The Browns' Phil Savage: A Gambler in Nerd's Clothing
Published March 04, 2008
The real benefit of the two trades, even at the expense of the second and third round picks, is that it let the Browns obtain players with an established NFL resume. Draft picks, even early round ones, are still a crapshoot and will always be until some fail-safe mechanism for evaluating the inherent ambiguities of young athletes is invented.
But that same benefit of swapping draft picks for existing players is also its downside. Williams, for example, illustrates both sides. A former sixth round pick, he's nonetheless been an effective defensive tackle for the Packers, certainly more effective than anyone the Browns had on the defensive line last season. Likely he'll have a better 2008 than anyone the Browns could have obtained with their second round pick. But that still doesn't answer the question of whether, in four years or less, that mythical second round pick they now don't have could surpass Williams in production.
Rogers is even more of a conundrum. To be charitable, the word out of Detroit is hardly encouraging. Rogers has a history of accomplishment with an equal amount of attitude and defiance. He's overweight and almost seemed to balloon up purposely to make some sort of bizarre point with the Lions management last season. But these were hardly unknowns. Indeed, Crennel admitted as much saying that he felt that that there would be enough stabilizing influences inside the Browns locker room to keep Rogers on track. Certainly that can happen, as was the case when both Corey Dillon and Randy Moss went to New England. But Gerard Warren in Denver didn't work out too well, so it isn't always the case that the players can police their own.
Even if both Rogers and Williams have more upside than comparable 2008 draft picks, Savage's actions on Friday have to be considered as a whole and not piecemeal.
This is where the salary cap implications kick in.
Assuming that the NFL and the players ultimately solve their differences with respect to the collective bargaining agreement and a similar salary cap stays in place for the foreseeable future, the signings of Anderson, Williams, Rogers, and Donte' Stallworth have the potential to linger far longer than any 2008 contributions. While the full details of the contracts of each haven't been disclosed yet, what has been reported with respect to guaranteed money is quite instructive and not just because it will require owner Randy Lerner to dip a bit further into his fortune.
Williams is slated for at least $16 million in guaranteed money on his six-year contract. Stallworth has about $10 million in guaranteed money on a seven-year contract, and Rogers has $18 million guaranteed on a six-year contract. Anderson has somewhere between $14.5 and 15.5 million in guaranteed money on his three-year contract. Since salaries are rarely guaranteed, these dollars likely represent a combination of signing and roster bonuses, perhaps easily achievable performance bonuses as well.
- The Browns' Phil Savage: A Gambler in Nerd's Clothing
- Published: March 04, 2008
- Type: Opinion
- Section: Sports
- Filed Under: Sports: Football (American)
- Writer: Gary D. Benz
- Gary D. Benz's BC Writer page
- Gary D. Benz's personal site
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Josh:
The Browns have taken a step forward with these signings just as they did a year ago. The drafting of Joe Thomas helped tremendously as well. They are now much closer to being a legitimate contender than anytime since they returned. That doesn't mean this isn't a gamble. There are too many examples of teams that "went for it all" only to wind up in salary cap hell down the road and without a Super Bowl ring to show for it. That doesn't mean that will happen to the Browns, but Savage has certainly introduced that element with the signings, the length of the contracts (done for cap purposes) and the guaranteed money.
i think crennel has a point. i dont think that, given where cleveland would be drafting, the talent they would acquire in the draft would be significantly better than the talent they acquired FOR those picks. The QB's who are worthy of a later first round pick are probably on par with quinn, the #2 WR's in the draft are probably on par with stallworth.
granted, they WAY overpaid for stallworth, but perhaps they're thinking he can have the same kind of runoff success playing behind braylon edwards that he had playing behind moss. not even a remotely outlandish assumption, but certainly not worth a seven year contract. (i personally would have thrown a take-it-or-leave-it four year 20 million deal at him. that seems about what stallworth is worth)
Gary,
Are you saying that Phil Savage is the NFL-equivalent of a "North Coast Opie" in elf's clothing?
Regardless, I have the utmost faith in Phil Savage - AND his talent evaluation abilities.
That being said, I am also not completely comfortable trading away all of our draft picks either - but I think Savage has done a great job in free agency this year (and beyond), nonetheless.
However, I don't necessarily agree with paying Derek Anderson the kind of "Tom Brady money" that the Browns have given to D.A. in the meantime.
I would have LOVED to trade Anderson to the Dolphins in exchange for a shot at Darren McFadden - but, with Bill Parcells large and in charge, that probably was never going to happen.
Whatever the case, I can at least gasp a sigh of relief knowing that the Browns have TWO good quarterbacks in their offensive arsenal.
Or so it would seem...
Gary, nice piece, you're a good writer.
I'll agree that these moves were indeed gambles, but you failed to point out that this is a very weak draft class. In my opinion, that's what motivated Savage to move the picks. I also think Savage realized that there was no QB coming out this year that had Quinn's ability- so looking at BQ as this year's first rounder is very logical.
Let's just say, I'm not sold on Matt Ryan, and honestly, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see Quinn starting for the Browns in '09.
Add your comment, speak your mind
(Or ping: http://blogcritics.org/mt/tb/74456)
Gary -
I can summarize your article in a couple simple statements.
This time of year when a team signs free agents or makes trades for players that people have heard of (at least knowledgeable football fans) it makes a splash and is viewed as daring.
No one knows the future. I'm not sure if I'd feel any better if we had any of those draft picks and needed to find run stoppers and a second WR. Not to mention, do you really think its not an advantage to have guys who have played a few years as opposed to rookie draft picks who have never played at this level?
Whether or not the Browns are really SB contenders yet isn't entirely the issue. In my opinion they've turned the corner from a perenial expansion roster void of first string talent, to a team with legitimate stars to build around.
Do you really think there is such a large gap between the bottom and the top of the NFL? I think with even a mediocre run defense (say ranked 15th) the Browns would not only have won the division but also probably advanced at least a round in the playoffs.
My final assessment is that your article really doesn't say anything. Savage is taking a risk with free agents as opposed to taking a risk with draft picks. And don't forget that the Browns #1 pick in the 2008 draft is now a one year veteran of their team.
Best,
Josh