In which I actually say a Michael Bay film should win an Oscar...

VISUAL EFFECTS

• The Golden Compass
• Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
• Transformers

Will Win: Transformers
Should Win: Transformers

Now, 300 didn't come out in 2007, right? Because I'm sure if it had, it would be in this category seeing as it was one of the most visually sumptuous and groundbreaking FX achievements of that or any other year. It would be silly, really, to nominate anything else before it, especially if the effects in this hypothetical movie that replaced 300 were subpar in some way, like, I don't know, having polar bears that occasionally look really fake or something. Never happen.

I guess I can't complain too much. The Visual Effects Society ignored 300, too, but at least they acknowledged Harry Potter. They also loved them some Transformers, and seeing as this is the one aspect pretty much every Academy voter can say they liked about the third-highest-grossing film of the year, I'd say it's got a good shot.

Of the nominated flicks, I'd say Transformers has the most consistently convincing FX, and that opening sequence alone is worth the price of admission. Say what you will about his range, Michael Bay knows how to blow shit up.

ANIMATED FEATURE

• Persepolis
• Ratatouille
• Surf's Up

Will Win: Ratatouille
Should Win: Ratatouille

First, let me bitch one last time about The Simpsons Movie not making it past Surf's Up. There. I'm over it.

There's no real contest here. Critics agree. Audiences agree. Yadda, yadda, yadda. Chalk another one up for Pixar.

I enjoyed Ratatouille thoroughly and consider it Top Shelf Pixar, but I haven't actually seen Persepolis, and I have the feeling it's the kind of movie that could make a serious dent. So put an asterisk next to my "should." Go ahead. I'll wait.

THE ROGER DEAKINS AWARD, UM, I MEAN CINEMATOGRAPHY

• The Assassination of Jesse James That I'm Still Waiting for in My Netflix Queue
• Atonement
• The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
• No Country for Old Men
• There Will Be Blood

Will Win: There Will Be Blood
Should Win: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

This is a close, close category. I only call it the Roger Deakins award because between his work in Assassination (five critics circle wins) and No Country (four wins, including a BAFTA) he's actually accumulated the most plaudits so far. There Will Be Blood has nabbed five wins for Robert Elswit, including some Guild love. And Diving Bell is no slouch with three wins.