The idea that American hegemony will be eclipsed anytime in the near future is delusional. America is far and away the most developed nation of her size on the planet. This is not changing anytime soon. The American workforce is the most educated, motivated, skilled and creative workforce of its size.

The comparative advantage of America in advanced industries may shrink and the dollar gradual drop, but it will take decades of 10% growth in China or any other nation to surpass America in economic strength. The question is how smoothly can America make the transition to a truly global market without and how much of a comparative advantage it can retain in technology and developed industries.

Sorry for the double posts. I keep posting and when it isn't there a minute later when I refresh, I post again. I'll try and be more careful.

It's often slow, PETI.

If, as I do, you're using Firefox browser, this works for me:

Write and review your comment, then hit "publish," go to another tab also on BC (I use the one I have on the "politics" home page) and refresh it. That usually suffices to speed up the publishing process on the other tab, but sometimes takes more than one refresh on Politics page.

TO PETI AND OTHER COMMENTERS having trouble with multiple postings:

Yes, the site is currently and sometimes as slow as molasses. However, if you click the 'Publish' button and nothing seems to be happening, rest assured that most often the comment will post.

We get multiples because people, when they get an error/timed out message or see the screen just sitting there, click again and again in an effort to get the damn thing to post so they don't have to retype the whole freakin' comment from scratch.

Something I do if this happens is to hit the Back button (if necessary), highlight and copy my comment and then go to the BC home page and click on 'Fresh Comments' to check if it posted. If it didn't, I'll then go back to the article, paste it back in and try again.

At the moment, the dupes may not get swept away as quickly as we'd like. Chris is moving house at the moment and has very limited 'net access, so I'm trying to hold the fort as much as I can. Since I'm juggling that task with my work, though, it may sometimes take a while.

So, to recap, please be patient and try to confirm whether your comment did actually post before submitting it again.

Many thanks everyone!
Assistant Comments Editor

PETI,

I have the same problems posting comments you do. I figured out how to do what Clavos recommended all by myself (considering that I'm an illiterate fool in attempting to deal with computers, that's pretty good....).

As to your actual comment, if you are posting from within the United States please cease deluding yourself. Americans are a good workforce, but they are not as creative as Israelis are - not because they are less intelligent, but because they are not generally deprived of what they need. So Americans don't have to think outside the box or improvise as much as the locals here do.

I would suspect something similar about the Chinese, but cannot speak intelligently to the subject - I do not have enough data.

But that is all besides the point. The problem is that American industry doesn't produce anything of substance aside from cars and boats. Everything else is imported to your country for assembly in the States, so a "made in America" sign can get slapped on.

American labor is expensive, even without the compulsory health insurance that is de minimis in a civilized country. The Chinese, Thais, Indians and even us Israelis all come for less money. And that is the bottom line.

That is why you are headed for impoverishment in the near future. Your government is spending you broke, your oil companies are robbing you blind, and you are not making anything of note that you can sell with cheap dollars except cars and boats.

Nu?

Ruvy,

We still produce a LOT more than just "cars and boats."

My young nephew will probably pay for most of his undergraduate work (at least) with some Caterpillar stock I bought him a few years ago.

Maurice works for a chip manufacturer; we still are the premier builder of chips in the world.

We still build appliances, too.

Most of the best medical equipment is made here; also tools, particularly high tech electronic ones; there are tens of thousands of manufactured items still made here.

We're a long ways from losing world economic leadership.

PETI's right about that.

PETI,

I have the same problems posting comments you do. I figured out how to do what Clavos recommended all by myself (considering that I'm an illiterate fool in attempting to deal with computers, that's pretty good....).

As to your actual comment, if you are posting from within the United States please cease deluding yourself. Americans are a good workforce, but they are not as creative as Israelis are - not because they are less intelligent, but because they are not generally deprived of what they need. So Americans don't have to think outside the box or improvise as much as the locals here do.

I would suspect something similar about the Chinese, but cannot speak intelligently to the subject - I do not have enough data.

But that is all besides the point. The problem is that American industry doesn't produce anything of substance aside from cars and boats. Everything else is imported to your country for assembly in the States, so a "made in America" sign can get slapped on.

American labor is expensive, even without the compulsory health insurance that is de minimis in a civilized country. The Chinese, Thais, Indians and even us Israelis all come for less money. And that is the bottom line.

That is why you are headed for impoverishment in the near future. Your government is spending you broke, your oil companies are robbing you blind, and you are not making anything of note that you can sell with cheap dollars except cars and boats.

Nu?

First of all, I'm very impressed you figured that out. I'm sure I would have too once I identified it as a problem, if Clavos and Dr. D hadn't graciously assisted me. But, honestly, congratulations.

As to the actual content you post..

I'm not questioning the personal creativity of any other people in their daily lives and no doubt people in difficult situations come up with creative solutions. However, it is quite obvious some of the greatest start up business have come out of America (Google and YouTube for example). And besides, creativity was the least important on my list, as I have no doubt that given the opportunity all humans from all places and all races are similarly creative. However, America has certainly provided an environment friendly to economic creativity.

As to your statement that nothing of substance is made in the United States.. the two example you provide of boats and cars probably aren't even true anymore. The idea that substances are the only thing that carry value anymore is outdated. We live in a technology and information driven world and America has had great success at selling both.

The fact that labor is expensive only proves my point. Labor in America is expensive because corporations are willing to pay the high wages because of the benefits of running a business in America. The fact that Israelis, the Chinese and Indians come for less money is precisely why America will continue to have success in the long run. The fact that GDP/capita is so high here is only proof of the advantages our nation has. And these advantages are long term developmental and strategic advantages that aren't going anywhere just because Israelis are smart or China stopped being Communist.

Our government is not spending us broke. No doubt debt as a % of GDP is too high and increasing.. but it's no higher than it was in the 60s. It's a problem but it's not insurmountable and in no circumstance does it spell economic ruin.

And the idea that we don't make anything of note is absurd as the United States GDP is estimated to be 13.86 trillion, growing at 2% a year, and over one quarter of the world GDP.

To put it rather bluntly.. one might even say Americans, as people, are worth more than Israelis or Indians or the Chinese.

ruvy--your cousin is dave grisman?!

damn it.

Also, Google alone has a revenue of 10.6 Billion dollars more than the GDP of Jamaica or Albania and almost as much as Bolivia. Don't even ask what its net worth is probably more than your entire country's.

PETI,

Do I detect a certain shift in your perspective since you went off to college? A slightly more rightward inclination?

Good to see you once again back with us, BTW.

How is college (besides frightfully expensive)?

You may have told us last year, but what is your major?

I'm a philosophy major, biology minor, but I've been taking several political science and economics classes as well because of my obvious interest in both subjects.

So far college has been alright. Some classes have been boring and not particularly inspiring. And the ones that are interesting usually involve hundreds of pages of reading a week.

I wouldn't really say that I've had a perspective change, but going to a college where much of the student body is almost blindly liberal/leftist has led me to reject arguments that have no consideration for the broader long-term economic and political effects. I often find myself playing devils advocate.

For example, the other day there were some students selling candy outside the dining hall. Their sign read "women 71c, men 1 dollar." I'm not exactly sure the point they were trying to get across. But the point I got was that women are discriminated against so they were discriminating back.

What disturbed me was what seemed to be the blind acceptance of this statistic as a problem. Like, any reasonable person has to toe the line and be for closing the wage gap. It's not very popular to consider possible causes such as 1) men naturally are more ambitious 2) men naturally take bigger risks and accept dangerous jobs with danger pay 3) women naturally like going into fields like child care - thereby driving down wages in those fields because of the surplus of labor 4) Women benefit and men suffer because men are willing/
expected/chose to be primary wage earners.

Granted I didn't go to the debates or the speakers that came for the week, so it's not the best example. Another example might be blind acceptance of affirmative action. Interestingly, it seemed like both candidates last night seemed to accept the Supreme Court decision of the 4 conservatives + O'Connor on the Chicago cases (quotas - bad, case by case - good).

So, I do react negatively to unjustifiably liberal positions, or doomsday predictions about the U.S. such as Ruvy's, but that's probably always been true. I still strongly believe that the Bush tax cuts and his entire policy has hurt the lower and middle classes in both the short-term and long-term. And if I remember correctly that's what most of our disagreements in the past have been about.

But anyways, it's good to be back. It's hard finding enough time to post. I tend to get carried away with my posts and once I start reading research I end up blowing a few hours off. But I have been following the election very closely on realclearpolitics, but they don't have a blog to debate in really. I've been reading almost every article they post though and all the polls. Hopefully I'll find time to post, discussions are great. How are you? Dave? How have you been Jet?

PETI,

Read this article as a companion piece to Pam Baker's fine piece, "The Last American".

The issue is not that Americans are no good, but they have run out of rope. The nature of the problem is summed up nicely by Pam Baker:

Show me the American that looks out upon the land and sees closed factories, foreclosed homes and junkyards filled with thousands of repossessed cars and says with anger: "We are a better people than this."

Show me the American that sees Wall Street threatened by unchecked corporate greed and other world markets tumbling like dominoes behind it... and admonishes: "We are a better people than this."

Show me the American that counts our debt to communist China and shudders at the thought of the democratic USA begging on bended knee for more loans to pay the interest on the loans we already owe...and laments: "We are a better people than this."

Ms. Baker is looking for the white knight to lead her land out of the horrible situation she sees it in; I'm simply saying that there will be no white knight, and that America will pass from the scene as a major power - BUT that American culture will continue to spread as did Hellenistic culture 2,300 years ago.

Running out of rope is not doomsday - but you get to shrink in power and importance.

This is part of what I wrote as a comment there.

... I left, and while I did not leave for the reasons that Pam Baker writes this fine piece, I see the decline and fall of your country as nigh inevitable. I wish I could say "unless" - I honestly do not hate America or Americans but despise its corporate culture and what it has done to you all. But the way I see it, the time for "unless" was around the mid 1970's - your nation needed to turn around morally - and didn't. And a lot of that is tied to the corporate culture. A lot of the rest is the result of a people choosing what is easy as opposed to what is right.

I was so busy trying to tie in the tunes to this article, that I never stated WHY I thought your nation was up shit's creek. My bad.

You're a college kid; you didn't see the changes I have. Clavos has, and he disagrees with me, as is his right. And Clavos has the perspective of having grown up in Mexico as well as having lived a whole bunch of years.

But he is still trying to make it in America. I have given up on the country. For all the difficulties I face here, and they are rather large, I see the future as being here - not in America.

For all of this, I wish you luck in your studies; if I were you, I'd reverse the emphases and major in biology while minoring in philosophy. My college degree in political science has netted me virtually nothing in my life.

Can we get this article on tape.

I'm interested in the subject that you want to explore but the article is long.

Their is a significant difference between Pam Baker's piece and yours. While her piece points out legitimate social and political problems, she doesn't claim that there are not solutions or that these problems automatically spell disaster for the United States. On top of this, the problems she points out are often not new in American history, not confined to America among western democracies, and/or exaggerated in importance.

There is a slight contrast between her piece and the claim "impoverishment is but a few short years away"

or "I suggest that we will see the rise of an "Americanist" culture, for lack of a better name, where American institutions are copied, much as the ancient Greek gymnasia were in Anatolia, Egypt, Syria, Israel and Mesopotamia over two millennia ago. This arrangement will last until a new cultural and political center asserts itself and its influence."

or "That is why you are headed for impoverishment in the near future. Your government is spending you broke, your oil companies are robbing you blind, and you are not making anything of note that you can sell with cheap dollars except cars and boats."

The government is not spending us broke. Debt is too high. But in 2007 debt as a % of GDP DECREASED.

Oil companies are not robbing us blind, but their greed and profits are excessive and at our expense.

And we are making things of note - 13.86 trillion dollars worth of things to be precise.

A new cultural center will not arise for at least 50 years. American hegemony will last for the foreseeable future. The dollar will fall, the economy will slow, but as long as firm, intelligent, long-term policy options are pursued, America will remain prosperous and powerful. I think you underestimate how far ahead we are in the game already. America produces over 1/4 of the world's goods. That's not changing anytime soon.

Her piece points out problems which COULD and SHOULD be better. But that is not to deny America's vast wealth and prosperity either.

American pie? Killing Me Softly? Wreck of the Edmond Fitzgerald? Ruvy come on dude. That's show biz.

50's folk/political music... that was protest.
Late 40's be-bop, thence post bop, thence cool jazz, all the "beat" stuff, decried the vast American wasteland... living for the moment, junked up etc....

Duke Ellington once stated (and I'm paraphrasing this a bit) "Jazz is art, Swing is Business."

Your article takes a big leap to equate pop music in an AM and now FM radio format as protest music. Sure, there were a few in there, but wiki some billboard stats and while the Beatles were sliding silly references to drugs or screwing into there lyrics, most of the "business" drivel we grew up listening to was pop crap.

I said AM then later FM... college and other alternative media (shortwave, internet, satellite etc...) radio does a better job showcasing the political and protest music... but formatted radio was junk.

Dylan was Mr. protest for 3 or 4 albums, then he went mainstream... just ask Joan Baez, she was there, she felt almost abandoned by Zimmerman when he made the shift and started looking after his own interests. It was a business decision.

The Music business is definately a business... bottom line, marketing, sales, distribution, etc... a successful act startes seeing payback at about the 3rd or 4th release. Before that, after all the bills are paid, (and tour damages assessed) they are pulling in something close to minimum wage... oh sure there are the outliers, but probably less that a percent.

I just can't imagine Rex Harrison sings MacArthur Park, or the Mamma's and the Papa's (et al) making an earth shattering political impact on my life.

What is pop radio, it changes. It is music geared for a certain age demographic... say 12 to 21... maybe 25. So every 10 to 15 years it morphs. From 20's Jazz, to 30 and 40's swing.... it progesses (or digresses) according to the targeted market.

Anyway... it was an interesting read.