and women in Afghanastan, we lost almost a hundred men ,too many we cannot afford to lost even one or the cost either , we need more money for health care too .
    I have neices and nephews in military, i do not want them to come back in a box ,at least in Canada they show it on t v when they do .
    The russians are tough they had to leave Afghanastan , they will not trust Americans, they were there before, they will not trust any one country after what they have lived , they were paid not to grow poppies , this year they had the best crop ever ,Bush said they brought democracy to that nation ,not so fast Bush ..
    I hope whoever gets elected in Canada this month, can think for himself ,and not act and ask questions later..He only admitted that Bush was wrong in going to Iraq this week in debate..
    Savanna

  • tottart

    Yes, I agree – Barack Obama will win the 2008 Presidential election.

  • tottart

    P.S. Sarah Palin does NOT belong in the White House. And when she refers to people as “Joe 6-Pack” and “Hockey Moms”, it only shows how naive she really is. In my entire adult life, I have known only one “hockey mom” – is that all the kids do up in Alaska – play hockey ? OBAMA 2008 !

  • Rasul

    I think Barack will win Indiana.
    I’m from Indiana and I see many people with Barack Obama For 2008 bumber stickers and t-shirts. I hear everybody talking about voting for him.

  • bliffle

    Barack is on a roll. Nothing will stop him.

    It is time to make our peace with the campaign and prepare for his presidency.

  • Kelli

    Well, you can’t really say for fact that Obama WILL win the election. You don’t know that yet because the future has yet to be the present. Having said that, anything can go. The polls on Obama may be up, but that doesn’t mean anything. The true numbers will show on November 4th.

    People act like the Presidents will solve all our nations problems. Uh huh, sure. Presidents are presidents, not God. Just because Obama or McCain makes promises or plans for things doesn’t mean they’ll happen, or will work out. It’s also not up to the Presidents to make all decisions – it’s also up to Congress, the Senate, … which all boils down to us, the people.

  • Carli Cooreman

    I think it’s very good that Obama is on top in the crucial states, and I hope he’ll be on top in November to take his seat in the White House, the place where he can be most usefull for the country. McCain could only try to overrule him, but I think even with his younger Palin next to him, McCain can’t beat the strong conviction of a young man who’s into Change.

  • Kathy

    But, is Obama’s change what is good for the United States economy and security. Who is Barack Obama? — Really, who is he? He gives fancy speeches but there isn’t any real substance other than he will redistribute wealth. Will that be good for the economy? He has only been on the Senate two years and most of it he was campaigning. His record in the U.S. senate and the Illinois legislature gives some insight on what he might do. Have you looked at it? McCain is a moderate and is NOT George Bush. But, he will do what is right for our country. His senate record proves it.

  • Burt

    I think it would be a diservice to this country to vote for either one of these stupid looking donkeys.

  • Al

    Matters not whether Obama wins or McCain wins, the American republic loses. There are only minor differences between the two. This election (as usual) is being stolen… by the media. How? By making minor differences appear to be major, taking sides in an attempt to show that there really is a difference (when there is not), and shutting out as much as possible any truly opposing views, i.e., third parties.

    With the state of the economy, loss of jobs, the impending NAU and the Amerio, involvement in foreign wars, Balkanization of America, etc., this COULD be the last American Presidential election.

  • Meep

    Obama is a good talker, but is he too good? He talks about change. Well, to change the USA will take a helluva lot more than 4 or 8 years.
    Unfortunately, I don’t think people think too much. I think when they hear the word “change” they’ll vote, but if nothing happens fast enough- they’ll probably wish they voted for someone else.

    As for me, none of the candidates are good enough.

  • http://kirbysommers.blogspot.com Kirby Sommers

    Barack Obama: Free at Last, by Kirby Sommers

    The largest turnout for a presidential election in the history of the United States has happened today. It has happened at a moment in history where something called change is what’s needed in our country. And, it has happened because change is riding on the wings of a man named Barack Obama.

    Martin Luther King must be looking down from the heavens above and for the first time since he delivered his “I Have a Dream” speech (full text reprinted below after article) at the Lincoln Memorial in Washington, D.C. on August 28, 1963, for the first time since that day, he must be rejoicing.

    Free at last.

    Liberty and justice for all is Barack Obama’s gift to the world.

    For everyone. For whites. For blacks. For he is both. His father, Barack Obama Sr is a black man from Africa, and his mother is a white woman from Kansas.

    In 1959 the Senior Obama left Kenya and arrived on an airplane as a student in Hawaii to pursue his dream. How different that scenario has been for so many whose ancestors arrived in this country as cargo and sold into slavery to endure the unbearable.

    In 2005 I founded Katrina Home Drive, an all volunteer based housing and help group for Katrina evacuees, and I recall being appalled at just how much discrimination was left in our country.

    During a phone call to a United Methodist Committee on Relief (UMCOR) partner in Arizona, a caseworker told me: “The blacks, well, we’re just not going to let them stay here. We give ’em a one-way ticket back. This town is not going to be subject to those criminals.”

    This woman who worked in a church and was being paid to help Katrina survivors was basically telling me she was going to help who she wanted to, and that did not include “black folks.”

    I urgently discussed this problem with UMCOR’s Katrina Aid Director Warren Harrity and although it helped bring about a “Bill of Rights” of sorts to ensure evacuees were treated with courtesy and respect, the reality is nothing much changed. I continued to see discrimination from The American Red Cross, FEMA, and almost every help group across the country against African-Americans.

    Today Barack Obama has changed the perception of African-Americans as lesser than.

    Free at last.

    There are few days in our lives we will remember forever. Today is one of those days. We will remember where we were. What we did. What we wore, even. This day will be embedded deep into the imprint of our humanity forever. The air is electrified with excitement and the knowledge that change indeed has arrived. Change will forever be linked to the name Barack Obama.

    Every man, every woman, every child is now an equal. And world is watching in awe.

    Free at last.

    2008 Copyright Kirby Sommers

  • Allie

    Everyone, already nows, and it is clear, that Senater Barack Oboma has a chance of winning! I realy want him, to win. But, the truth, is that for both people, that vote for Oboma, or Mcaine,ANYONE HAS A CHANCE OF WINNING! So thats, the mane truth. Anyone can, win this. So, best of luck, to barack Obama and May the one, who is the best win! Go Barack Obama! Anyone has a chance of wining! It is a tie.

  • Zackery

    So, The basic truth, is that Barack oboma is the one for the job! He may win, or lose, No one realy nows! It can be anyone. Realy, anyone can win this election. Its either Mcaibne or Oboma. But, my opinion, is that the right one for the job is of course Senater Oboma. He wil win. What will Mcaine do? He will do nothing! nothing! nothing! he is boring, and will do nothing! Barack Oboma is the one. So vote for Barack Oboma, or dont vote at all. Because Barack Obama is the one!

  • crushKVgirl12

    GOOOOOOOOOOOO! I LOVE BARACK OBAMA!!!! if he doen’t win the elction ill cry!!!! i cant vote cause im only 12……………but i can speak my mind!!! we had a mock election at our school, and a bunch of jerks voted 4 mccain……..to bad!!!!!!! I LUV U KALEB!!!! shout out to my future b-friend…………….in my dreams……..bi gtg……….hope OBAMA wins!!!!! hes won me ova!!! luv ya, bi………megan i mean…..u caught me……….. so long my fellow americans….. i ur old enough u betta go vote 4 obama FOOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • zingzing

    wow. the inner workings of a 12-year-old democrat. it’s scary, cuz it’s true! hmm, hmm, hmm. lalalala. oh dear.

  • crushKVgirl12

    zingzing…….u betta believe it how old are u?……..welll……………..u might not want to tell me but wat eva………..ur awesome i think? dude which gender are u ? well so long………….not just had to cover cause my annoying little sis was watching me………..i am soooooooooo mad at my parents they voted for mccain!!! but maybe i didnt want obama because of politics…email me at 1515ohmygod9 at mail.com cause i cant list my email address………oh welllllll!!!!!!!……….K? u betta email me real soon!!!!!!!!! democrats are a race of their own…..go OBAMA!!!!!!!!!!-megan……….Ilove you Kaleb!!!

  • angel

    duh!!!!!!!…..BARACK OBAMA will win…

  • crushKVgirl12

    go democrats…..im bored………….by4the night…….read my last message and email me…..talk 2 u tommorrow…..if u want to talk title ur message CRUSHKVGIRL12 k?……….i hope obama wins……we’ll see……if he wins ill be soooooooo happy..check in tommorrow u obama freaks(that includes me)!!!!!!!!!!
    -megan HeartHeartHeart hahahahahahah JK!!!!

  • sexymamiii

    obama will win but wont live…..dem white ppl gah kill am out…dem suh racial…god…

  • crushKVgirl12

    hewon!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I AM SO EXCITED, IM LIKE CRYING(and by the way i am white)!!!!!!!!!!!!! except i dont want him to get shot…………who knows maybe the world has changed??? i went to bed at 9 but fell asleep at like 10:30 cause i couldnt sleep……………..then my fav radio station said he was gonna win!!!!!!!! by!!!!
    -megan – i love barack obama!!!

  • crushKVgirl12

    HEYYYYYYYY!!!!!! wat is up….. the sky…. duhhh!… my friend says im dorky…. n shes right… i luv OBAMA!!! somebody read this!!!!!!! [Personal contact info deleted] luv ya c u l8ter bi!!!

  • http://www.clevver.com/funniladi12 crushKVgirl12

    i love barack obama……how come nobody reads this article anymore????….o well ill kkep readiiing it!!