Exercises in Futility: News Analysis From Israel
Published April 08, 2008
For the last two days there has been a nationwide drill going on here, one designed to test Israel's ability to cope in a coordinated missile attack of the kind Israeli intelligence expects in the near future. Today, this drill is supposed to culminate in the blowing of air-raid sirens throughout the country at 10:00. Just for those interested, "the country" evidently does not include Ma'ale Levona. At 10:00, sirens went off in the distance, probably in Ariel, and were audible to one with really good hearing. But in Ma'alé, Levoná, 'Elí, and Shiló, there was silence.
Sunday, I was discussing this exercise with the commander of the police volunteer unit I belong to where I spend a couple of days a week. He said that he had asked others in the Jerusalem District of the Israel Police (Mishterét Yisraél is a centralized organization rather than the localized type organization that one sees in Britain, Canada or the United States where each jurisdiction provides its own police) if they had any plans for our volunteer unit in the case of an emergency. According to him, they just laughed. They said the exercise was, for the police at any rate, theoretical.
The article "Geopolitical Diary: An Israeli 'Turning Point'" from Strategic Forecasting, Inc., known to most as Stratfor, is from an e-mail I received. Stratfor's site would not allow access to the article itself as Strategic Forecasting, Inc. is a for-pay service available to subscribers only, with a limited number of articles available for the general public as a teaser. This is one of those teaser articles.
The article presents a different take on the whole thing, given the steady news of Syrian military movements near the northern border, Syrian partial mobilization, and more and more equipment being reportedly shipped to HizbAllah.
From the article:
The code name of the exercise is "Turning Point 2," a choice that bears some scrutiny because code names have become public relations tools. From Operation Peace for Galilee (Israel's invasion of Lebanon in 1982) to Urgent Fury (the U.S. invasion of Grenada in 1983) to Iraqi Freedom, the code names selected by Western countries have less to do with the desire for security than the desire for a clear message.
The article goes on to define "turning point", a term that Winston Churchill used it in World War II to indicate that moment when the trend of the war shifts away from one side toward another. It is a decisive moment, a point of rectification. According to Stratfor, from the Israeli standpoint there appear to be three conflicts that need to be rectified. The first is the Israeli confrontation with Hamas in Gaza, where an extended stalemate appears to be in place.
- Exercises in Futility: News Analysis From Israel
- Published: April 08, 2008
- Type: Opinion
- Section: Politics
- Filed Under: Culture: History, Politics: International, Politics: Policy, Politics: War and Terrorism
- Writer: Ruvy
- Ruvy's BC Writer page
- Ruvy's personal site
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Comments
Dan,
Everyone knows that being sent to Israel is a death sentence to a career in the foreign service. After all, there is only one Jewish state and a whole passel of Arab ones.
The reality on the ground here is very different from the way the media paint it as being. Let's give you a dose of how the JTA (once known as the Jewish Telegraphic Agency) distorts the news to its own agenda. "Settlers hand in army guns" is the name of the article. Only the last sentence of the article (But settlement representatives said that having fewer firearms on hand could make them more vulnerable to Palestinian terrorist attacks.) reflects the reality of the Israeli government trying to strip us in Judea and Samaria of our ability to defend ourselves against Arab attack. The rest of the article reflects the government's smooth lies.
By the way, this particular piece of news - in today's JTA roundup - is at least a month old. That shows you how low we Jews in the heart of the Jewish homeland have sunk in the eyes of these "alrightniks" in exile.
About the same time that I filed this story for Blogcritics Magazine, Debkafiles issued its own "exclusive" on the drill that had been taking place here in Israel.
Apparently, I was not the only one not to hear a siren go off at 10:00 (reported as 19:00 in the Debkafiles report - they'll get around to fixing the report eventually, I guess).
The editors of Debkafiles, who live not too far from the Knesset in Jerusalem, filed this report.
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Exclusive: Israel's five-day missile defense exercise exposes unready home front
April 8, 2008, 1:23 PM (GMT+02:00)
DEBKAfile's military sources report that the 19 o'clock warning siren Tuesday, April 3 - day three of the nationwide missile defense exercise - was not heard in many parts of Israel, including the Knesset - as criticism of the exercise spread.
Most people did not know where to find public shelters - none were marked - and were given no answers about protection against chemical or biological missile warfare. While the drill aimed at improving the warning system to gain time for reaching shelters, most Israeli homes and workplaces do not have shelters.
IDF officers told our sources that the drill, organized by deputy defense minister Matan Vilna'i, has had two consequences: It exposed the home front as no readier for missile attack than it was when Hizballah launched its rocket blitz in 2006; and, second, it infected the entire region with war fever.
Yet prime minister Ehud Olmert never tires of saying that, since 2006, Israel's armed forces have restored their deterrent strength and the nation has never been more secure.
If that is so, who needs a nationwide missile defense exercise? And why did the defense cabinet, playing its role in the practice, talk about setting up tent cities [presumably for refugees from blasted or contaminated towns]?
Security experts point out that the evacuation of tens or hundreds of thousands of people from their homes to temporary shelter is a non-starter. Home front officers say that no one has thought of organizing a system to accommodate tent cities: no vehicles to evacuate distressed people, water, electricity, food or medical facilities have been laid on.
And anyway the country is too small for alternative sites to be safe from attack. Would (Tel) Aviv inhabitants be better off in the Negev under flimsy canvas within range of Gaza?
DEBKAfile's military sources agree that the five-day missile exercise is not much better than a charade and far from demonstrating to friend or foe that Israel is better protected now than it was in the summer of 2006. But the question most ask is this: Instead of wasting time, energy and money on a pointless drill, why does the Olmert government not pull itself out of its fatal inertia and finally use the armed forces for its key preventive mission, which is to wipe out the tens of thousands of missiles and rockets piled up on Israel's borders by Iran and Syria before it is too late? There was more than one opportunity to bombard the convoys carrying weapons for Hizballah from Syria and Hamas' smuggling routes into Gaza.
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When Debkafiles asks "why does the Olmert government not pull itself out of its fatal inertia and finally use the armed forces for its key preventive mission,....?" we're in real trouble. These are old Mossad hands handing a slap at the fellow "at the helm" now.


The writer was born in Brooklyn and lived in Minnesota for a number of years. There he managed restaurants and wrote stories. He moved with his family to Israel where they now reside. He is published by Jewish Indy, as well as by Desicritics.org.





Ruvy.
Thanks for the insights into how things are on the ground there. I usually hope that your comments on life, the universe and everything are exaggerated, but fear that they are, unfortunately, right on.
As to the United States, I am convinced that there is something in the air or in the water in Foggy Bottom, where the Department of State is located. Whatever it is, it has been there for a very long time. Even Secretaries of State who seem competent enough when they arrive soon fall under the influence.
The State Department reminds me of the British Foreign Office as depicted by Lynn and Jay in Yes, Prime Minister back in 1986. In one chapter, PM Hacker had decided, against Foreign Office "advice," to do something about an anticipated invasion of St. George's Island by East Yemin. He dispatched an airborne battalion to St.George's for a goodwill visit. The invasion was called off, and the FO was outraged.
The PM gave all of the credit to one his private secretaries, Luke, who in reality worked for the FO. Actually, the Israeli ambassador had tipped off the PM to the anticipated invasion by East Yemin; the FO would never have brought it to his attention and would have opposed any action at all. Luke had tried his best to conceal the St. George's problem from the PM, but to cover his ass had included a cryptic reference at page 107 of a 128 page file about the Northern Indian Ocean situation.
As a "reward," the PM arranged for Luke to be given an ambassadorship. Luke was desperate and heartbroken:
"'Which embassy?'" Luke whispered, fearing the worst.
'Tel Aviv,' I said with delight.
'My God,' croaked Luke, a broken man. 'No! Please! You can't send me to Israel. What about my career?'
'Nonsense,' I replied briskly, knowing only too well that this would be the end of him. 'It's an honor. Promotion'
Luke was trying anything to save himself. 'But what about the Israelis? You'll upset them. They won't want me, they know I'm on the Arabs' side!'
I didn't speak. I allowed the silence to speak for itself....
I [finally] answered him, 'I thought you were supposed to be on our side,' I remarked quietly.
Luke was silent.
'Anyway,' I said with a brisk smile, 'we need someone like you in Tel Aviv to explain to them why we always vote against them in the UN."
Humorous, but perhaps it provides some perspective on why things are as they are.
Dan