Panic Time in Detroit
Published April 15, 2008
The Yankees had Knoblauch and Jeter, the Red Sox Damon and latter Pedroia. Without this essential style of player, consistently on base and providing ample RBI opportunities for the sluggers in a given lineup, the Tigers are doomed to live and die by the long ball - a methodology that provides neither consistency nor a history of successful implementation.
While Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez, and Gary Sheffield (if his shoulder doesn't fall off) may hit a great number of solo shots, this production will not result in victories, especially taking into account the fallibility of their pitching and their excessive need for a multitude of runs.
While Detroit is easily better then their dismal record, the fundamental baseball indicators are pointing towards unfulfilled expectation. Time after time throughout baseball history, big market teams like the Mets, Yankees, and Red Sox have proven that simply spending money - when done in an unfocused and illogical way - will not bring the ultimate success that is their goal. Nevertheless, every time a franchise dolls out big cash to bring high profile players into their clubhouse, the preseason hype machine will always anoint the unworthy.
The great thing about baseball is that, through all its changes and evolutions, the fundamental principles that govern its laws and probabilities remain the same. While in recent years the Bill James school of writers has quantified these variables with mathematical illustrations they are the same conventionalities (with the obvious exception of the new emphasis on a quality bullpen) that rang true when Ty Cobb and Honus Wagner roamed the diamond and Christy Mathewson dominated hitters with his fade ball.
Teams that pitch well and get on base frequently win championships. The numbers and the history thoroughly back this thesis, and the thesis thoroughly exposes the vulnerability of the Tigers and the reality of their struggles.
- Panic Time in Detroit
- Published: April 15, 2008
- Type: Opinion
- Section: Sports
- Filed Under: Sports: Baseball
- Writer: Anthony Tobis
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Totally valid points.
In the case of Lopez he has definately put up good numbers. From a pure talent evaluation standpoint (however qualified I am to make one of those) he reminds me of Matt Anderson or, at best, Kyle Farnsworthless. You need more then just a fastball once the league gets a book on you, but we'll have to wait and see if he can develope a second pitch to offset his speed.
As for Jonsey, yeah he's kept it together thus far but seriously, does any Tiger fan really feel good about that guy closing ball game? He gave up 64 hits in 61.3 innings last year and in 06 he gave up 70 in 64. That's a little much.
Clete is awesome but what does his success say about the Tigers' offense? With a guy nearly replicating Granderson-like stats they still can't generate any offensive fluency. Maybe when Curtis comes back they can find a place for Clete in left, giving them something to work with at the top, but that's up to Leyland.
Forgive my skepticism on his long term prospects but the Tigers have definately had their share of Chris Sheltons and Ryan Rayburns, as have all teams.
If Clete can keep it up they really could have something nice with the two of them.
"You need more then just a fastball once the league gets a book on you, but we'll have to wait and see if he can develope a second pitch to offset his speed."
You don't necessarily need to change speeds, but a breaking pitch can be just as effective. I looked at Aquilino's pitching splits on ESPN, and it looks like his out pitch is actually a slider. Fastball and slider -- those were Zumaya's pitches too. (Now, Lopez is 32, so he's not exactly a budding phenom.)
"As for Jonsey, yeah he's kept it together thus far but seriously, does any Tiger fan really feel good about that guy closing ball game?"
Even though one needs more than the prescribed dosage of Maalox while watching him ... at least I do. At face value, when you hear about a closer who allows a lot of baserunners and is probably last among closers in strikeouts, you'd think he's horrible. But he blew six games last year. 13 other closers blew more than that, some with fewer saves. It's at this point that you basically have to throw out the stats and numbers and just concede that Todd Jones is an old, old man with a slow, slow fastball, and somehow does the job good enough.
Of course the other edge to that sword is that he'll have the job until he blows three straight games with a 7-run lead. But this won't be until he's 53 years old.
"Forgive my skepticism on his long term prospects but the Tigers have definately had their share of Chris Sheltons and Ryan Rayburns, as have all teams."
Understood, but Granderson will be back soon, and Thomas did his job as a replacement player. Furthermore ... Raburn was certainly a shot of Red Bull for them in the second half last year but ... is he really a Shelton-y flameout already? He's still with the team. Shelton never even made it back to the majors a few months after The April To Remember.
You can definately make that assertion about Jones, and there are definately are a good deal of closers who are far worse then him, that goes without saying.
Jones just isnt championship caliber and neither is the rest of their pen.
My point was never that the Tigers are a horrible team. Like I said in the piece, the Yanks of the 1980's won more games than any other franchise in that decade. They just didn't have the pieces in their rotation or their bullpen to bring it home.
The team is good, they just aren't championship caliber as they were projected to be. They will crush some teams like they did last night but in the end I don't predict that to be enough.
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Well, it's a two-game winning streak later, and while I thought any winning streak would be the result of bashing and no bullpen relief, consider:
• Aquilino Lopez, horrible? His ERA is 0.73 -- One run allowed in 12 innings.
• Todd Jones gave up his first run tonight in six games, moving his ERA to 1.50.
Also, Clete Thomas is filling in nicely for Curtis Granderson. He's hitting over .300 in his absence.
They've got holes, but when nothing was working in the first two weeks, it's really hard to gauge exactly what their problem is. Maybe their bullpen will actually be very good and the starting pitching will be horrible.