McCain's Numbers Problem
Published April 26, 2008
The only hope for McCain, given his wont on Iraq, is the notion that what might really be driving dissatisfaction with Bush is not so much policy as it is presence. One of the great disappointments of many Republicans is not the Bush policy agenda, which mostly suits McCain just fine. It’s Bush’s inability to connect with people. In part, it’s the goofy malapropisms and the nervous smile that becomes more prevalent as the seriousness of the issue increases that don’t exactly instill much confidence. But it’s also the feeling that his one true strength has become his ultimate weakness.
Politics aside, the one thing you can say about Bush is that he is resolute in his beliefs. He stakes out a position and is willing to stand by it. That’s an admirable quality in any leader, but it has no counterbalance — he maintains those positions all evidence to the contrary notwithstanding. His willingness to stand by failure and not adjust isn’t admirable so much as it is proof of the onset of insanity.
Bush surrounds himself with advisers who, like their boss, confuse unjustified resolve with strength, but lack the political incentive to consider new facts and stake out an alternate course when necessary. Cheney has no elections in his future. The same is true for Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Where that would seem to foster a more vibrant and diverse debate, like everything else during the Bush presidency, it instead has run counter to human nature and created a country club atmosphere where everyone drinks the same scotch and has the same complaints about the chef. In contrast, Bush is like the fastball hitter who keeps striking out because he refused to acknowledge that the pitcher can throw a curveball. Cheney and Rice continue to tell him to just choke up a bit on the bat.
McCain is not so resolute. If his candidacy and impending nomination prove anything, it’s his willingness to alter any number of positions in order to broaden his appeal within his own party, with one glaring exception — Iraq.
It may be naive, even pandering, when both Clinton and Obama talk about a quick troop withdrawal. The mess that Bush, Cheney, and Rice have left for the next administration to clean up is more overwhelming than the prospects of trying to clean Times Square on New Year’s Day with just a car vac. But at least Clinton and Obama understand the sentiments of those whom they want to govern. McCain is going to pound that square peg into that round hole until it fits, dammit.
McCain likes to invoke his experiences in Vietnam as a partial rationalization for achieving victory in a conflict that defies any such goal. But if he were truly the student of history that he claims to be, then he need not even go back that far. A year from now all he needs to do is re-read the USA Today story and then he’ll understand why his candidacy never resonated and he never made it to the Oval Office.
- McCain's Numbers Problem
- Published: April 26, 2008
- Type: Opinion
- Section: Politics
- Filed Under: Politics: War and Terrorism, Politics: U.S., Politics: Policy, Politics: Elections and Candidates, Politics: Government, Politics: International, Politics: Local and Regional
- Writer: Gary D. Benz
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Comments
The sport of politics and politics of sport suit you to a tee. I had that same conversation with a stranger in a gallery this evening--I said McCain will never win because nobody in America wants that war in Iraq.I don't see why McCain does'nt see that. Bush is arrogant and stupid enough to stay stuck---McCain is stuck without explanation. Appreciated this one, Gary.
Ruvy: I guess it depends on what your definition of "terribly small." Over 4000 U.S. soldiers have died thus far, thousands upon thousands have been injured. The estimates on the number of dead Iraqis vary, but it's somewhere around 100,000 from the figures I've seen.
Looks like McCain is volunteering to Reap The Whirlwind.
McCain's problem is that he can't win new supporters by just slightly changing his positions. He would have to alter his stances on Iraq, Iran, McCain-Feingold, Bush's tax-cuts-and-deficts, etc. by 180 degrees to attract the independents(and some Republicans) he needs.
And he really has no credibility on Iraq. Our military is not sustainable for the long haul there unless we have a draft and a war-tax to pay the cost. It is likely to both fail and bankrupt us otherwise. McCain hasn't--and can't--explain how we can be there for decades without sufficient troops, equipment and money.
"It may be naive, even pandering, when both Clinton and Obama talk about a quick troop withdrawal."
It's much more than that. It is them asking us to beleiev soemthing that they know that we know they will never do. The Decmoracts big win in 2006 was pretty much due to Iraq and all of the promises that were made about Iraq. yet the Dems ahve failed to deliver on anything that they promised.
Ruvy is correect in saying that Iraq is not Vietnam when considering mere casulaties. 59K American soldiers dead in Vietnam compared to around 3000-4000 in Iraq. However Derek is also correct in saying that nobodu in America supports the war in Iraq. This is exactly why we lost Vietnam. The American military did not lose a single military engagement with the enemy during Vietnam. Not one! It was our the loss of our will at home to win that did us in. THis is what's happenign with Iraq. No combatant in any war should expect to win if they are not prepared to make the ultimate sacrifice.
While the Iraq war may be an unpopular venture, there can ne denying, that based on events in the world over the last ten years, taht radical islamic terrorism is a global problem that must be confronted, wether in Iraq today or someone else tomorrow. Anyone who does not understand this very simple reality has no business being president of the USA or head of state of any other westernized nation.
"59K American soldiers dead in Vietnam compared to around 3000-4000 in Iraq."
- Archie/Bing
The implication being "only" 3000-4000, which of course has no meaning if someone never risks being one of the "3000-4000."
----------------------------
"No combatant in any war should expect to win if they are not prepared to make the ultimate sacrifice."
- Archie/Bing
Worthless rhetoric unless spoken from personal experience.
I say again: We cannot indefinitely meet our military obligations in Iraq, Afghanistan, and around the globe without 1) a draft and 2) a tax to pay for it all. It cannot be done, IMO, and to believe it can, flies in the face of evidence, military testimony, experience and logic.
Even Newt Gingrich believes we fell off a cliff in Iraq(but not McCain.)
So, unless an advocate for the war will also advocate and support what is necessary and fundamental to fight it, his opinion is worthless, a belief in what can never be.
I look forward to the crying from the left when they lose another presidential election...I just wonder who they'll blame it on this time...when Obama wins this nomination and the NORMAL people in this country see just how far out there he really is he won't stand a chance in the general election. McCain or no McCain...hell, Pat Paulsen has a better chance! Or even Joe Walsh!
The comment "McCain or no McCain" makes absolutely no sense, unless the writer knows something we don't.
And who are the "normal people"?
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One small quibble with this article;
Bodies piling up in Iraq?
Grieving is painful for any parent who has lost a child to war, or any spouse who is widowed due to war, or for any orphan who will no longer see his parent. I'm not minimizing any of this. Nor am I minimizing sacrifices that American soldiers make for their country in Iraq.
But this is no Vietnam.
The American economy is going over the edge, and the cliff comes closer daily due to continued involvement in the Middle East. And when it does tip over, it will be no fun for you all.
But considering what it could be, the butcher's bill for Iraq is terribly small.