Tall Writer's Oscar Picks and Analysis
Published February 17, 2008
Bardem has dominated the other award show and seems a likely winner year for his unique antagonist performance. First time nominee/veteran actor Holbrook could take the prize here while giving some much needed recognition to Into The Wild. Affleck also has an outside chance.
Best Supporting Actress
- Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
- Ruby Dee - American Gangster
- Saoirse Ronan - Atonement
- Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
- Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton
A Blanchett win, for her Bob Dylan portrayal, would make cross gender performance history. Support for her Elizabeth lead actress performance could shift here. Ryan would be the next competitor (she’s the only nominee for the high quality Gone Baby Gone), then Swinton or Dee, who both won other awards. Jennifer Garner (Juno) deserved Ronan’s spot.
Best Animated Film
- Ratatouille
- Persepolis
- Surf’s Up
Disney/Pixar made one of the best films this year (animated or live action) with the reviving Ratatouille. Sony will try to steal it away with their two nominations.
Best Original Screenplay
- Diablo Cody - Juno
- Nancy Oliver – Lars and the Real Girl
- Tony Gilroy – Michael Clayton
- Brad Bird - Ratatouille
- Tamara Jenkins – The Savages
Diablo Cody will likely win, but it’s close with the talented Gilroy for the only other best picture nominee in this category, Michael Clayton, which could possibly cancel them both out for a Bird win. Would’ve been great to see the late Adrienne Shelly get a nomination for Waitress.
Best Adapted Screenplay
- Christopher Hampton – Atonement
- Sarah Polley – Away From Her
- Ronald Harwood - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
- Joel Coen & Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
- Paul Thomas Anderson – There Will Be Blood
Another tight race. The Coen brothers already won a screenplay Oscar for Fargo, so Anderson should get it here, especially because he likely won’t win for Best Director. Polley gets her first nomination.
More categories of interest include:
Best Cinematography
- Roger Deakins – The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
- Seamus McGarvey - Atonement
- Janusz Kaminski – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
- Roger Deakins - No Country for Old Men
- Robert Elswit – There Will Be Blood
A serious lack of American-born winners hurts a deserving Elswit, who ironically won the American Society of Cinematographers award. Deakins doubles his chances, plus hasn’t won yet after five nominations.
Best Documentary
- No End in Sight
- Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience
- Sicko
- Taxi to the Dark Side
- War/Dance
- Tall Writer's Oscar Picks and Analysis
- Published: February 17, 2008
- Type: Opinion
- Section: Video
- Filed Under: Video: Film and TV Business, Video: Awards Shows
- Writer: Tall Writer
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Comments on this articleComments
You seem to hedge your picks by naming more than one potential winner.
Why on earth would Knocked Up get an Oscar nomination? It's a mediocre comedy.
"the rest were independents." Not really.
Juno = Fox Searchlight Pictures, a division of Fox
NCfOM & TWBB = Paramount Vantage, a division of Fox, & Miramax a division of Disney
"Would've been great to see the late Adrienne Shelly get a nomination for Waitress."
Why? Its cliched characters were basically a rehash of an "Alice" episode and the story was terrible.
I don't see any reason their winning for Fargo would disqualify the Coens from Best Adapted Screenplay. Plus they already won the WGA award.
Good luck with your picks.
Good picks (um, he only did one each and they're in bold) and analysis. It's good to see the little studios (even if they are divisions, they started independently - I guess people's definitions differ) get most of the nominations. Would be interested to see your thoughts in other categories, but that would make it extra long.
Yeah, but he hedged, like with Director where he lists two others who have chances. They all have chances.
"even if they are divisions, they started independently"
Except for Miramax, that's not right because the other two divisions were started by the studios.
Talking about who has a chance to win and hedging ones bets are two different things, though. I'm not really sure what your point is, as the author only selected ONE film/director/etc. for his own personal selection. It kind of seems like argument for argument's sake, now.
Hello all,
Appreciate the comments/feedback/support. Let's keep the discussion lively. It's a celebration of film with excitement and analysis of what could happen Sunday night.
I value everyone's opinions. Let's keep the semantics to a minimum. Thanks.
Add your comment, speak your mind
(Or ping: http://blogcritics.org/mt/tb/73951)
Best adapted-TWBB? Really? Over NCFOM? How often do people win more than one Oscar for the same category in their careers? I know it's not too common...but does TWBB have enough to really beat No country?