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Administration0@blogcritics.org Sun, 26 Aug 2007 12:00:00 EDT http://blogcritics.org/archives/2007/04/24/225931.php Will LiIn the first part of this article, I asked, "Is Daisuke Matsuzaka an efficient pitcher?"While I did not answer the question per seigh, I did show that Daisuke was indeed dominant in Japan, with a strikeout/100 pitch (K/100P) rate of 6.71 K's per 100 pitches thrown in his stellar 2006 season. In other words, last year, for every 100 pitches Daisuke threw, he struck out 6.71 batters -- an excellent rate that, if compared to MLB pitchers, would place him solidly amongst the league leaders. This is not surprising given his dominant traditional numbers (ERA, WHIP), but let's take a look at how he has done so far this year. In addition, I'll use the pitch details from his first four starts to take a closer look at his "efficiency."2007 To DateSmall sample size warnings abound in the following analysis, but I think the numbers are already telling.His last year in Japan, Daisuke averaged 16 pitches per inning and 3.9 pitches per batter. So far in 2007 here in the American big leagues?While his numbers are worse after his last start against the Yankees, Daisuke is averaging 15.7 pitches per inning and 3.82 pitches per batter. Pretty similar to last year, it seems. In fact, apart from getting hurt by a couple batters scoring after being hit by pitches in his last start, his component statistics here are not wildly different. High strikeouts, low walk rate, it's all there already. He isn't throwing any more pitches in an inning, and the number of pitches each batter sees is extremely similar.Furthermore, his "dominance," as indicated by his K/100P, is higher so far than it was in Japan, at 7.31 K/100P. To be fair, it is very early in the season, and Johan Santana (who was tops in the majors with 7.14 K/100P in 2005 and had 7.09 K/100P in 2006) sports an incredible K/100P of 8.56. But how about efficiency?Is Daisuke Efficient?As far as I can tell, Daisuke is no more or less efficient than any other pitcher who gets a lot of strikeouts. In a response to the Baseball Analysts post I referenced in the first part, David Pinto of Baseball Musings took a look at pitches per strikeout. His point was that while K/100P may indicate dominance, it does not necessarily indicate efficiency, as he showed in his numbers.Daisuke's pitches/K is currently at 4.77 pitches/K, right in the middle of David's table. In other words, if he's inefficient, it does not come from going into deep count in his strikeouts. His pitch counts may seem high given his low walk numbers, but from what I can see in the numbers, he's what the Boston Red Sox paid for: a very, very good pitcher who will strike out his share of batters and walk fewer batters than average, with fly ball tendencies. There's nothing mystical about that, although there's also nothing concerning to indicate that his contract wasn't ill-advised, and I think his numbers this year so far bear that out. Finally, if anyone would like the pitch data, I have it in a spreadsheet I would be willing to send. Just because I've done the research already, I may continue tracking his pitches and statistics to see where they end up. I would be willing to send updates to anyone who wants them as well. Sports63029@blogcritics.org Tue, 24 Apr 2007 22:59:31 EDT http://blogcritics.org/archives/2007/04/15/210926.php Will LiNote: This following is a post adapted from one I posted on my personal blog awhile ago. I hope to have similar baseball content and essays up in the coming weeks.As a Seibu Lion in 2006, Daisuke Matsuzaka started 25 games, throwing 13 complete games and logging 186 innings. This works out to 7.44 innings thrown a start. In comparison, Twins workhorse Johan Santana averaged 6.88 innings per start this year, a significantly lower number. The majority of major leaguers don't average over 7.In fact, the only people (I believe) who have averaged as many innings per start recently are Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling as Diamondbacks, Livan Hernandez and Mark Buehrle (both before this year). The Bill James Handbook for the 2005 season only has 2 starts in which pitchers threw more than 140 pitches, and both were by Livan Hernandez.We all hear about pitchers and routines. Teams use different strategies in working their pitchers on off days and counting pitches during starts. And while 100 pitches is an arbitrary cut off point, many managers and pitching coaches seem to be sensitive about letting their pitchers work beyond that number.It has been well documented that Matsuzaka works with high pitch counts. Averaging 138 pitches in 2005 and 144 pitches per nine innings in 2006 places Matsuzaka significantly above the point at which most managers will keep their pitchers in the game. I put emphasis on per nine innings because in the past, articles on Yahoo! and The Sporting News have reported that as per game averages, which would be drastically different. Which got me to wondering. How is Matsuzaka reaching 140 and 150 pitches per nine when his walk rate is that good? He doesn't allow that many hits per inning either. Matsuzaka's WHIP was 0.925 in 2006, meaning on average, he allows 0.925 men on base an inning. Is this in fact irregular? Is Matsuzaka in any way inefficient? 138 pitches each 9 innings works out to 15.33 pitches per inning. 144 per 9 works out to 16 pitches an inning. But if he's throwing an average of 15.33 pitches in an inning, and he's only facing an average of 3.925 hitters, that means each hitter will see 3.905 pitches per at bat. Instinctively, this seems a bit high to me.The most economical pitchers throw fewer than 3.5 pitches per batter (Greg Maddux is especially good at this, although he's not exactly a strikeout pitcher anymore).So is Matsuzaka throwing more pitches than conventional wisdom says he should be? For starters...Maybe we shouldn't be messing with something good. If a pitcher is dominant and happens to go deep into counts, should a pitching coach have him pitch to contact more? Let's take a look at how many strikeouts Matsuzaka racks up PER PITCH. This actually doesn't completely give us insight into the above question, but I think it's a start and gives us an idea of how dominant he was in Japan. In 2006, Matsuzaka threw 2981 pitches (give or take a couple). His K/Pitch ratio is 0.0671. To contextualize, here are the top seven pitchers in baseball by K/Pitch in 2005 (credit to an excellent article at The Baseball Analysts).1. Johan Santana, .0714 2. Jake Peavy, .0684 3. Pedro Martinez, .0683 4. Mark Prior, .0665 5. Chris Carpenter, .0627 6. Randy Johnson, .0616 7. A.J. Burnett, .0600Looks like Matsuzaka is in good company - Mark Prior's health woes aside. What this tells me is that even if his pitch counts have been high, a K/100 pitch rate of 6.71 K's per 100 pitches thrown is extremely high, indicating that in terms of dominance, Matsuzaka is near the top.But, this doesn't necessarily mean he's efficient either. He could still be using more pitches to achieve those strikeouts. Later this week, in Part 2 of this article, I'll try to break down some other statistics to get an idea of Matsuzaka's "efficiency." Sports62528@blogcritics.org Sun, 15 Apr 2007 21:09:26 EDT