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At Long Last…the Oscars

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More than sixty days into 2006, we are still looking back at last year. That can officially end Sunday night following the 78th Annual Academy Awards. Each year the Oscars are the last awards to be handed out, the final gasp for the previous year, which before 2003 occurred even later at the end of March. Depending on the films, the long wait between the nomination announcements and the ceremony can either build suspense or become tedious. This year with the chances for surprises at a minimum, the latter is in effect.

To that end, I am not changing my predictions made in January. I declared them easy picks then and stand by them now. But to add some mystery there are some potential upsets, and of course my own personal preferences for what should win. For the record, last year I went 6 for 8 in the major categories.

BEST PICTURE NOMINEES:
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night and Good Luck
Munich

Will win: Brokeback Mountain
Potential Upset: Crash
My Pick: Crash

BEST DIRECTOR NOMINEES:
George Clooney – Good Night and Good Luck
Paul Haggis – Crash
Ang Lee – Brokeback Mountain
Bennett Miller – Capote
Steven Spielberg – Munich

Will win: Ang Lee
Potential Upset: George Clooney
My Pick: Steven Spielberg

BEST ACTOR NOMINEES:
Philip Seymour Hoffman – Capote
Terrence Howard – Hustle & Flow
Heath Ledger – Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix – Walk The Line
David Strathairn – Good Night and Good Luck

Will win: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Potential Upset: Heath Ledger
My Pick: Joaquin Phoenix

BEST ACTRESS NOMINEES:
Judi Dench – Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman – Transamerica
Keira Knightley – Pride and Prejudice
Charlize Theron – North Country
Reese Witherspoon – Walk The Line

Will win: Reese Witherspoon
Potential Upset: Felicity Huffman
My Pick: Reese Witherspoon

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR NOMINEES:
Matt Dillon – Crash
George Clooney – Syriana
Paul Giamatti – Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal – Brokeback Mountain
William Hurt – A History of Violence

Will win: George Clooney
Potential Upset: Paul Giamatti
My Pick: George Clooney

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS NOMINEES:
Amy Adams – Junebug
Catherine Keener – Capote
Frances McDormand – North Country
Rachel Weisz – The Constant Gardener

Michelle Williams – Brokeback Mountain

Will win: Rachel Weisz
Potential Upset: Amy Adams
My Pick: Rachel Weisz

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Match Point – Woody Allen
The Squid And The Whale – Noah Baumbach
Good Night and Good Luck – George Clooney, Grant Heslov
Syriana – Stephen Gaghan
Crash – Paul Haggis, Robert Moresco

Will win: Crash
Potential Upset: Good Night and Good Luck
My Pick: Syriana

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
The Constant Gardener – Jeffrey Caine
Capote – Dan Futterman
Munich – Tony Kushner, Eric Roth
Brokeback Mountain – Larry McMurtry, Diana Ossana
A History Of Violence – Josh Olson

Will win: Brokeback Mountain
Potential Upset: Capote
My Pick: Munich

MUSIC (SCORE):
Brokeback Mountain
The Constant Gardener
Memoirs Of A Geisha
Munich
Pride and Prejudice

Will win: Brokeback Mountain
Potential Upset: Memoirs of a Geisha
My Pick: The Constant Gardener

MUSIC (SONG):
“In the Deep” from Crash
“It’s Hard Out Here For A Pimp” from Hustle & Flow
“Travelin’ Thru” from Transamerica

Will win: “In The Deep” from Crash
Potential Upset: N/A
My Pick: “It’s Hard Out Here For A Pimp” from Hustle & Flow [ADBLOCKHERE]

Predictions for other categories

Foreign Language Film: Tsotsi
Cinematography: Brokeback Mountain
Film Editing: Crash
Art Direction: Memoirs of a Geisha
Costume Design: Memoirs of a Geisha
Makeup: The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
Sound Editing: King Kong
Sound Mixing: Walk the Line
Visual Effects: King Kong
Animated Feature Film: Howl’s Moving Castle
Animated Short Film: 9
Documentary Feature: March of the Penguins
Documentary Short Subject: The Mushroom Club
Live-Action Short Film: Six Shooter

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About Chip Ross

  • http://www.mondoirlando.com Aaron, Duke De Mondo

    Brokeback Mountain is a beautiful piece o’ work, but it’s not as good as Munich, which should win best picture (although i haven’t seen Capote yet). If Crash wins, it’ll be a damn travesty. it’s a mediocre flick in ANY company, but with stuff like Good Night…, Brokeback and Munich round about, it all but evaporates. Clooney deserves best director, Ang Lee should’ve got that for Hulk a couple years back. That the acadamy ignore such outstanding “genre” pictures is yet another reason to ignore them altogether.

    An yet we don’t.

    But yes, Munich and Good Night And Good Luck for the two biggies. that’s what should happen.

  • http://www.culturedrift.com Chip

    Of course Crash was the big surprise. People thought that there was a late surge for that film over Brokeback, which looked destined to win a month ago. Hustle & Flow’s pimp song was another surprise. With that I went 7 of 8 in the top categories, and 17 out of 24 for all categories. Not bad.

  • godoggo

    I think the “best song” category might best be put to rest. Even Dolly’s song was a piece of crap (I might have felt differently if they’d had the yarbles a few years back to nominate “Shut Your Fucking Face Uncle Fucker,” however).

  • godoggo

    Italics begone!

  • godoggo

    Or not.

  • Bliffle

    I saw a few of the Hollywood movies and the one I enjoyed most was “Syriana”. But the movie I enjoyed most in 2005 was the French “The Beat That My Heart Missed”.