Florida and the Giuliani Factor
Published January 29, 2008
I'm sitting here eating spaghetti in honor of Rudy Giuliani and watching the first returns come in from Florida. Right now McCain is leading by a couple of points, which is about where the polls put him, with Mitt Romney breathing down his neck. Giuliani trails behind and isn't going to even catch up to Romney.
There's not much of a trick to calling this election when we'll have results in a couple of hours. McCain is going to win by more than we expect with a big surge at the last minute. Pensacola will be counted late and will go heavily for McCain. Absentee ballots are counted last and will go heavily for McCain (from the military) and Giuliani (those who voted while he was still a contender). McCain needs a solid victory here, and it's going to defy predictions and not be all that close. He may even win by close to a 10 point margin.
Of course, that's not counting the Giuliani factor. Giuliani's campaign is dead like the meatballs in my spaghetti. Giuliani hates Romney and has a lot in common with McCain. His campaign is disintigrating and leaks are all over the place that he's going to endorse McCain at the most strategic possible moment next week to put the final nail in Romney's coffin. He'll likely give a near endorsement in his speech tonight. Giuliani is going to end up with votes in the mid teens, and to be realistic, those might as well be McCain votes. With the endorsement those New York expatriots in Florida will go for McCain overwhelmingly.
So what we're likely looking at is McCain beating Romney about 8 or 9% and when you throw in the Giuliani votes McCain is effectively well over 50%.
That's a resounding victory in a major state and in some circumstances it might be the end of the primary campaign. The big catch is that everyone except for Romney and Ron Paul is out of money. McCain's campaign bus is running on fumes and Huckabee and Rudy are just as broke. Paul has pointlessly preserved his resources presumably to maximize his delegates so he can influence the platform and Romney who has outspent everyone else already, still has his enormous personal fortune to draw on. A media blitz in the next week at a cost of $30 million or more, might win Romney enough delegates to keep him in the running, so it's too early to count him out.
Dave Nalle has been a magazine editor, freelance writer, capitol hill staffer, game designer and taught college history for many years. He is an activist for libertarianism within the Republican party. He now designs fonts for a living and lives with his family just outside Austin. You can find his writings on politics and culture at Republic of Dave, on conspiracy theories at IdiotWars and on design and fonts at The Scriptorium.
- Florida and the Giuliani Factor
- Published: January 29, 2008
- Type: Opinion
- Section: Politics
- Part of a feature: On The Road To 2008
- Writer: Dave Nalle
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Latest reports from Florida, with 51% of precincts in, but few to none from all-important Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties, which comprise South Florida, McCain's lead has widened slightly to 35% vs Romney's 31%.
AP and FoxNews just called the Florida Republican primary for McCain at 9:10PM.
Those two soft popping sounds were Arch's and JOM's heads exploding.
This may be the best campaign run by the guy at 3%. He skipped florida and went to other states with more delegates. As Gman and Huckster will most likely be done after Feb 5th, the only ones with cash are Romney and Paul. Everyone may be surprised come the convention who has the real power.
Good one, Dr. D.
McCain is currently at 38% according to the AP.
I wonder if the old folks vote for McCain because he's one of them or Romney because he's the good looking son they wish they had?
Dave
Yes, your bet on Florida was a big mistake but believe you still learn from your mistake and lead again in the race.
An endorsement to McKain would be catastrophic at least let us see a Romney-Giuliani term because McKain simply can't win.
In Florida, most of the old folks vote Democratic (except in Naples, of course!).
Why would Giuliani want to be VP under Romney when McCain is going to be the nominee?
dave
Heh.
It's interesting that McCain is somewhat suddenly making a comeback. Last I heard his campaign was all but dead, and yet he's taking the most recent primaries. And Giuliani shot himself in the foot. We all know that. Funny how politics work.
Not so funny though how Clinton has managed to go back on her word. I wonder why it is she wanted that victory? Good media coverage, saying "Look how well I would've beat Obama"? Or maybe it'll backfire and the media will mention the fact that she abandoned her agreement.
I see him finishing out the night with 9-11 percent of the vote.
Suss, if you're talking about Rudy, Fox is already showing him with 15% with 81% in.
OH.
Hillary did not campaign in Florida. Some of Clinton's people made phone calls urging people to vote, but no actual campaigning took place. She only made her appearance after the polls were closed. And, hey, a win is a win.
Dave, just curious. You obviously had a preference for Giuliani, but he wasn't someone you were particularly excited about. Who would you be excited about? If you could hand pick a candidate, who would it be?
B-tone
"Hillary did not campaign in Florida."
Not true, B-tone.
She's been here for three days, holding fundraisers and her campaign staff made sure she was talked about on the evening newscasts on all local channels the whole time.
She did break her promise; Barack did not
B-tone,
Sorry, she was here only two days:
Clinton in Florida Sunday, according to the Miami Herald.
Did anyone notice Mitt tearing up in his concession speech. How dare he lower the level of the campaign with an emotional outburst! What a scumbag.
B-tone
Dave, just curious. You obviously had a preference for Giuliani, but he wasn't someone you were particularly excited about. Who would you be excited about? If you could hand pick a candidate, who would it be?
Not sure I had a preference for Giuliani. Of the original slate of Republicans I preferred Thompson probably followed by Ron Paul and then a sort of toss-up between McCain and Giuliani.
If I had my absolute choice of people who could at least consider running my preferences would be Gov. Mark Sanford of SC or Sen. John Sununu of NH or as a long shot Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska.
Of course, I'd like to make Bob Dole immortal and vote for him a few more times.
Dave
Clav,
I submitted my mea maxima culpa on Dave's last post regarding Hillary's presence in FL. But, I also point out that she didn't techncically campaign in the state. She attended private fund raisers. I know it's a fine line at best, but as we've acknowledged here and elsewhere, the Clintons are nothing if not opportunistic. Hilary's back is against the wall. They opted to pull out a few stops in an attempt to stem the hemorrhaging of her campaign. Can't say as I like it, but they chose not to consult me.
It should be said, though, that the party went a bit too far in its punishment of both Michigan and Florida. The punishment meted out did in effect disenfranchise the Democratic voters of both states. The Republicans, being, I suppose, a bit more pragmatic, imposed far less drastic penalties.
The states that attempted to move their primaries to or near the head of the line did so in the hope of cashing in on the media feeding frenzy that would bring the states both publicity and money. Can't blame them for trying, I guess.
B-tone
Sitting here in the second most populous state in the union with our primary way the hell back in March, I sympathize with the states that tried to move up, but I also see the problem that represents, because if they can do it why can't every state do it? And the end result would be all the primaries on the same day, which would sort of defeat the purpose.
dave
the end result would be all the primaries on the same day, which would sort of defeat the purpose.
Errrr... why?
Well, the whole idea of the primaries is to gradually build up momentum towards the general election and to sort out the candidates and give them a chance to present themselves to the public. If it was all focused on one day there wouldn't be anywhere near the opportunities to make speeches and appearances. The end result would be a lot more random and less effective.
Dave
Hmm... Sounds a bit like the way every other country on the planet does it, Dave.
Like in Britain: all the gasbagging and carping over and done with in a few frenzied weeks of campaigning, and then we can all get on with whatever we were doing.
Works for me!
Yes ... why does Dave think this is unique and very special, when it just sounds to me like any other election campaign anywhere else?
That is, as Doc rightly points out, weeks and weeks of hot air and bullsh.t, and the rest of us getting bored to death by droning politicians before we actually get to silence the noise for a while by putting pen to paper?
There's just a lot more windbags running around in the American electoral process, which is probably the REAL reason they have primaries.
They need to cull a few of 'em.
While I am finding this particular campaign extremely interesting, I must confess I don't see the logic of the system, perhaps owing to there being none.
Why not have a national primary? The widely varied and often arcane processes that the different states employ coupled with the five or six months that the primaries/caucuses are spread through make the whole thing a jumbled, almost indecipherable mess.
If a single primary election fails to provide a clear winner, provisions could be in place for a runoff election a couple of weeks or so later. Or, the results could be ridden into the national conventions and the party leaders and delegates could then hash it all out. Of course, a properly run national primary election system could obviate the need for conventions altogether. While they sometimes make for good theatre, party conventions are, in large part, creeking dinosaurs which should be allowed to fossilize to put the rest of us out of their misery. Just think. A national primary and the elimination of conventions could ease global warming owing to the massive reduction of hot air.
B-tone
Well, I've got the winning ticket for 2008, and the perfect slogan -
McCain/Paul 2008
"Two Crazy Old Bastards"
Can't miss.
Dave
The current system skews everything, including voter prejudice and the candidates' perceptions of their own chances.
It caused Biden and Dodd to drop out of the race after one caucus because of a bad result. Who knows if one or both of them would have got some better results later and picked up momentum?
It caused everyone to forget Giuliani was even running because he chose not to start campaigning early. Now he's dropping out without even waiting to see what would have happened on Super Tuesday.
Not to mention that all the primary results from here on in are going to be a bit skewed anyway because he (and Edwards, on the Democratic side) are still on the ballot.
Bonkers, the lot of you.
Mmmm, my adverts under this post include an invitation to start spread betting (no way! I'm a loser at the bookies! £2 on Wales at 8/1 Doctor D, heart not head!).
Rudi was discussed on Beeb radio yesterday where they seemed to believe the defining black mark against him was THAT HE LOOKS WEIRD! Mmmm. I think the whole thing's mad (but as you know I don't live there so I could go to sleep till November - still, I do enjoy watching your discussions on it). On that subject, Dave you should approach bbc radio five live's Simon Mayo programme - they're going quite big on their coverage and seem very open to discussing things like "What effect are blogs/discussion sites having on the whole shebang"... Not much I'd guess, otherwise Ron Paul would be bigger I spose as he seems the net candidate... But I honestly reckon you might get on as a pundit and thus have the chance to speak to an entire nation enslaved in statist liberalism and suffering from a lack of a proper arsenal (apart from the one that stuffed to 'Pies TWICE in a week doc, I am sorry).
"Bonkers, the lot of you."
This from a man whose country keeps the richest woman in the land (and her entire family) on lavish, regal welfare; the lot of them supported on the backs of the taxpayers without ever having to work a lick all their lives.
And the taxpayers love it!
Oh yeah. We're bonkers, mate. :>)
Ne'er mind - you've now got the dubious pleasure of employing Britain's nastiest small fellah, that's right, Dennis "Wisey" Wise has now left Leeds to become some sort of Executive Director at Newcastle, although he is based in Ludnud... All very strange. (3-0 at the Emirates by the way)
I haven't seen Rudi - does he really look odd? They said he has enourmous staring eyes and eyebrows that look like they're raised, until suddenly, they grow ever larger and the eyebrows rise ever higher. I'm convinced Neil Kinnock - a bald, ginger Welshman was never going to win because he was a...
I don't love it Clav, but the ever winning argument is that Mrs Windsor and her dysfunctional family lure crazed Americans to Ludnud, where blinded by the gaudy regality of it all they drop dollars all over our shitty cobbles. Bring forth the guillotine!
It's a small price to pay. We get to keep our monarch under control (notoriously unreliable things, monarchs) while preserving the continuity of our history and national identity. (History, you know - as in things that happened a long time ago - something you Seppos wouldn't know about... ;-) )
Actually, the Queen does work extremely hard. in her lifetime she's probably done more than anyone else to promote the welfare of her people and Britain's connections overseas.
Also actually, the entire Royal Family is not taxpayer-supported. Only Her Maj and the Dook get paid from the Civil List, and the others are only subsidized for expenses incurred in the course of their official duties. The rest of their money comes from private sources (for example, Prince Charles lives off the income from the estates he holds as Duke of Cornwall).
That's all quite recent isn't it though Doc? After the whole Diana thing revealed a few of the nastier sides of the Windsors and people did start to turn against them. And, relatively harmless bunch of goons with very little real power Vs George W Bush... Mmmm.
Restack the guillotine in the guillotine shed!
I haven't seen Rudi - does he really look odd? They said he has enourmous staring eyes and eyebrows that look like they're raised, until suddenly, they grow ever larger and the eyebrows rise ever higher.
Yeah, and they say don't get too close to him, because he'll suddenly shoot out his long sticky tongue and snare you with it, whereupon he will swallow you whole.
Oh, and John McCain is the Antichrist, at least according to some of the more vocal and picturesque commenters here.
Yeah, sure Doc.
Whatever you say...
Cracking oven chips Mr McCain makes, I won't have a word said agin him.
Prince Charles ain't such a bad old stick - a bit of a weirdo, but I like the campaigning he's done on the environment, sustainable agriculture etc. Look at his dad though, poor sensitive li'l bugger didn't stand a chance.
In principal you are entirely right Clavos, in practice I'm not so sure.
Restack the guillotine in the guillotine shed!
No, that was France, Col.
Drastic situations calling for drastic measures and all that. The French monarchy... now that really was nasty. Blame Louis the Sun King and his funny ideas about absolute power. Can't really blame le peuple for wanting to give 'em all the chop.
Colin,
Here are some pics of Rudy for your enlightenment. They're courtesy of the Beeb, even.
BTW did you know he's an honorary KBE? I didn't...
Actually, unless things have changed recently, Her Majesty is NOT the richest person in merry old England. That mantle falls to Ms. Rowling of Harry Potter fame.
B-tone
I knew that, and it's quite an honour. Those things aren't handed out like confetti, especially to you rebels. ;-)
I believe "Stormin'" Norman Schwarzkopf has one, and maybe also Colin Powell (?).
Yoiks Doc! A politician who really shouldn't smile - I'd guess he got his gong after 9/11. Ahh, lovely Joanna, she's from my neck of the woods you know - grew up in Tutshill in the strangely strange Forest of Dean. The Guillotine was also used in Halifax, I think before the Fr Rev (and what bliss to be young!) - hence the phrase, God save me from Hull, Hell and Halifax.
One of my friends from my days in the airline game had one. For obvious reasons, I won't name him here.
The knighthood, Colin.
He had the power as well, but he got that from the BOD of the airline he ran.
He might well have a guillotine too, Colin. He does smoke cigars
"Other American honorary KBE recipients include Bill Gates, George Bush, Ronald Reagan, and Steven Spielberg. The award recognizes those who have made an important contribution to relations between their country and Britain."
Crikey! That's more than I would have thought... That comes from a piece celebrating an award to another fellah from Seattle - I'd give one to the Ramones on that basis, their visit to the UK was (one of) the spark(s) that ignited Punk.
"I'd give one to the Ramones on that basis, their visit to the UK was (one of) the spark(s) that ignited Punk."
The Generation Gap raises its ugly head; for that, I'd give the Ramones the guillotine...:>)
I must leave to the real world for a while (Bah! - stupid real world)... I hope you all keep very well and happy and such like. No doubt chat to some of you again soon.
One of my friends from my days in the airline game had one. For obvious reasons, I won't name him here.
Clav, if it was an honorary knighthood he would be easy enough to identify. There can't be many of those floating around in the airline game. If it was a real one - now that's a different kettle of fish. However, bearing in mind your Florida background, I'll hazard a guess... it wasn't dear old Freddie Laker, was it?
No, Doc, though that's a good guess. I've met Freddie, but he's not a friend, just a business acquaintance, and he's a Brit.
My friend is an American, a much rarer kind of KBE; and yes, it is honorary (I think - actually I don't know. Can a furriner receive a real one?)
Clavvy, Big Liz isn't the wealthiest woman in the country and the so called Royal Family does actually do a lot of work for the country.
Yes, unless he has dual nationality it would be honorary. He can use the KBE after his name but can't style himself Sir Whoever.
Interestingly, if you were a British national who naturalized in another country prior to 1949 you would only qualify for an honorary knighthood, because you automatically forfeited your British citizenship. Cecil Green, the co-founder of Texas Instruments, is probably the best-known example.
Bob Geldof, the driving force behind Band Aid and Live Aid, is often referred to as 'Sir Bob', but this is technically incorrect as he is an Irish, not a British, citizen.
Sadly Sir Freddie Laker, the pioneer of budget air travel, died a couple of years ago. After Laker Airways went bust, he opened an office just down the road from where I used to live in South London, hoping to start another no-frills airline. But the government wouldn't give him an operating license and the venture never came to anything.
Why did Hillary want the win in Florida? It's simple. She gets the opportunity to portray herself as a civil rights hero. At the convention, if she needs the extra delegates, she'll be saying:
"They're telling you that your votes don't count. Well, we've heard that kind of talk before. But I'm not going to let the voices of Jim Crow politics control our party."
Note that I put that in quotes. It's as sure as I wrote it that she'll be painting Barack Obama as a klansman if that's what she needs to win the nomination.
"It's as sure as I wrote it that she'll be painting Barack Obama as a klansman if that's what she needs to win the nomination."
And the worst part is she and Willie could pull it off, making Barack the world's only Black Klansman...
Clavos, I'm reading "Here, There, and Everywhere" by Jay Nordlinger (of National Review and The New Criterion). The book is a collection of his articles throughout the Clinton and Bush years. It's a great read.
Anyway, one of the pieces is a trip down memory lane, about how Bill Clinton tried to make the Lewinsky scandal into a black-white thing. (Even as I write that, I can't wrap my mind around it.) The way he used Jesse Jackson, Betty Currie, and Vernon Jordan as his defense; Tavis Smiley declaring Bill an "honorary brother"; his mid-scandal trip to South Africa to meet with Nelson Mandela; et cetera. It's really an acid trip down memory lane, because it's so weird to think about.
I know that Hillary Clinton will try to use her blackness against Obama.
My head didn't explode dreadful. Came close but it didn't happen.
We're not the only two Republicans who are sickened by the mere sight of John Mccain.
Millions of other Reopublicans are none too happy to watch our party hijacked by Mcamnesty and the independents who support him. I have no doubt Ronald Reagan is rolling over in his grave right now.
The sheer idiocy of too many of my fellow Americans never ceases to amaze me. They're choosing an angry old man who understands absolutely nothing but war with a chip on his shooulder, a foul temper, a petty, spiteful vindictive nature and something to prove to the world.
But hey when the country is at war with Iran five years from now with mad dog mccain at the helm don't blame me dreadful. I voted for Romney.
If you think W. was bad..........
In the time less words of BTO
"baby you aint seen nothing yet."
Or it could be Hillary.
Either way America's darkest days are on the horizon.
We're not the only two Republicans who are sickened by the mere sight of John Mccain.
Exit polling in Florida suggests that those who are in Arch's camp are much, much fewer than has generally been believed. Apparently only 20% of the Republican voters described themselves as "very conservative", while almost 50% described themselves as "moderate" or "liberal".
I think that the religious right's pigeons have come home to roost and they're finding out that they may have joined the GOP but they ARE NOT the GOP.
Dave
Are you implying that the only people in the GOP opposed to John Mccain are the religious right Nalle?
It's just that those furthest right often seem to have the loudest voices, Doc.
But what is Limbaugh, for example, going to do after Labor Day if McCain is indeed the nominee? Even the dittoheads won't want to lose the White House.
"It's just that those furthest right often seem to have the loudest voices, Doc."
Never heard Al Franken? Michael Moore? Randi Rhodes? Ward Churchill?
Loudness is in the ear of the beholder, handy.
Yours are just as loud as ours; the only difference is you like what yours say.
Al Franken loud, Clav? He's so laid back you could eat lunch off him. And Ward Churchill? C'm on. No-one would have heard of him if Fox News hadn't decided to make him their Eevul Librul of the Week.
I'll give you Randi Rhodes, though. Especially when she's talking about Ralph Nader, whom she for some reason seems to think is evil incarnate.
I did mean loud in the sense of the exposure and therefore attention they get, not literally.
They are all sleazes, left and right. They do well because the vast majority of the people are entertained by them.
The Romans had their bread and circuses to keep the peasants off topic; we have our...what the hell does one even call them?
It's all about distracting the peasants.
Add your comment, speak your mind
(Or ping: http://blogcritics.org/mt/tb/73374)
With 44% of precincts reporting at 8:45 PM, McCain leads Romney 35% to 32%.
BTW Dave, in Florida, absentee ballots include a fairly high proportion of elderly voters too infirm to physically make it to the polls. I don't know exact numbers, but I've heard they outnumber the military in absentee ballots.
The principal factor in the probable record voter turnout is thought to be popular Governor Charlie Crist's personal advocacy and advertising for, a constitutional amendment aimed at providing tax relief for property owners.
The amendment will require a 60% majority to pass, and of course is non partisan in that it benefits everyone who owns property.
In recent weeks, Crist spearheaded a saturation TV campaign to get it passed.