My Oscar Predictions: 2008 Edition
Published February 22, 2008
Each year the Academy gathers and votes on the best films of the year. Sometimes they are right, sometimes they are wrong, and sometimes the best films aren't even nominated!
Of course, awards in general are mere marketing tools. Yes, the nominated films are all worthy of being there (more or less), but whether or not they can be considered the best is purely subjective. By extension, anyone else's choices are also subjective, but it is fun to make guesses, right? Anyway, as a lover of movies I would be remiss if I did not toss my hat in the ring.
Read on to discover who I think will win, who I'd like to see win, and one choice for the ever-present "overlooked" category. The categories are in the same order as on the Oscar page, where all of the nominees are listed, but I've left off the few in which I haven't seen any of the nominated films.
Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role:
- Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis in There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
- Who I'd Like: See above.
- Overlooked: Samuel L. Jackson in Black Snake Moan.
- Notes: There is not a single person who has given a performance better than Daniel Day-Lewis. He is simply captivating as the turn of the century oil man. Now, even without winning, Jackson needs to be recognized for his raw, emotional performance as a man looking for redemption.
Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role:
- Will Win: Javier Bardem in No Country for Old Men (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
- Who I'd Like: See above.
- Overlooked: Ben Foster in 3:10 to Yuma.
- Notes: Bardem deserves it, hands down. He gave us one of the best villains ever created. Foster does deserve notice, not just for his scene-stealing performance in Yuma, but for his creepy presence in the mediocre 30 Days of Night. This is a guy who has great things ahead of him.
Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role:
- Will Win: Julie Christie in Away from Her (Lionsgate)
- Who I'd Like: Ellen Page in Juno (A Mandate Pictures/Mr. Mudd Production)
- Overlooked: Christina Ricci in Black Snake Moan.
- Notes: Ricci gave a soul-baring (and physically baring) performance that left her open and raw to the world. Very good work that should be recognized. However, I am very much rooting for Ellen Page to pull the upset. As for the winner, it could be someone I haven't mentioned, it is a very open field.
Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role:
- Will Win: Cate Blanchett in I'm Not There (The Weinstein Company)
- Who I'd Like: Amy Ryan in Gone Baby Gone (Miramax)
- Overlooked: Imelda Staunton in Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix.
- Notes: Generally, franchises get the shaft for acting awards, but in this case they should have made an exception. Staunton's performance was deliciously evil; I really hated her character, very effective. There are some rumblings for Ruby Dee, but I think the winner will be one of the two I have named above.
Christopher Beaumont spends much of his time writing about entertainment when he isn't sitting in a movie theater. He is known around the office as the "Movie Guy" and is always ready to talk about his favorite form of entertainment and offer up recommendations. Interests include science fiction, horror, and metal music. His writings can be found at Draven99's Musings and Draven99's Media Center. 
- My Oscar Predictions: 2008 Edition
- Published: February 22, 2008
- Type: Opinion
- Section: Video
- Filed Under: Video: Awards Shows, Video: Film and TV Business
- Part of a feature: Movie Recap
- Writer: Chris Beaumont
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Comments on this articleComments
Thanks, Brian. DOn't get me wrong, I did not mean to imply that Paprika was better than Ratatouille. I feel the Pixar film was by far the best animated feature of the year. Period, end of story. It even made my top ten. It is beeautifully animated, wonderfully told, it was just a wonderful movie.
I do agree with the much in need of update attitudes in AMerica regarding animation, at least in the mainstream. It does help that Persepolis was nominated, it was a mature, adult animated feature.
Sorry if I misread, I tend to do that when someone else mentions a film(or cd) I love...
I agree that it helps that Persepolis was nominated though,imo, the movie looks pretty weak in the animation department & doesn't even compare to Paprika. I guess,maybe, they are focusing on the storyline which,hopefully, will open some doors for other films.
No problem, Brian! Persepolis is a good, personal film. The animation is simplistic in nature but has a very distinctive feel and is well worthy of its nomination. It very easily cold have been a live action, but it's simplicity and primarily black and white look give it a uniqueness that is refreshing without being overbearing.
Jordan,
It was a 2006 film, but it was not released theatrically in the US until 2007, making it an eligible film. 2006 it would have been eligible in the Best Foreign Language, but not for Best Animated, since it hadn't had a US release yet, now that it has, it is. I hope that made sense.... An example of a film nominated for awards in consecutive ceremonies is City of God, one year as Best Foreign and the next it was up for Best Director.
Ah, that's right. Thanks for clearing that up, Chris.
Nice article, btw.
How could Sweeney Todd be up for original screenplay? Even Borat, which was all original material, was nominated for adapted because it was based on the TV show.
You are right that films need to be shown in their home countries first but City of God was not nominated in consecutive years. It wasn't nominated for Best Foreign Film and if it had been, it would not have been ineligible the following year.
Rule 14 from the Academy website: Films nominated for the Best Foreign Language Film Award shall not be eligible for Academy Award consideration in any category in any subsequent awards year.
I hope you are right about Sound Mixing because Kevin O'Connell from Transformers is 0-20 at the Oscars. Susan Lucci thinks that's a bad losing streak.
It wasn't? Man what am I thinking of then... exposing my ignorance once again....
As for Sweeney, well that was just a flat out screw up, I know it's not an original.. busted.
Greenwood's score for There Will Be Blood wasn't eligible for Original Score, since much of the music had been composed for other works originally.
It's a shame that The Diving Bell and The Butterfly wasn't nominated for Best Picture - it's definitely the best film of the year. Hopefully it will at least pull out a win in the cinematography category, but it's extremely doubtful that it will win in the directing or adapted screenplay.
Was not aware of Greenwood's ineligibility. Do you know where the material appeared originally?
but it's simplicity and primarily black and white look give it a uniqueness that is refreshing without being overbearing.
I guess... To me,that kind of animation seems to be a cop out of sorts. I think it would down-play the importance of such a message but that's my opinion.
Honestly, the animation isn't really that unique or refreshing,no offense. It kinda reminds me of Madeline but I'm trying not to be rude. It doesn't seem like the french have progressed in this area which is rather odd considering that they are supposed to be the ultimate destination for art. Though, I don't think Madeline was made in France.
I guess, I just feel that Paprika was absolutely brilliant & it didn't have to touch upon actual human tragedy to stand out...
Ditto Dusty on Diving Bell. It deserves a "Best Picture" nom. Let's hope it brings home the bacon for cinematography.
Good article Chris.
guppy... french animation is the shit. have you never heard of sylvain chomet? and persepolis is amazing. the animation is very fluid and life-like in its simplicity.
japanese animation is certainly good, although a bit flashy. miyazaki is a true master, as is his partner at studio ghibli... but there hasn't been much coming out of japan lately that has really impressed me.
Chomet's good, but he's not really done many films. Les Triplettes de Belleville was good and his short The Old Lady and the Pigeons was entertaining, but I'd like to see more from him before I'd personally cite him. He has a new film coming in 2009, but there aren't many details about it.
Other than Chomet, there's Michel Ocelot (who has had stuff released through Ghibli) and obviously Vincent Paronnaud, who did Persepolis. Rene Laloux MAY be someone I'd consider, but I don't know that French animation really stands out apart from them in my mind. Do you have any other recommendations, zingzing?
As for Japanese animation, there's a long list of stuff that's impressed me:
Satoshi Kon, obviously. His films are anything but flashy and his stories are immense.
Osamu Dezaki is remarkably talented, too, although I'm embarrassingly ignorant of most of his work. His 2007 film Clannad was quite nicely done.
Shigeyuki Hayashi (Rintaro) is obviously a great one. 2001's Metropolis is an awesome film.
Yoshiaki Kawajiri is another good one.
You already mentioned Miyazaki and Isao Takahata, who are truly great.
There's also Katsuhiro Otomo, Shinji Aramaki, Shinichirō Watanabe, and Mamoru Oshii. Personally, I find anime to be one of the more compelling and adventurous art forms in the world right now. Nobody is taking the strides the Japanese are taking with animation, but there is some good stuff out there to check out.
Oscar for Best Suit Tailor goes to George Clooneys costumer in "Michael Clayton". Perfect.
The Golden Compass, best visual effects? Really? ....
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Great Predicitions...
Here is where I am out of my territory but I would have to agree with you that Paprika was a far better film than Ratatouille.
The major difference is that Satoshi Kon's masterpiece is a film for adults & showcases some of the best artwork,storyline & music I have ever witnessed in Anime since Ghost in the Shell & Akira. IMHO,I believe this movie surpasses those two pioneering titles.
The big problem in this country is that animation is still considered for children & movies like Ratatouille do not showcase the imagination or cover the social & mental ground that anime does. For animation, these movies can make you forget that you're watching animation & I feel that they could hold up against the best live-action movies we have to offer.
Don't get me wrong, I love alot of these Pixar films just like the next person but I do feel they have lost their innovation over time & they are constantly immature. I would love to see Pixar release an adult title that would rival the work by Katsuhiro Otomo(Akira,Steamboy) or Satoshi Kon...