The Semi-Finals

Germany v. Turkey
It's hard to see anything other than a German victory here. Turkey has such selection concerns - including the loss of star striker Nihat to injury, and pacy young winger Arda to suspension - that they have threatened to play their third-choice goalkeeper, in outfield, out of necessity.

Even with a full team, this Turkish side could not be expected to triumph. In getting out of their group they have exceeded even the optimistic expectations of their own fans, and this lucky streak of scoring in injury-time in three successive matches surely cannot continue.

The Germans, on the other hand, are tournament experts. The were favourites before the big kick-off because they score highly on tactical discipline, mental strength, squad depth, the influence of their huge travelling support, and, of course, ability. They have shown their experience in growing through the competition so far, and in Michael Ballack and Lukasz Podolski have two of the players of the tournament so far. A Turkey victory on Wednesday evening would constitute an upset of epic proportions.

Russia v. Spain
Some people will tell you this is an easy one to call. Spain beat Russia 4-1 just two weeks ago, what's the difference now?

The difference is Andrei Arshavin, and a bit of momentum. Arshavin came back for the Sweden game, which Russia could have easily won by five or six goals, and was astonishingly effective against the Netherlands in their 3-1 quarter-final win. He is now being openly talked about as player of the tournament, after only two matches! He is so central to the way that Russia attacks, with five midfielders all willing to run beyond the ball and Arshavin as the fulcrum to take control and decide who gets it. Then there's Anyukov and Zhirkov, Russia's two flying full-backs, who have been exceptional.

Spain celebrated their win over Italy as if they had won the whole competition, and that would concern me as a fan. It's as if they felt Italy was the biggest potential stumbling block, and now that is overcome they should be able to waltz to the final. Not so. Who could foresee the Dutch being so outplayed by the Russians before? And the Spanish, probably the second-best team of the tournament after the Dutch, will be outplayed again here, in my opinion. At this level, football is rarely so straight-forward as to say that a 4-1 win before means another easy win now. For me, this is another extra-time Russian win.