News Analysis From Israel: Russia Invades South Ossetia in War with Gruzia - Georgia On My Mind?
Published August 10, 2008
Tish'a b'Av,
Ma'ale Levona
On Friday, just before the Sabbath, I got an email from Rabbi Rahamim (Richard) Pauli detailing news he had just picked up from Debkafiles.
He pointed out that the 8th of August was the 7th of Av, the day that Babylonian forces broke through the Temple walls in their final attack on the Temple in Jerusalem (its destruction took place on the 9th of Av), and like many looking towards the Jewish calendar for hints of Redemption, he asked, "Is this the beginning of the War of Gog and Magog [the final war that is supposed to precede the coming of the messiah]?"
Let's leave aside the Biblical implications and what they may portend for the future for the moment, and just look at the straight news story out of Debkafiles Friday. The story as of Friday read as follows:
Georgian tanks and infantry, aided by Israeli military advisers, captured the capital of breakaway South Ossetia, Tskhinvali, early Friday, Aug. 8, bringing the Georgian-Russian conflict over the province to a military climax. Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin threatened a “military response"... Reinforcements were rushed to the Russian “peacekeeping force” present in the region to support the separatists. Georgian tanks entered the capital after heavy overnight heavy aerial strikes, in which dozens of people were killed.
By Sunday morning, the picture at Dekafiles had changed completely, with the Bush administration warning that Russia had to pull out its soldiers from Gruzia (the native name for Georgia). In these later stories, and in other stories coming out of the war zone, Israel was no longer mentioned.
As the media concentrate on a possible Russian/American standoff over Gruzia (Georgia), Israel will drop from their stories. After all, what importance can we have when two major nuclear powers face off? But we will not drop out of the minds of the Russian invaders of Gruzia. That is not how Russians think, and it is not how they work. They will want vengeance on all who have sullied them, and that includes us in Israel.
Gruzian Jewish immigrants have demonstrated outside the Russian Embassy in Tel Aviv waving the crosses on the Gruzian flag in their faces. The Russians do not forget such insults. They are a sensitive lot – brutes with very thin skins. And let's return to the Debkafile 8th August headline: "Israel backs Georgia in Caspian Oil Pipeline Battle with Russia."
So, this is not just over some little province in northern Gruzia – nobody cares about Ossetia, either north or south. This is about oil and resources. This explains, in large measure, the sudden Bush response. Prime Minister Putin, the real power in Russia, is peeing on the shoes of the American oil companies. And Israel has chosen to back Gruzia and the American oil companies.
- News Analysis From Israel: Russia Invades South Ossetia in War with Gruzia - Georgia On My Mind?
- Published: August 10, 2008
- Type: News
- Section: Politics
- Filed Under: Politics: War and Terrorism, Politics: U.S., Politics: International, Culture: Religion
- Writer: Ruvy
- Ruvy's BC Writer page
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Comments
Well, Dan, if you check out the links at this article, particularly on the first two pages, you'll see that the Israeli involvement in Gruzia was rather heavy.
I ought to explain something. When you live here, you meet lots of Russians and lots of Gruzians. I call them by their native name out of respect for them, and to get foreigners used to the fact that this is the way they see themselves.
Anyway, it appears that Russian intimidation of Israel has worked. In this Ha'aretz article on the situation there, buried deep in the text (five paras below where they say mistakenly that T'bilsi is the South Ossetian capital) is this giveaway line:
Israel's Foreign Ministry over the weekend recommended a complete halt to the sale of arms and any security-related equipment to Georgia in light of the recent fighting with Russian forces in the Caucasus.The Russians have scared little Livni into peeing her pants, and so the Israelis are now going to screw over the Gruzians. More sins for the scum on Government Hill to repent - more sins that they will not repent.
This would be a further tightening of an arms boycott on Tbilisi around a year after a decision had been made in Jerusalem to limit exports to Georgia only to defensive equipment.
Dan, do check out my blog article on the Jewish calendar, and the article I wrote here on the same subject, both linked in the article above. You'll begin to realize that much of what I talk about is not blind faith at all.
Ruvy,
I was not challenging your assertion that Israeli advisers were substantially involved; I was agreeing with your observation that mention of their involvement in the MSM has been underwhelming. I will check out the links in your article.
Meanwhile, you might enjoy reading find interesting the newest BC politics article on the situation in Georgia. I haven't commented on it yet, because I am waiting for my blood pressure to return to a healthy level.
Dan
I was not challenging your assertion...
I realize you weren't challenging me, Dan and didn't take it that way at all. I'm sorry if it seemed that way. I did read Kenn Jacobine's article and found faulty - not because of any particular sympathy for the Gruzians or even any antipathy towards the Russians, but because it was just plain wrong.
There are other issues in dispute here as well. It's debatable that the Georgian forces ever actually entered the Ossetian capital, as Russian troops were already in Ossetia and moved into Tskhinvali almost immediately. They seem to have shelled and bombed the city and then withdrawn back to safe territory very quickly, followed by Russian airstrikes against Tbilisi.
Dave
Oh come on Dave, your not suggesting that the Russians would lie?
Let's put it this way, I have a hell of a lot more faith in Xinhua news service than I do in our MSM and I'd place them ahead of anything that comes out of Russia.
Dave
I have a hell of a lot more faith in Xinhua news service than I do in our MSM....
Dave, for all of their faults, I put a lot more credibility in what I read in Debkafiles than any bunch of Commies from China running an agitprop service. We'll see what comes out of all this.
For me, the big issue is when the spotlight will be turned away from Gruzia (and therefore also away from Russia) and upon us for "daring to help oppress the poor freedom-loving South Ossetians".
That's the macro here for me.
Picked up from AOL News while logging on to Firefox: Russia Expands Assault Against Georgia.
In this pro-Gruzian report, no mention was made of demands for the resignation of the Gruzian president, Mikhail Saakashvili to resign. What was said was that Russian military forces are attempting to divide country's transport at Gori, but have apparently been turned back. It is reasaonable to expect that Russian tanks will be T'bilsi in a day or two, although no mention has been made of this intent.
But CNN has played a Russian demand for holding Mikhail Saakashvili responsible for aggession against civilians. The Gruzian president, listening to this, commented that it sounded just like old times.
In none of these reports has Israel been mentioned. The same was true for this report from The Telegraph On-line.
Ruvy,
Yesterday's New York Times said "Georgia, meanwhile, began re-equipping its forces with Israeli and American firearms, reconnaissance drones, communications and battlefield-management equipment, new convoys of vehicles and stockpiles of ammunition."
I'm not sure of the significance but Israel is mentioned first. Anyway, with such arms, usually there are advisors, trainers.
Les
Good catch, Les. Like I said, I'm waiting to see how this all plays out.
Ruvy,
The article itself is very interesting.
NYTimes NEWS ANALYSIS
In Georgia and Russia, a Perfect Brew for a Blowup
By C. J. CHIVERS
Les
I read the NYT article, Les and found it rather thin gruel. The Grey Lady used to be far more interesting. But then again, I prefer a thicker porridge than most.... Thank you, anyway.
Ruvy, there appears to be some spelling and/or other errors in your page 2, part A, points 3,4 and 5.
If you confirm what needs fixing, I'll sort it out for you...
Thanks, Chris.
Michel Chossudowsky at Global Research wrote an interesting report on the fighting in the Caucasus which backs up, in a strange way, the original contention of Rabbi Pauli - that this is not really about Gruzia or Russia at all.
It should be borne in mind that Dr. Chossudowsky writes with an anti-US, anti-Israel slant. Nevertheless, he posits the events occurring in the Caucasus as a provocation to something that can grow far greater and more dangerous than it is at present. That is my precise fear, and my precise belief.
I do not necessarily agree with Dr. Chossudowsky on the surface of his piece; he paints the events occurring there as a NATO provocation that the Russians were prepared for. However, the details of who was trying to play who may be irrelevant. In the final analysis, it appears that he may be right in his macro analysis - that the world is heading for a standoff between the United States and a renewed Russian Empire.
Iran is a mere cat's paw of Russia - but don't tell the Iranians that. If Dr. Chossudowski, and others analyzing this are right, we can expect to see an event occurring at the apparent hand of Iran - but really at the hand of Russia.
The USA has numerical and technical superiority in the realm of nuclear arms. The Bush Admin. has abandoned the mutual destruction doctrine in favor of the "we can wipe them out on a first strike and not suffer real damage" doctrine due to the USA advantage. This has forced Russia into adopting a "hair trigger" policy. They know and realize that in any conflict they have to strike first to survive. If the USA engages Russian troops in Georgia, you will see the Russian routed, but this will likely cause the Russians to launch its' first strike at Babylon (oops I meant USA) and then proceed to Iraq, Syria, Israel, and Egypt to consolidate its' hold on the World's oil reserves thus fulfilling Ezekial 38.
Dangerous times we live in. Dangerous times.
thus fulfilling Ezekiel 38.
There are lots of ways to get to Ezekiel 38. The key element is that there is fighting between lots of different armies, and that someone sweeps into Israel, trying to take over.
Let's have us a look-see, shall we?
First we have the fight in Gruzia to heat the kettle up some, with Russian troops advancing towards the Turkish border. I already bottom lined the security situation in this region, so we have almost all the ingredients of the Sauce of Redemption; all we need to add now is the wine. According to the Butler Report, linked to above, an American-European armada is headed for the Persian Gulf, while the Emirate of Kuwait adopts its emergency war plans. From the article:
Adding to the volatility is the presence of a major Russian navy deployment effected earlier this year to the eastern Mediterranean comprising the jewel of the Russian fleet, the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov with approximately 50 Su-33 warplanes that have the capacity for mid-air refueling. This means the Russian warplanes could reach the Gulf from the Mediterranean, a distance of some 850 miles and would be forced to fly over Syria (not a problem) but Iraq as well, where the skies are controlled by the U.S. military, and the guided missile heavy cruiser Moskva. The Russian task force is believed to be composed of no less than a dozen warships as well as several submarines.The Middle East Times article quoted above dismisses Russian military intentions in the Mediterranean, but I don't. The Russians already have the Gruzians well in hand. They can afford to use their Mediterranean fleet for separate operations.
It is likely that they will.
As I pointed out, Iran is the Russian cat's paw. Putin is a blackbelt, a martial arts expert. He will think of some stratagem to use the minimal Iranian power to maximal advantage. One that occurs to me is a HEMP attack, using an high-altitude electro-magnetic pulse to cripple the United States - whether it is prior to or after an American military attack.
It gets to be fun speculating about all this, doesn't it? Got a spare mechanical generator handy?


The writer was born in Brooklyn and lived in Minnesota for a number of years. There he managed restaurants and wrote stories. He moved with his family to Israel where they now reside. He is published by Jewish Indy, as well as by Desicritics.org.


Ruvy,
Although I have paid more than passing attention to the conflict in Georgia, I had not been aware that Israel was involved in any military sense. Hell, I had no idea that Israel had military advisers there. I have seen nothing about it in the MSM. I looked a few minutes ago in the Jerusalem Post and found no mention of any Israeli military involvement. There were two articles, one titled Back to the USSR and the other entitled Israel urges peaceful end to conflict. Neither reported such involvement. I would be curious to know why the silence on this is, well, deafening.
Thank you for pointing out the fact of Israeli military involvement. I share your concern that this conflict may spread like wildfire. The likelihood that it will do so may not be much increased by Israeli activity, but then again it may be. The former USSR seems to be doing quite a lot these days to reestablish her status as a world power, and quite frankly it scares the willies out of me.
Dan