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One Man's Heisman Poll: Final Edition

Adam Hoff — Tue, 28 Nov 2006 10:12:19 EST

I skipped the Heisman poll last week, waiting instead for the big USC-Notre Dame showdown, just in case Brady Quinn had a 500-yard, 6-touchdown game up his sleeve. Obviously, he did not, which means this race is over. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2006 Heisman winner ... Troy Smith. Duh.Here is my final Heisman top 10 of 2006. 1. Troy Smith, QB, Ohio State (last week's rank: 2). Smith probably needed only a victory over Michigan to secure this award, but he left little doubt when he threw for 316 yards and four touchdowns to lead the Buckeyes to a 42-39 victory over the Wolverines. Smith finished the season as the undisputed leader of the nation's best team and he racked up 30 touchdowns against just five interceptions in the process. While his 2,507 passing yards don't stack up to the 3,278 of Brady Quinn, Smith has the edge in most other key stats, including: QB rating (167.9 to 151.6), completion percentage (67.0 to 63.4), sacks (just 13 to Quinn's 30), and yards per attempt (8.4 to 7.6). Granted, Smith might have had a better line and more explosive weapons at his disposal, but it can be countered that Quinn played in a more favorable system for a quarterback. You could probably go back and forth comparing the two as individual players, but ultimately, football is a team game and the fact that Ohio State ran the table makes all the difference. The Buckeyes held on to the very end and for that reason, Smith should win this award in a landslide. Previous Heisman PollsFirst Edition Second Edition Third Edition Fourth Edition Fifth Edition Sixth Edition2. Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame (1). Even in a lopsided defeat to USC, Quinn kept on putting up solid numbers, throwing for 274 yards and three scores and even leading the Irish in rushing with 74 yards on the ground. That said, it wasn't nearly enough to overcome Smith. Quinn will have to console himself with the likelihood that he will be the top pick in the 2007 NFL Draft. Hundred dollar bills make for nice tissues. 3. Mike Hart, RB, Michigan (3). I was watching some college hoops last week when I saw the finalists for the Maxwell Award (for player of the year) scroll across the screen, and to my shock and surprise, Mike Hart wasn't on the list. How is this possible? There were only three names to be found, which were Smith, Quinn, and Rutgers' Ray Rice. Now, I like Rice as much as anyone (just read a few of these Heisman polls), but I don't see how he can be ahead of Hart on any player of the year list or ballot. Hart topped off a magnificent junior campaign by shredding Ohio State's defense for 142 yards and three touchdowns on 23 carries. He finished the season with 1,515 yards and 14 touchdowns for one of the top three teams in the country. Consider me confused. 4. Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers (4). Of course, just because Hart got robbed doesn't mean that Rice is anything short of fantastic. The guy was the heart and soul of a feel-good Rutgers team that is a win away from a Big East title and an appearance in a BCS bowl game. Rice is nearing 1,500 yards and has 17 rushing touchdowns with a chance for more against West Virginia this week. His second half against Louisville alone should have him heading across the bridge for the award ceremony. And if there is one good thing about Rice leaping ahead of Hart in the Maxwell fiasco it is that voters can't ignore him any longer, lest they look like morons. 5. Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas (6). The Razorbacks' magical run came to an end against LSU, but that certainly wasn't McFadden's fault. Arguably the nation's most exciting player, McFadden put up another fantastic performance against a tough defense by rushing 21 times for 182 yards and two scores. And once again, he even handled QB duties, completing both of his passes out of the single wing for 33 yards (maybe they should have let them throw them all, considering quarterback Cody Dick went 3-for-17). Going into the SEC title game, McFadden has totaled 1,485 yards on the ground and scored 14 times. Give him a seat at the Hilton. 6. Steve Slaton, RB, West Virginia (8). Slaton's story is the same as it has been for about a month: the stats are there, the high WVU ranking is not. He needed the Mountaineers to be in the title hunt and that just hasn't happened. That means the 147 yards per game and 7.3 per carry are just empty numbers. Of course, this is in many ways an award that focuses on numbers, so he remains in the mix at #6.7. Colt Brennan, QB, Hawaii (8). Brennan could make a case for a seat at the trophy presentation ceremony, given Hawaii's surprising success and his absolutely ridiculous stats. However, I just can't see him passing any of the four running backs ahead of him on the list. The stats are insane though, of course. 4,589 yards, 51 touchdowns (against nine picks), a 186.7 QB rating, and a 71.9% completion percentage. Yikes. He should be a prime candidate in 2007. 8. Ian Johnson, RB, Boise State (10). So much for that collapsed lung. Johnson made an unlikely return to the Boise State lineup and ran for 147 yards and three touchdowns as the Broncos finished the season undefeated and landed a spot in a BCS bowl. Johnson now has 1,613 yards and an NCAA-leading 24 touchdowns on the season. 9. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Cal (7). Lynch is a fantastic talent, but the loss to USC sunk his ship. He can pile on a few more stats this weekend against Stanford, but he will go no higher on this list. 10(tie). JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU (NR) and P.J. Hill, RB, Wisconsin (NR). For the last spot, I'm going with two players that were overlooked stars on overlooked teams. LSU is the team that makes Ohio State glad there is no playoff system, because they are the best two-loss team in the country, hands down. Russell has had a really good year for the Tigers and finishes with 26 touchdowns against seven picks, 2,797 yards, a fantastic 9.1 yards per attempt, and a 168.1 passer rating. In case you were wondering, those last three stats are all better than those of Troy Smith, while the TD/INT ratio is in the neighborhood. As for Hill, he had a little hiccup late in the season when he hurt his ankle and had his coach call him out after the game, but 1,533 yards and 15 touchdowns for an 11-1 team from the Big 10 simply has to be on this list. Hill is one of many underclassmen that should make for intriguing candidates next year.

Adam Hoff is the columnist for the Webby-winning WhatifSports.com. He can be reached at wis.insider@gmail.com.

One Man's Heisman Poll: Sixth Edition

Adam Hoff — Fri, 17 Nov 2006 02:24:48 EST

Last week was a classic "just don't screw it up" kind of moment for the Heisman elite, where the top candidates simply needed to avoid disaster to maintain the status quo. Big numbers are just a drop in the bucket at this point and wins were expected against the likes of Indiana, Northwestern, and Air Force. With the big Ohio State-Michigan and USC-Notre Dame games looming, it was just survive and advance for Troy Smith, Brady Quinn, and Mike Hart. Beneath the Big Three? That was a different story altogether. The story of the Week Six Heisman Poll is the validation of running backs Ray Rice and Darren McFadden. 1. Brady Quinn, Notre Dame (last week's rank: 1). Both Quinn and Troy Smith had easy games with big stats last week, which actually helped the latter more than the former. In fact, I think that Smith was able to halt the momentum of Quinn's furious charge with his four touchdown passes against Northwestern and now is firmly back in the "his award to lose" position. However, I'm still going with Quinn in the #1 spot, because my gut feeling hasn't changed. I've been feeling a Michigan win over Ohio State all year and if that happens, the Buckeyes are going to tumble. They are already ranked behind Rutgers in the computers (the most underreported story in college football right now) and if the Wolverines bounce them, they could miss out on the title game and Smith could suddenly become a far less popular choice for the Heisman. And as I've been predicting for weeks, if that happens, all eyes will turn back to where they first gazed when the season kicked off: South Bend. Previous Heisman PollsFirst EditionSecond EditionThird EditionFourth EditionFifth Edition2. Troy Smith, QB, Ohio State (2). Again, if this were an attempt to capture the whole "if they were to vote today" dynamic, Smith would probably have to be #1. But it's not, so he's not. 3. Mike Hart, RB, Michigan (3). Like the stud quarterbacks, Hart handled his business on Saturday, cruising for 92 yards and a score in an easy 34-3 win over Indiana. He's still in a position to pull off a monster upset in this race, drafting behind Smith and Quinn like a rejuvenated Cole Trickle. If the Wolverines crush Ohio State behind a monster game from Hart and Quinn melts down at the Coliseum in two weeks, Hart could sneak past them both. It's unlikely (mainly because voters refuse to reevaluate things from week to week), but possible. Of course, Hart's hold on the title of "best running back" isn't even secure anymore thanks to ...4. Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers (4). I've taken a lot of crap for having Rice so high in this one-man poll all year, so I don't mind saying that Rutgers' 28-25 victory over Louisville brought me a great deal of joy. Rice carried 22 times for 131 times and two touchdowns in the biggest win in Rutgers history and did most of it in dominant fashion as Louisville was completely incapable of stopping the Scarlet Knights' simple toss plays. Rice showed the nation that he is tough, fast, and extremely talented and is finally getting the attention he has deserved all year long. You don't run for over 1,300 yards and 15 scores for an undefeated team without being pretty special. If the Buckeyes snuff out Hart and Rutgers finishes undefeated (which would require an unlikely win at West Virginia), Rice could wind up as the highest vote getter among running backs. 5. Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas (6). McFadden is Exhibit A in my argument about voters not paying attention. I bet if you took the Heisman vote today, many wouldn't even include this force of nature on their ballots, which is a joke. McFadden doesn't have the gaudiest overall stats (although 1,219 yards, 12 TDs, and 6.2 yards per carry is nothing to sneeze at), but everything else is working for him. He's a phenomenal talent with a propensity for exciting big plays. He plays for a top-10 team with an outside chance at the national title. He's the best player in what is arguably the best conference in the country. And he's finishing the season in a blaze of glory. How is he NOT a top-five candidate in the eyes of every voter? Arkansas annihilated Tennessee on national television on Saturday night and McFadden did it all. He compiled 30 carries for 181 yards and two scores and even threw a touchdown pass out of that crazy single wing offense the Razorbacks have been running. This guy is a monster. 6. Steve Slaton, RB, West Virginia (8). Slaton's hopes of winning the whole thing went up in smoke against Louisville a few weeks ago, but he's climbing back into NYC contention after rushing for 148 yards and two scores on just 12 carries against Cincinnati. The guy is averaging 7.5 yards per carry and could wind up leading the nation in rushing yards when it is all said and done. 7. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Cal (5). Whoever said that penalties were a killer must have been thinking of Lynch. This guy was - to borrow from Jim Jones' "We Fly High" - ballin! The Bears were killing people, Lynch was looking every bit like the Next Laurence Maroney, and the golf cart stunt was just the kind of attention-grabbing thing that can give an unlikely Heisman campaign legs (like Joey Harrington's piano playing). Everything was heading toward the big USC game. Whoops. A 72-yard Lynch touchdown was wiped out on a block in the back call and with that flag, everything came crashing down. The stud back finished with a quiet 102 yards and no scores and, even worse, Cal lost a stunner to Arizona. Unless Marshawn runs for 300 yards against USC and something bad happens to Rice or McFadden, he can go ahead and cancel those plane tickets to New York. (I'd still take him with a high pick in the 2007 NFL Draft, for the record.)8. Colt Brennan, QB, Hawaii (10). Ian Johnson and Colt McCoy both went down with injuries, so the gunslinger with the huge numbers climbs the charts. He threw for 406 with three scores and also ran for 60 yards and a touchdown his last time out, so the gaudy stats just keep piling up. And the real showcase games have yet to come. 9. Pat White, QB, West Virginia (NR). Slaton is still the best Mountaineer candidate, but White keeps closing the gap. He's averaging 7.9 yards per carry with 837 rushing yards and 15 rushing touchdowns, and that doesn't even factor in his 1,142 yards passing or 153.2 quarterback rating. 10(tie). Ian Johnson, RB, Boise State (9) and Colt McCoy, QB, Texas (7). Johnson is done for the year with a collapsed lung that had him in the hospital for five days, but with 1,400+ yards and a NCAA-leading 21 touchdowns, he gets to stay in his spot. It's a bit late in the year for guys to be getting knocked all the way out of the running with injuries, since they have the bulk of the schedule (and therefore, stats) under their belts. Same story with McCoy, even though the freshman's injury was far more devastating to his team as Texas lost to Kansas State and fell out of the NCAA title chase.

Adam Hoff is the columnist for the Webby-winning WhatifSports.com. He can be reached at wis.insider@gmail.com.

One Man's Heisman Poll: Fifth Edition

Adam Hoff — Thu, 9 Nov 2006 00:07:45 EST

Last week I stirred things up by putting Brady Quinn at the top of my Heisman list on the strength of a gut feeling that Michigan will beat Ohio State two Saturdays from now and that voters will then return to their preseason picks. This week Quinn stays on top after throwing up some huge stats against North Carolina while Troy Smith had his worst outing of the year in a narrow win over Big 10 doormat Illinois. As Bob Griese said during the LSU-Tennessee game, the award is still Smith's to lose, but that inkling of a movement that I was sensing last week is now a full-fledged challenge from Quinn. I think we've got a race on our hands.1. Brady Quinn, Notre Dame (last week's rank: 1). I received a lot of feedback on my Quinn pick from last week and most of it wasn't good. And I have to admit, I was starting to second-guess myself (although I would just be second-guessing a hunch, which is kind of pointless). Then Saturday rolled around and Quinn looked every bit a Heisman winner while Smith looked mediocre at best. The Irish rolled over a pathetic North Carolina team as Quinn threw for 346 yards and four touchdowns. He has now thrown for 25 touchdowns against just four picks and is averaging 286 yards a game. Smith has a better quarterback rating, completion percentage, and yards per attempt while throwing one fewer interception and taking 13 fewer sacks, but Quinn is leading in the glamour stats. Of course, you can go on like this for hours with these two. Smith has done everything asked of him for the #1 team while Quinn has all the dramatic comebacks. Smith has more talent around him and a better line, but Quinn has a better system for producing QB stats. And so on. The bottom line is that this whole thing still comes down to November 18th when Smith faces Michigan and November 25th when Quinn travels to So Cal to play the Trojans. Previous Heisman PollsFirst EditionSecond EditionThird EditionFourth Edition2. Troy Smith, QB, Ohio State (2). People who think that Smith still has a clear lead are making the big mistake of using logic. Many Heisman voters employ no logic whatsoever, and that is how we wind up with winners like Eric Crouch. In this case, Quinn racking up the stats will sway a good number of starry-eyed voters who love a guy in a gold helmet. It certainly didn't help Smith that he had his worst game of the year on Saturday, throwing for just 108 yards with no scores and a pick against an Illinois defense that isn't known for shutting people down. A big game and a win over Michigan probably turns this back around, but right now, from my vantage point, Smith is losing ground fast. 3. Mike Hart, RB, Michigan (3). No need to move him down, that is for sure. While Michigan struggled to put away Ball State (must have been something in the air last weekend in Big Ten Country), Hart was his usual reliable self, rushing 25 times for 154 yards and a touchdown. He's fourth in the country with 1,281 rushing yards, he leads the nation in carries, he's scored 10 touchdowns, he blocks, he's a leader ... I mean, what more can one guy do? (I know, I know -- beat Ohio State.)4. Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers (4). The Big East had a huge showcase game last Thursday when Louisville knocked off Heisman candidate Steve Slaton and undefeated West Virginia. Tonight the Big East has a huge showcase game involving Louisville facing Heisman candidate Ray Rice and undefeated Rutgers. From a national title perspective, there isn't anything terribly strange about The 'Ville making noise like this, but from a Heisman standpoint, this is pretty ironic. After all, the Cardinals once had two legit candidates of their own, but then running back Michael Bush went down with a knee injury in the first game and quarterback Brian Brohm missed several games with a thumb injury. They are simultaneously playing the role of BCS title game contender and Heisman spoiler. Very strange. As for Rice, he probably needs a monster game and a Rutgers upset to have a shot at getting higher than this on the list. 5. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Cal (6). Lynch rattled off 126 total yards and two scores in the first of a couple of tune-ups for the big USC showdown. We all know Quinn will have his chance to leave a lasting impressing in the Coliseum, but Lynch will actually get a shot at the Trojans first. If the "Michael Schumacher of the Injury Cart Circuit" can run wild and lead Cal to a victory over USC, he will produce the needed signature performance and dilute the appeal of the ND-SC game in the process (thus turning down the wattage on Quinn's performance the next weekend). A real "two birds with one stone" opportunity for Marshawn. 6. Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas (7). Nothing against Colt McCoy, but I have to put McFadden here ahead of the Texas frosh. Arkansas' sensational tailback finally got what he needed -- a game where his final stats matched his impact on the outcome of the contest. The Razorbacks won a huge game at South Carolina as McFadden toted it 25 times for 219 yards and two scores. Just a dominating effort. He's been great all season, but so often his stats don't really tell the full story, making it hard to validate ranking him this high. This time, he got the monster numbers on a big stage and deserves all the credit in the world. I can't quite put him ahead of Lynch or Rice, but he's right in the mix with the best backs. Throw in the fact that he's the standout player from one of the nation's toughest conferences and this feels like the right call. Plus, his carries, yards, and touchdowns are starting to look a lot like Slaton's at this point (although the Mountaineers back has played one less game). If this weren't a race that is 50% dictated before the season ever starts, McFadden would be a legitimate darkhorse at this point. 7. Colt McCoy, QB, Texas (7). Hard to believe McCoy can't move up after shredding Oklahoma State for 346 yards and three scores. However, the big mitigating factor with him is his freshman status. I personally don't think it should matter at all, but many voters will ignore him because he's a rook. This is foolish and you only need to consult some key numbers to realize that: 5 (Texas' BCS ranking), 172.1 (his QB rating -- higher than Quinn or Smith), 27 (touchdown passes -- also higher than the big guns), and 4 (interceptions). I know Texas has a great line and tons of talent at the skill positions, but if you think anyone can rack up those kind of numbers just by playing quarterback in a good offense, then you obviously weren't watching while Drew Bledsoe was playing quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys earlier this year. McCoy is having an incredible year and deserves some attention. 8. Steve Slaton, RB, West Virginia (5). Slaton didn't play poorly against Louisville last week and in fact he finished with 156 yards on just 18 carries. But we all watched as that ball popped loose and Malik Jackson scooped it up for a touchdown. That fumble was just a killer. And not only did West Virginia's undefeated season come to an abrupt end, Slaton was once again upstaged by teammate Pat White who accounted for 347 yards of total offense and ran for four touchdowns. I'm not ruling Slaton out regarding a trip to NYC, but this was his big shot and unfortunately, he didn't really lose himself in the music, the moment. Instead, he lost the football and his chance to win the Heisman. This drop to #8 is probably too severe, but I couldn't imagine leaving McFadden down here the way he ran on Saturday. 9. Ian Johnson, RB, Boise State (10). Johnson just keeps getting it done. He ran for 136 yards and a couple of scores as Boise State beat up on Fresno State and kept their run for a BCS bowl alive. I'll never forgive the Broncos for playing games on that blue field, but I'm trying not to hold that against Johnson, who is leading the nation with 20 touchdowns. 10. Colt Brennan, QB, Hawaii (NR). It was honestly pretty tough to find a legit #10 for this list. Zac Taylor of Nebraska has the same name as a former president and sterling numbers, but he didn't play particularly well in either of his big chances (losses to USC and Texas). It feels like we need a wide receiver, but who? Manningham hasn't played in weeks, Calvin Johnson botched that Clemson game, and DeSean Jackson has cooled off considerably. Maybe put P.J. HIll back on the list? This was a tough one. That is why I decided to go with Brennan, even though he's a "system guy." His Hawaii Warriors are 7-2 (with losses at Alabama and at Boise State) and the stats are just unreal: a QB rating of 190.0, a yards per attempt of 9.8, a completion percentage of 72.9%. Are you kidding me? Then there are the 39 touchdown passes to lead the nation (against just six picks) and the 371.9 yards per game (second in the country). Ridiculous stuff. If Hawaii can finish 11-2 (which would require wins over Purdue and Oregon State), Brennan might just warrant an invite to New York. It is doubtful, but either way, he is building some momentum for next year. Falling Out: Erik Ainge (missed most of his team's loss to LSU with an injury, which pretty much sticks a fork in his Heisman chances).

Adam Hoff is the columnist for the Webby-winning WhatifSports.com. He can be reached at wis.insider@gmail.com.

More Than a Feeling: The Fourth Edition of the Heisman Poll

Adam Hoff — Mon, 30 Oct 2006 19:43:46 EST

There's this movie I'm thinking of where there is a slight, almost imperceptible shift in the way things are. A tiny moment after which things look the same and everyone carries on as normal, but the outcome has been altered. I have no idea what movie that was -- it may even be a whole bunch of them all mixed up. The point is that I felt the shift this weekend. It wasn't so much that Troy Smith had a quiet game in another Ohio State route or that Brady Quinn was doing anything particularly magical on Saturday afternoon, but somehow, someway, I am now sure that Quinn is going to win the Heisman. The slight change has occurred and even though I don't know what it is, or even if there really is a movie like this, I'm going with the whole premise. Therefore, Quinn is on the top of this Heisman list. Call it a hunch. Previous Heisman Polls: First Edition Second Edition Third Edition1. Brady Quinn, Notre Dame (last week's rank: 2). As explained above, Quinn takes over my top spot pretty much on the strength of an unsubstantiated feeling. Hey, if you stop reading this column because I've lost all credibility, I can live with that. After all, I don't do this for you -- I'm here for me. That said, Quinn is looming as a much bigger threat to Troy Smith than most people are giving him credit for. Not only that, but I honestly think Quinn might have the slight edge, all that "shift in time" stuff notwithstanding. Hear me out. Smith's candidacy is tied up in the fact that Ohio State is the number one team in the country. His numbers are really good, particularly his incredible TD/INT ratio and QB rating of 174.3. However, Smith hasn't had any truly monster statistical games and his biggest prime time moment, at Texas, came during the second week of the season. If the Buckeyes lose to Michigan -- a very real possibility -- Smith's primary Heisman argument is mitigated dramatically. Quinn, on the other hand, can survive losses. He had a horrible game against Michigan and people are already forgetting it. The Irish could lose to USC and he will still be a top candidate on the strength of his numbers, the Notre Dame prestige, and the preseason hype. If the Buckeyes go down and voters look beyond Smith for a winner, Quinn is going to look awfully good. Plus, a ton of Heisman voters predicted him to win the award and nothing makes writers feel better than being right about a pick. I'm telling you, this thing is going to get interesting. 2. Troy Smith, QB, Ohio State (1). It's technically still his race to lose, so call this 1(b). He probably needs to pad the stats before playing Michigan and then hope for a big win. It's pretty simple: beat Michigan and Ohio State plays for the national title and Smith probably wins the Heisman. Lose and it is going to be tough to accomplish either goal. 3. Mike Hart, RB, Michigan (3). Should Quinn have a horrible game in a loss to, say, USC and should Michigan stomp on Ohio State, Mike Hart will have a compelling case. He's been so steady all year long and will have an enormous stage. November football is all about the ground game and if Hart can do his usual work against the Buckeyes and lead the Wolverines to a win, he will be tough to turn down. Then again, I'm not sure that anyone else appreciates Hart quite the way I do. Yes, the Michigan defense is unbelievable, but so was the 1985 Bears D. You don't think Walter Payton was still pretty valuable to that team?4. Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers (4). 79 yards and a score against a mediocre UConn team isn't terribly exciting, but since Slaton and Lynch didn't play and James Davis had a real rough outing, who is going to take his place? I never thought I'd see the day that a Rutgers running back stayed at #4 in my Heisman poll by default. What's next, a cure for the common cold? A day going by without The Game dissing G-Unit? The end of reality television as we know it? Hey, if Rutgers can be undefeated heading into November, I can dream. 5. Steve Slaton, RB, West Virginia (5). Slaton and the Mountaineers were on a bye last week, but his time to make a big splash is fast approaching. Not only does West Virginia have five games left on the schedule (giving Slaton plenty of chances to rack of stats and highlights), they also have a huge, prime time game against #5 Louisville coming up on Thursday night. With USC's loss to Oregon State, it just became a very realistic possibility that the winner of this game could be playing in the BCS title game. Think 200 yards and a couple of scores this Thursday could help a Heisman campaign? Here's your chance, Mr. Slaton. (Sorry, I always wanted to write like a New York Times columnist, even if for just a sentence.)6. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Cal (6). Another player on a bye week, Lynch is starting to generate some heat as well. Whether it was USC's loss ceding the spotlight in the Pac-10 to Cal or whether it is just more attention because of the Injury Cart Grand Prix, Lynch is a hot name right now. The Bears play UCLA and Arizona before the big showdown with USC, and Lynch could use some big numbers to keep his name in the papers. 7. Colt McCoy, QB, Texas (NR). The week's biggest riser is a freshman who had a Brady Quinn-like all-or-nothing game on Saturday. A loss to Texas Tech would have ended any and all discussions that involved the words "McCoy" and "Heisman" in the same sentence, but instead, the Longhorns won a wild game behind their frosh gunslinger. It isn't a good idea to fall behind big, but if you do and come back, it sure helps out a Heisman candidate. Just like the Michigan State comeback breathed new life into Quinn's chances, McCoy just became a legitimate darkhorse thanks to his 256-yard, 4-touchdown performance against the Red Raiders. He now has 24 touchdowns against just four picks for the #4 ranked team in the country. Obviously, memories of the Ohio State loss (he played pretty decent in that one, by the way) and the fact that he's a freshman will probably keep him out of any real contention, but this kid is having an amazing year. 8. Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas (8). Once again, McFadden didn't lead his team in rushing as Felix Jones rattled off 141 yards on nine carries, but Arkansas' star running back did tote it 18 times for 129 yards with a score in a 44-10 over Louisiana Monroe. Not only that, but he also did his best LaDainian Tomlinson impression by throwing a nine-yard pass for a touchdown. The Hogs go to South Carolina next week before hosting #8 Tennessee, so McFadden is going to get his chance to make some waves. 9. Erik Ainge, QB, Tennessee (9). Ainge had a very nice game with 254 yards passing and a couple of scores as Tennessee held off South Carolina 31-24 to stay on the fringe of the BCS hunt. He probably deserved an upgrade here, but since I gave him so much rope last week after the three picks against Alabama and in light of the ankle injury he suffered at the end of the game, this seems about right. With games against LSU and Arkansas the next two weeks, he will have every opportunity to skyrocket up this list. He might be the one true darkhorse in this thing. 10. Ian Johnson, RB, Boise State (NR). Johnson isn't flashy, but the numbers speak for themselves. He's first in the country in rushing touchdowns with 18 and fifth in yards per game with 147.6, while averaging a whopping 7.0 yards per carry. Plus, Boise State is unbeaten. So he's got that going for him. Falling Out: Garrett Wolfe (66 yards on 22 carries makes it three bricks in a row), P.J. Hill (an injury cost him valuable stats and maybe some of his coach's respect), and James Davis (also felled by an injury, as well as a tough loss to Virginia Tech).

Adam Hoff is the columnist for the Webby-winning WhatifSports.com. He can be reached at wis.insider@gmail.com.

Heisman Chase: Brady "Houdini" Quinn is Charging Hard

Adam Hoff — Wed, 25 Oct 2006 12:20:41 EDT

It was a big day for multiple candidates on Saturday and one that might have separated the top five challengers from the rest of the pack. The list doesn't show much movement from last week, but that is only because so many of the frontrunners all played well. Let's get into it. (Previous Heisman Polls can be found here:First EditionSecond Edition)1. Troy Smith, QB, Ohio State (last week's rank: 1). Smith is looking like a man of steel right now when it comes to the Heisman race. On Saturday he went 15-for-23 with 217 passing yards and four first-half touchdowns. I'm not sure what else to say. After all, the only threat to Smith is either an apocalyptic disaster of a game (say, against Michigan), or the next guy on the list. So we might as well scurry along.2. Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame (2). As predicted here, the UCLA defense proved tougher than expected in South Bend on Saturday. Difficult enough, in fact, that the Irish were seconds away from losing and knocking Quinn right out of the race. However, just as he did in the Michigan State game, the Notre Dame star turned what looked like sure defeat and total Heisman disaster and spun it into a miracle victory and even more trophy momentum. College football is so dictated by wins and losses that the outcomes of these games are shaping this race. Lose to the Spartans or Bruins and Quinn is finished. However, because he narrowly avoided losses with winning drives, he actually flies up the list. Kind of strange. Quinn took way too many sacks and threw some hideous passes against UCLA, but in the end, got his yards (315) and touchdowns (2), avoided interceptions, and got all the pub for the comeback win. If the Irish keep finding a way to win up to and through the USC game, Quinn could cruise past Smith and into the poll position. 3. Mike Hart, RB, Michigan (3). I haven't seen any other Heisman lists with Hart this high, which makes no sense at all. He's the heart and soul of a Wolverines team that is now number two in the country and headed toward the game of the year with Ohio State. In a dangerous trap game against Iowa, Hart once again carried a huge load by running the ball 31 times for 124 yards and two scores. Slaton had more pre-season buzz and Ray Rice had the bigger game this weekend, but Hart has been the best running back in the country game-in and game-out.4. Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers (6). Coming off his worst game of the season, Rice bounced back in a huge way against Pittsburgh. With people still doubting the Scarlet Knights, Rice went nuts to the tune of 39 carries for 229 yards and a touchdown. That is the kind of game that tells a lot about a player. Plus, I like the alliteration of his name. 5. Steve Slaton, RB, West Virginia (4). Slaton needs a huge game to bound up this list. He is going to get a couple of chances in the very near future, with contests against Louisville and Rutgers looming. If he can post monster numbers and help the Mountaineers knock off a big time opponent, Slaton is poised to get right back into the mix. This last week saw the lightening-fast Slaton run for 128 yards and a score, but he's going to need to go real big, real soon. 6. Marshawn Lynch (10). It was a good week to be a Heisman caliber running back. Smith and Quinn are the frontrunners, but after that it is all running backs, all the time. Lynch had a very flashy game against Washington on Saturday, totaling 203 yards from scrimmage and scoring two touchdowns, including the game-winner in overtime. More importantly, because the Huskies tied it up in regulation with a wild Hail Mary play, everyone in the country saw the highlights from this one over and over again. Those highlights included Lynch looking like Laurence Maroney on the winning run (showcasing skills) and Lynch taking a victory lap in the injury cart (showcasing his, uh, personality). Like Quinn, if Lynch's squad can stay unbeaten and knock off USC, he has a fighting chance. Unlike Quinn, Marshawn plays for Cal, so he will probably need something like a 300-yard game to have any real shot. 7. James Davis (10). Did you happen to see that prime time game on Saturday night? Holy crap. Not only did Davis put on an absolute clinic, but his backcourt mate freshman C.J. Spiller sent shock waves through college football with some of the best stop-and-go cuts we've seen since Barry Sanders. But Spiller will get his time in the future - for now, this is about Davis, who might not be as flashy, but is one of the most talented and determined runners in the country. This guy has been piling up yards and touchdowns in relative obscurity, so it was great to see him go for 216 yards and two scores on a big stage. Throw in the fact that he did it with an injured shoulder, while splitting carries and getting no help from the passing game, and against the number seven run defense in the country and you are talking about a monster of the game. The only reason the nation's touchdown leader isn't higher than Lynch is that he didn't perform any bizarre victory celebrations. 8. Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas (5). Just when I thought McFadden might explode, he had a pretty quiet game against Ole Miss. Despite scoring twice and gaining 124 total yards, McFadden only had 39 yards on 14 carries and once again didn't lead the Razorbacks in rushing. He's an amazing talent, but I'm not sure he's a legitimate Heisman candidate. 9. Erik Ainge, QB, Tennessee (10). Ainge nearly cost Tennessee the game this weekend with his three picks, but I'm leaving him here for now. He threw for 302 yards, the overall numbers are still good, and the Vols continue to lurk as a top one-loss team. 10(tie). P.J. Hill, RB, Wisconsin (NR) and Garrett Wolfe (7) The Badgers have lost only to Michigan and Hill is quietly becoming a monster of a running back. He went for 161 yards and a couple of touchdowns as Wisconsin improved to 7-1 on the year. As for Wolfe, he is pretty much done. Another performance of less than 50 yards spelled doom. Which sucks, because the little man with the huge game is a great player. I'm keeping him on at least one more week with the hopes that he'll go for 350 or something and start climbing back up. Falling Out: Charles Johnson (a shutout on national TV will do that to you).On the Verge: Colt McCoy (keeps getting closer as he keeps avoiding interceptions), Ted Ginn Jr. (with a passing touchdown to add to his mix of eclectic stats he is getting some buzz again), and Pat White (if the WVU quarterback keeps upstaging his teammate Slaton, it will be too hard to ignore him any longer).

Adam Hoff is the columnist for the Webby-winning WhatifSports.com. He can be reached at wis.insider@gmail.com.

Second Edition of the Chase for the Sculpted Man

Adam Hoff — Tue, 17 Oct 2006 19:14:54 EDT

When the Heisman Trophy is being handed to someone at the New York Hilton on December 11th, we might be able to look back at this past weekend as the most important Saturday of the season. Unless Brady Quinn winds up winning it, of course, as he didn't even play.The rest of the field went up and down like a yo-yo. Troy Smith was impeccable and put distance between himself and the field, while it was a grisly day for star running backs. From getting shut down to fumbling to being injured to having teammates upstage them, the star backs were dealing with a host of issues. Obviously, the big story is Adrian Peterson's injury and the fact that his season - and Heisman campaign - is done. But there were plenty of guys changing places. After a "Moving Day" Saturday that would make The Masters jealous, here is "One Man's Heisman Poll":1. Troy Smith, QB, Ohio State (last week's rank: 1). Ted Ginn Jr. (60-yard punt return for a touchdown) and the Buckeye defense got the press after a 38-7 drubbing of Michigan State, but as always, Smith was the guy making it all happen for Ohio State. He quietly went 15-for-22 with 234 (a remarkable 10.6 yards per attempt) with two touchdowns and no turnovers. His numbers game-in and game-out are never mind-blowing, but he now has 17 touchdown passes against just two interceptions and sports a quarterback rating of 172.3. The stats are there, which is scary, because he's already got "face of the nation's best team" under wraps right now as well. If Ohio State runs the table and he stays healthy, it is hard to see anyone else winning. 2. Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame (3). On a tough day for many top candidates, Quinn gets a bump simply for not playing. Hey, if you aren't on the field, you can't throw interceptions and screw up your candidacy. Quinn actually has a big game next week, even if people don't realize it. UCLA comes to South Bend and with them they bring one of the more underrated passing defenses in the country. The Bruins are only giving up 167 yards a game through the air and they have nine picks while allowing a completion percentage of just 51%. Granted, they haven't faced any passing games like that of Quinn and the Irish, but UCLA has played Utah and Oregon, so the stats are fairly legit. This is a game to watch. Which isn't a problem since every Notre Dame contest is rammed down our throats by NBC. 3. Mike Hart, RB, Michigan (7). Here's your big riser of the week. With fellow offensive star Mario Manningham out with an injury, Hart carried the load for Michigan in a dangerous and bruising game at Penn State. While it was the Wolverines defense that was most responsible for getting the road W, Hart did more than his share as well, carrying 26 times for 112 yards and a score. In a nationally televised prime time game, those numbers get juiced a little bit. If Michigan beats Ohio State, goes undefeated, and earns a trip to the BCS title game, it is going to be awfully hard to deny Hart some hardware. Considering how badly the Wolverines struggled when he was hurt last year, I think we are starting see how truly valuable this running back is. And while I know the award doesn't go to the MVP, but rather the most outstanding player, I think you can state a case that Hart is making a run at both. (Right about now, I'm ducking the inevitable "Midwest bias!" comments that I know are coming due to my current Chicago address. Hey, it's not my fault that Ohio State and Michigan are 1-2 in the AP poll and that Quinn plays for Hype University. I'm just calling it like I see it.)4. Steve Slaton, RB, West Virginia (5). I'm telling you, nobody made a big push on Saturday. Slaton was completely upstaged by teammate Patrick White (247 yards rushing on 15 carries with four touchdowns), but the mere fact that he picked up 163 yards and a touchdown gave him some of the best numbers in the field. Of course, he was playing against Syracuse, so you have to temper your enthusiasm a bit. The good thing for Slaton is that he has some big games left on the schedule. The Mountaineers still play Pitt and they get both Cinderella story Rutgers and #7 Louisville on national television. If he goes nuts in those games, he could get a late kick. Of course, if White continues to keep the ball on the spread option and run for 80 yard touchdowns, Slaton might need to track down Jeff Gillooly's phone number. (Kidding, kidding.)5. Darren McFadden (NR). I know that this doesn't make a ton of logical sense. After all, McFadden only had six carries (for 71 yards and two scores) in Arkansas' 63-7 win over Southeast Missouri State and he was the third-leading rusher on his own team. That said, it feels like we need someone representing the SEC in the top five. At this point, it is either McFadden or Erik Ainge, and because I think McFadden might have a 300-yard game in him, I wanted to get out in front of the story. If anyone comes out of nowhere with a monster second half, it might be this guy. If nothing else, find a way to watch a Razorback game, because this dude is sick. 6. Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers (6). Rice only picked up 93 yards and lost a fumble, but I'm keeping him at #6 because Rutgers handled a Navy team that was supposed to give them trouble and the Scarlet Knights remain a great story. Plus, while Rice didn't really boost his stock, he still ranks fourth in the nation at 149.8 yards per game and has scored 11 touchdowns. The possible unbeaten Slaton-Rice showdown remains intact.7. Garrett Wolfe (2). The Little Guy takes a hit. A rather damaging one. I think Wolfe can get back into the top five and earn a trip to NYC for the award ceremony, but his chances of winning went up in smoke on Saturday. Playing against a nondescript Western Michigan team, Wolfe had a shocking 25 yards on 18 carries as his Northern Illinois Huskies lost 16-14. It doesn't get much worse than this when you are trying to pull off a miracle Heisman run from a MAC school. Ouch. 8. Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech (9). Johnson could have used a game on Saturday, because 150 yards and a couple of scores would have sent him zooming up the board. As it stands, he still gets a bump while sitting this one out with a bye. 9. Erik Ainge, QB, Tennessee (10). See above. 10(tie). James Davis, RB, Clemson (NR) and Marshawn Lynch, RB, California (NR) Both of these talented running backs deserve some consideration. Lynch shook of an ankle injury he suffered in the Oregon game last week and gashed Washington State for 152 yards and two touchdowns and despite a relatively quiet year, is ninth in the country with 757 rushing yards while playing for a top 10 team (BCS rankings). As for Davis, he is right behind Lynch with 745 yards, but trails nobody in rushing touchdowns as he leads the country with 14. And with Clemsen ranked #12 and looking every bit like the class of the ACC, he should get a little buzz as well. Could Return Quickly: Mario Manningham (if he can bounce back from the injury, he will be right back in the mix).Tragically Eliminated: Peterson. Probably Done: Chris Leak (rough fourth quarter against Auburn, I felt bad for him), anyone playing for USC (not this year for the Trojans), and Kenny Irons (too injured, too little time left to rack up big stats). On the Verge: DeSean Jackson (Lynch passed him as "best Cal rep" but that can change quickly), P.J. Hill (144.4 yards per game and 11 scores for the Wisconsin sophomore who has come out of nowhere), Colt Brennan (2,271 yards through the air and 23/5 touchdowns to picks for the Hawaii quarterback, who is gaining some momentum on sheer stats, David Klingler-style), and Colt McCoy (don't look now, but the Texas frosh has 18 touchdowns - third in the country - against three interceptions and a passer rating of 175.3 for one of the best one-loss teams in the country ... plus, I wanted to get two "Colts" on in the column).

Adam Hoff is the columnist for the Webby-winning WhatifSports.com. He can be reached at wis.insider@gmail.com.

The Heisman Race Heats Up

Adam Hoff — Mon, 9 Oct 2006 18:38:30 EDT

I'll never figure out the mainstream sports media. This is an entity that has been completely obsessed with the Heisman Trophy for years, no matter what the candidate pool is like, no matter how irrelevant the award seems to become, and in spite of the fact that universities basically started buying the statute 10 years ago through mass marketing campaigns. Now, when the race is truly exciting for the first time in ages, no one seems to care. I give up. But you know what? I still care. That's why I've decided to cobble together my own midseason Heisman top-10 list. This is kind of a cross between how I would vote if the season ended today and how I could see things developing as the season goes on. Confusing enough? Did I make it ambiguous enough to eliminate all accountability? Sweet. Let's get into it then. 1. Troy Smith, QB, Ohio State. He hasn't been incredible this year, but he's done enough to win and his team is ranked number one, so he is in the catbird's seat. He played well against Texas in the season's biggest game to date and no one seems to recall that he pretty much sucked against Penn State (the only lasting memory from that game was that fadeaway heave into the end zone), so unless the Buckeyes lose or someone else on the list goes wild, the award is probably Smith's to lose.2. Garrett Wolfe, RB, Northern Illinois. The diminutive running back from the MAC is an absolute beast. Wolfe has almost five hundred more rushing yards than anyone else in the country, is going for 223.8 yards per game, leads the nation in touchdowns (13), is averaging a ridiculous 8.6 yards per carry, and is on pace to break Barry Sanders' NCAA record for yards in a season. Not only that, but in his one real chance to play against the big boys, Wolfe shredded Ohio State for almost 300 yards of total offense and a touchdown. He probably can't overcome the fact that he plays for Northern Illinois, but Wolfe deserves to be in New York for the ceremony, at the very least. 3. Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame. I don't particularly care for Notre Dame, but Quinn is still lurking in this race. The Michigan game was brutal and served to knock him out of contention initially (and, as a byproduct, destroy the media's will to cover the Heisman chase), but the comeback against Michigan State breathed new life into both the Irish's season and Quinn's Heisman hopes. He's averaging 272.3 yards per game and has thrown 16 touchdowns against four picks. The only guys that can claim better those numbers are "system" quarterbacks at places like New Mexico State, BYU, Texas Tech, and Hawaii. With the big tilt against USC still on the schedule, Quinn has the stage necessary to get back on top. (I have to say though, I saw Quinn play live against Stanford on Saturday and not once did I feel like I was watching a Heisman-winning quarterback.)4. Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma. Troy Smith must really love Texas. First, he lit them up in his best game of the season. Second, a lot of people feel like maybe they missed the boat on Vince Young last year and now seem dead set on giving the award to a "Vince-like" quarterback this season (which would be Smith, of course). Third, Texas knocked off Oklahoma, which really damages Peterson's chances. The Sooner running back was probably Smith's chief competition and had OU defeated the 'Horns, Peterson might have been at the top of this list. Given the controversy surrounding the Oregon game, people really weren't holding Oklahoma's first loss against Peterson. Two losses? That is a different story. Since Peterson trails Wolfe, Ray Rice, and Steve Slaton in virtually every statistical story, "team success" becomes a vital factor. Now the margin for error is incredibly slim. If Oklahoma loses another game, Peterson's going to need Barry Sanders circa 1988 numbers to win the Heisman.5. Steve Slaton, RB, West Virginia. He's got the big yards per carry (6.9, second best among BCS conference running backs, behind Cal's Marshawn Lynch), the big national TV showcase performance (when he had what seemed like 700 yards in the first quarter of the Maryland game), and he's playing for a team that has a legit chance to run the table. The downside is West Virginia's schedule. Not only does the cupcake nature mean that people aren't respecting the stats, it means that Slaton actually gets less of them. The Mountaineers often win so easily that he can't get more than 15-20 touches. He has 30 fewer carries than Peterson and Rice in as many games, and the trend may not change. 6. Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers. Here is your big sleeper. Rutgers is the feel-good story of the year so far in college football with the 5-0 start and Rice is the straw that stirs that particular drink. He's second in the country in yards per game with 161.2 and has scored 11 touchdowns. If Rutgers can get to 8-0 heading into their home date with Lousville on national TV (the Thursday night game), Rice may have his chance to win over the hearts of voters everywhere. After that it is Cinci and Syracuse, which means that Rice and the Scarlet Knights could conceivably meet Slaton and West Virginia in a battle of unbeatens with both the Big East title and the Heisman on the line. Not likely, but conceivable. 7. Michael Hart, RB, Michigan. The Wolverines are rolling and Hart is the best running back that nobody really talks about. He leads the nation in carries (157) and is averaging 132.3 yards for a team with serious national title hopes. Of course, he shares the spotlight with ...8. Mario Manningham, WR, Michigan. Call it the David Ortiz/Manny Ramirez problem that cost Big Papi the AL MVP in 2005. Whenever two players from the same team both have a strong claim for the award, they tend to split votes. Hart is probably the true heart (no pun intended) and soul of the team, but people are going to remember that monster game that Manningham had against Notre Dame. Plus, he leads the nation in receiving touchdowns (9), averages a whopping 22.0 yards per catch, and has an absolutely fantastic name. The problem for Manningham is ...9. Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech. This is the best wide receiver in the country. Manningham has been huge and Dwayne Jarrett would be in the mix if not for injuries, but Johnson is the man. He's averaging 93 yards per game and has scored eight touchdowns, many of them in huge situations. He led the Jackets to a surprising beatdown of Virginia Tech, almost helped them topple Notre Dame, and has emerged as the most devastating red zone weapon in the game. 10. Erik Ainge, QB, Tennessee. How come this guy is getting absolutely no attention? He shredded Cal on national television and recently hung 51 on Georgia - a team that had the nation's best defense heading into that game. This guy has ironed out whatever problems he has had in the past and has the Vols back in the BCS picture. His numbers (276.2 yards per game and 14/5 touchdowns to interceptions) are right there with Quinn's and he's done it against an equally daunting schedule while accumulating the second-best passer rating in the country (171.6). Throw him in with Rice as a darkhorse candidate. On the Verge: John David Booty (USC keeps on winning and Booty's stats aren't far off from those of Quinn and Ainge), James Davis (the best running back in the ACC has 11 touchdowns through six games), DeSean Jackson (with Nate Longshore's opening-game struggles and Marshawn Lynch's injury problems, Jackson has become the face of the dynamic Cal offense with 522 yards receiving and nine touchdowns, while also ranking sixth in the country in punt return yards), and Darren McFadden (the SEC's best back got a big boost when Arkansas upset Auburn and moved into the top 25 -- he's coming on fast).Falling Out of It: Chris Leak (it is ironic that Leak's fortunes are plummeting as his Gators soar to #2 in the polls, but when a different quarterback (Tim Tebow) is scoring all the points, I don't see any other way), Kenny Irons, Dwayne Jarrett (injuries suck), Ted Ginn Jr. (not enough big plays to stay in the top 10), and Lynch.Bonus Thought: Injuries and a tough loss to Cal have dampened this year, but watch for Oregon's Jonathan Stewart in 2007. I'm going on record right now as saying he will be a top three candidate next year.

Adam Hoff is the columnist for the Webby-winning WhatifSports.com. He can be reached at wis.insider@gmail.com.