The first part of this halfway made sense. Not even any foreshadowing of the fact that you'd go completely insane in the second part. Bravo!

Somehow this post makes me think that you are sitting in your concrete bunker with your beard grown down to your toe and matted in old food, rolling your eyes, rocking back and forth and foaming at the mouth with a torah in one hand and a gun in the other.

Pure rat-brained craziness.

Dave

Henry Niman has predicted the pandemic has started so many times, over so many years, that by now there have been at least 3 flu pandemics since 2005(unnoticed by the world) that have come and gone.

If you read him for a week or two, you think he is writing about something "new."

If you check him out every three months or so, you see that whatever is happening in any part of the world, he thinks it means that a pandemic has started, and that it is being covered up.

Now you tell me: Would YOUR community be able to hide a human-to-human transmitted disease that killed more than 2.5% of those who caught it? (2.5% case fatality rate is what the Spanish Flu of 1918 supposedly had, and no one missed it when it came to town.) H5N1 avian influenza as it currently exists -- passing from birds to the occasional human -- has a far higher case fatality rate at present.

Read Henry for a few more months, and then revisit your post from today. You will see he is a broken one-tune record. All evidence means the pandemic has started. All evidence means the government is hiding this. Year after year.

Dave,

Somehow this post makes me think that you are sitting in your concrete bunker with your beard grown down to your toe and matted in old food, rolling your eyes, rocking back and forth and foaming at the mouth with a Torah in one hand and a gun in the other.

How flattering!!

The photo I have saved for insertion will disappoint you, then, Dave. No Torah, no beard, no foam. No flies droning around the beard, either. No sign that the world is coming to an end. They're tacky.

But it's better'n a skeleton chomping on a ceegar!

I know the idea of a plague being more than just chance and circumstance goes a against the well reasoned mind that works from obvious cause alone. Having looked at the world most of my life that way, I know better than you do. But the world does not work that way. It is not that comfortable or safe that mere reason and logic will get you by with a smile and a wave (and a PHD). You'll discover to your horror; there is a G-d, and He does Run the Universe.

I've been reading Dr. Niman for over three years, Carol. I have not read the same things you have, or have a better sense for what the man is writing than you do.

He's warned of changes (recombinations) and been dismissed. Those changes have occurred. He's warned that the bird flu could be transmitted from human to human and been dismissed. it now does transmit from human to human. He's slowly pushed the envelope of data while a world tries to cover up data. And while the bird flu has killed only hundreds of humans,so far, it has been responsible for the death of millions of birds over the same period of time. And funny, he sticks with the data while the WHO tries hard to spin the data.

That's the difference between a researcher on the one hand, and a bunch of over-funded, over-agendaed fools wallowing in their own flatulence on the other.

Interesting how I saw this comment in my in-box in e-mail, and not here:

From Bing (screen name: Arch Conservative)

Is it coincidence that the threatening gestures of the Iranian gunboats has conincided with the rise in popularity of Barack Obama as a presidential candidate?

I think not.

If we elect an inexperienced empty suit liberal as president we will eventually reap what we have sown in American blood at the hands of islamic terrorists. You can call it hyperbole instead of what it actually is, the truth, if you would like people.

Hmmm...

Two questions?

What rule did Bing break that this comment was erased from my article?

Why, if he broke no rule, was the comment erased? Could it be that the point of view this article espouses is not favored by whatever "powers that be" here at BC?

Squelch the comments - squelch the article?

Just curious....

Ruvy, Arch's comment wasn't deleted. It can be found on this thread.

Only he would be able to tell how how it got into your inbox. Perhaps he particularly wanted your unique input.

It's simple, Archie posted the same comment twice! I accidentally deleted the dupe without noticing it was on different articles.

Like most things in life, it was a cock-up, not a conspiracy...

Well, Chris, I suppose a cock-up is better than a conspiracy (I'm never sure of the order of those poker hands), but one ought to ask the cock involved. It's only good manners....

Jusrt checked Dr. Niman's Recombinomics Website, and found that the Egyptian national media is massaging the count of patients in hospital from the bird flu.

The above translations describe a continuous rise in hospitalized suspect H5N1 cases in Egypt (see detail in satellite map). The first estimate is the official composite number of 15 patients in 5 governorates, but the descriptions in local media indicate the number is significantly higher. One list details eight new patients admitted to one hospital in Qena, while another report breaks down the admission of over twenty patients into three or more hospitals in Gharbiya. Another paper details four new patients admitted into Ash Sharqiyah, which is not one of the five governorates listed. Thus, the number admitted yesterday was 2-3 times the 15 listed in the official composite.

You asked, the cock answered and all is as it should be!

Dave, your comment #1 knocked me out. Hilarious!

Ruvy, I'm pretty sure that the bird flu doesn't hit people with weakened immune systems, so much as strong immune systems. This makes me suspicious of your bird flu comments in general.

But it's better'n a skeleton chomping on a ceegar!

Don't you find it reassuring that the undead can enjoy a good cigar?

But the world does not work that way. It is not that comfortable or safe that mere reason and logic will get you by with a smile and a wave (and a PHD). You'll discover to your horror; there is a G-d, and He does Run the Universe.

Show me the hard evidence or send your big juju to visit me, because given the absence of empirical evidence I'm going with observable reality.

Dave

Ruve, you could have saved yourself all the trouble and just moved to the hills of Vermont, where you could have indulged the same beliefs but with a slightly different bent. In that case, it would have involved camouflage pants, assault rifles and black helicopers - but the beard? Stays mate. Not that far from Minneapolis, either ...

Baronius,

When the bird flu comes to a neighborhood near you, you can post your own observations personally - if you are able.

Dave,

The Truth is going to kick in your front door and kick your butt good and hard - if you survive to see that happen. You'll have so damned much empirical evidence and observable reality, you may not stay sane enough to deal with it.

Stan,

I could have stayed in the United States and lived a lie - or come here, and approach the Truth. I prefer Truth over lies and coffee over alcohol - for the same reasons. Coffee will make me jumpy, but alcohol will just straight out lie to me.
Have another beer, mate.

Ruvy, I can see why Dave would be skeptical. As far as I can tell, you've been making messianic Doomsday predictions - some of them extremely short-term - for as long as you've been a Blogcritic, and none of them have come to pass yet.

And your eagerness to believe in conspiracies hasn't gone unnoticed, either. Case in point: just yesterday with Arch's 'missing' comment and your immediate assumption that the site owners were trying to suppress your article, when actually the comment was on a different thread.

Your credibility is more than a little frayed.

DD,

I have made predictions - and most of the predictions I've made have come true.

What has you confused is that I've lain out scenarios of what might come true - and I've not always been right. One of those persistent scenarios is that Shim'on Peres would seek power as state president that the Basic law here does not allow for. That has not exactly come true. What has come true is that as state president, Shim'on Peres has exercised extraordinary power in the field of foreign relations. I'm making the reasonable prediction that as the commitments Ehud Olmert makes prove too difficult for him to keep to, Olmert will be removed, and Peres, from his roost as state president, will see his power grow at the hands of foreigners like the European Union.

The other scenario I have consistently stuck to is that foreign troops will come to overtake this country. I point out to you that such an event need not look like a hostile occupation - it can appear as the friendly invite by the native (puppet) government for NATO troops to come and assist in maintaining order in a difficult period of time. I stand by this, and now add a time-frame for all of this to occur - within the next sixteen months. This is not an absolute number, of course: I'm not a prophet. But it is a reasonable number.

The final thing that has you frazzled is that these scenarios are drawn up in the frame of Biblical prophecy - not the Christian book, which is not worth the paper it is printed on, but the Hebrew Bible, within the traditions of the sages of my people. In your ignorance of that Bible, and of the writings of the sages of my people in the Talmud, and the Holy Zohar, and of the prophecies that have been made since the era of Prophecy was officially "closed" by the rabbis, you write, "you've been making messianic Doomsday predictions - some of them extremely short-term - for as long as you've been a Blogcritic, and none of them have come to pass yet."

Finally, if you'll note, few of my articles have been pushed in "Spread the Word" nor have they been pushed at the BC yahoosite. So, it is reasonable for me to assume that these articles are not looked upon with favor.

I generally do not have time for ego fights, but if something smells fishy to me I do ask questions. And that is what I did.

Leaving aside the 'my Bible can beat up your Bible' playground nonsense, you'll note that I was very careful to avoid the use of the word prophecy. I strongly agree with you that you are not a prophet. And prophecy, of the biblical variety, is rather out of the scope of a political discussion.

I will grant that you are an astute observer of Middle Eastern politics, even if your rather extreme personal politics severely narrows your interpretation of events. Some of your forecasts have been accurate, as you say - even the one about Sharon leaving office, although there was no way you could have foreseen the manner of his leaving. Some, such as the one about Bush being assassinated during his visit to Israel - well, you hedged like a champ there but we'll know in the next couple of days whether you were right. Some, such as your constant insistence that Olmert is about to be ousted... I'm still waiting for that one! Obviously, though, if you predict it often enough and persistently enough, eventually it will happen!

Where you reach escape velocity from reality is with your warnings of imminent global catastrophe ('messianic doomsday predictions' as I hyperbolically put it) - be it by way of bird 'flu, war with Iran, subjugation by the Klingons Wahhabis or a visitation from Above. Say what you like, from where I'm sitting none of these scenarios even looks like coming true.

Your fascinating piece of information about the rabbis having declared the Age of Prophecy over is something I didn't know, but it does strike me as significant. Perhaps they did so because the prophecies were obviously failing?

DD,

Let's clarify this for you, so you clearly understand the difference between what is and what isn't prophecy. It is evident that you don't. Additionally, what you do not comprehend at all is that prophecy has a proper role to play in politics, as prophets talk about events in politics in the future tense, whether in the near or far future.

What is prophecy in what I'm writing? I'm reiterating what our ancient scholars and sages said about a plague striking when there will be a huge battle here. This is prophecy.{Isaiah 66:18] What I've done is to choose one particular disease out of the lot because it is the kind of disease that can kill an entire army or country in three days - this is the bird flu. So, I'm taking an educated guess as to what will happen when this plague strikes.

If your read portions of Deuteronomy and Leviticus, called "The Admonitions" you realize, with some study, that these Admonitions are warnings of what will occur if the Children of Israel do not follow the Law - and that the Admonitions have occurred. That is what got me believing in the Bible in the first place - I, an agnostic, could see with my own eyes, without some preacher or rabbi hustling the shit down my throat, PROPHECY TURNING INTO HISTORY!! It blew me away!

Prophecy is real! That is why it has a proper role in political discussions, whether you like it or not.

Now what is not prophecy? What is not prophecy is

1.....that Olmert will cease to be prime minister soon (or have what little power he has now reduced) and that Peres' power will increase at the hands of the EU.

2.....that the Arabs (and Iranians) will attack us in a massive missile attack. I'm guessing this as a scenario based on prophecy that the "king of the south" (a coalition of Arabs led by Iran, according to our sages) will push at the the "king of the north" which according to our sages is Europe or Christendom [Daniel 12].
I'm not the only one with this guess either.

3.....that at some point in the near future, this country will be occupied by foreign (as in NATO or EU forces) to insure that the general agenda of surrender of the EU and US administrations is adhered to by the Judenrat and Kapos in power. It is a logical guess that this occupation will occur after a missile attack, as the Israeli state infrastructure will be gone.

But all of these are structured within general prophecy in either the Torah or interpretations thereof in the Talmud or Zohar.

This has been the general outline of what I've been writing since the expulsion of Jews from Gush Qatif, when I realized at long last in my gut and in my heart the moral bankruptcy of the Zionist movement and the state that is its apotheosis, the State of Israel.

I will not be writing too much in the future, unless I indeed see Redemption occurring in real time. But I have the nasty feeling that if I merit seeing Redemption, I will not be in any shape to write about it.

Ah yes....

As for Bush being killed here? This is a guess which does not rise to the level of a prediction. If you read what I wrote, you'll realize that I framed it as one of several possible outcomes of his trip here based on information as to who was guarding him.

As to Bush dying here, this is also a guess, one based on the calculations of a number of m'kubalim that "Gog" is indeed George Bush. If this is actually so, then somehow or other, he will die on the mountains of this country, and wind up as high protein feed for the vultures and hawks of this lovely land. George Bush is planning another trip here in the spring, so he need not be knocked off now. Again, this is IF he is indeed the character identified in the Tana"kh as "Gog". The m'kubalim can be wrong. They are only people, too.

In any event, if he returns home alive, he will return home to a falling dollar and a collapsing economy, and blaspheming the G-d he says he believes in, which is what he has done here, will only hasten the demise of the United States and its economy.

Let's clarify this for you, so you clearly understand the difference between what is and what isn't prophecy. It is evident that you don't.

I'll say it again: "you'll note that I was very careful to avoid the use of the word prophecy."

I used "prediction".

I, an agnostic, could see with my own eyes, without some preacher or rabbi hustling the shit down my throat, PROPHECY TURNING INTO HISTORY!!

Prophecies generally have the distinction of being vague and as such, can be easily adapted to fit current events. It seems to me the height of hubris to claim that a particular event or sequence of events in one's own lifetime is the fulfillment of a prophecy, when dozens of past events can just as easily be matched with it.

And BTW, you forgot to close your tag again. Editor! Editor!!

DD,

Before you go further, try reading a Jewish text - the Admonitions in Leviticus and Deuteronomy - and reading the full commentary that goes with it. A very good sample would be the Artscroll Humash replete with commentary. This is what I read just under a decade ago in an attempt to have answers for my sons when they came home from Hebrew school with questions like "why didn't Pharaoh use tanks and airplanes, Daddy?".

Do this and you will see, as I did, PROPHECY TURNING INTO HISTORY!!

Looks like the editor ain't quite around right now, DD. I see comments that normally wouldn't be allowed here....

At the end of the article, I had promised another one. But since my glasses frames broke, working on articles gets hard for me, so we'll deal with the continuing changes on the ground in comments updating this article.

It has been the impression of me and those close top me that because Bush has put a timetable for a treaty on the table, his timetable will be made to work against him, and events will start to transpire with increasing speed here. Indeed, this has been happening. This appears to be old news, but it is a major change in the facts on the ground.

RUSSIA MAKES ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN

DEBKAfile Reports: Russia launches first naval power build-up in the Mediterranean in response to the US about-face on Iran December 5, 2007, 4:34 PM (GMT+02:00)

President Vladimir Putin and defense minister Anatoly Serdyukov decided to send a sortie of six Russian warships, led by the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier and the Moskva guided missile cruiser, to the Mediterranean. This will be the first prolonged stay of a Russian carrier to the eastern Mediterranean vicinity of Israel's shores and waters patrolled by the US Sixth Fleet. On its decks are 47 warplanes and 10 helicopters. The Moskva is the Russian Navy's Black Sea flagship.

According to our Moscow sources, the Kremlin is determined not to be left lagging behind the new Bush administration's steps towards an accommodation with Iran, which were signaled by the US National Intelligence Estimate absolving Tehran of running a military nuclear program from 2003.

DEBKAfile's military sources report that the Russian fleet, which has already set out for its new mission from the North and Black Seas, will have the use of naval facilities at Syria's Tartous port. Its presence for several months will be a complication for the Israel navy's operations opposite the Lebanese and Syrian coasts, especially if the Russians are joined at Tartous by Iranian submarines or warships.

The Kremlin also decided to send a sortie of ships to the northeastern Atlantic.

This is complemented by this story:

DEBKAfile reports: Moskva missile carrier takes part in big Russian navy maneuver starting in Mediterranean Tuesday

January 18, 2008, 8:42 PM (GMT+02:00)
Russian Moskva missile carrier arrives in Mediterranean

Russia has drawn eleven warships from its Black Sea and Atlantic Northwest fleets for a joint war game in the Mediterranean to underline its drive for a naval presence in all the world's seas and oceans. They will rendezvous off Malta Tuesday, Jan. 15. The flagship Moskva is on its way from Sevastopol.

DEBKAfile's military sources report: Air carrier Admiral Kutznetsov is on current missions in the Mediterranean, escorted by four ships, including the large anti-submarine Admiral Levchenko and the command and supply ship Sergei Osipov. On its decks are 47 Su-33 fighter-bombers and 10 helicopters.

Dmitry Medvedev, President Vladimir Putin's chosen successor, said Friday, Jan. 11: "Russia must restore its sea power." Speaking at the giant Russian Barents Sea base of Murmansk, he commented: "The Soviet Union's naval might commanded respect - I won't say feared, but respected."

As part of their manoeuvres, under the command of Vice Adm. Vladimir Maximov, the Moskva and other units will launch ship-to-air, marine missile interceptor and shore-to-ship missiles and carry out air force drills. During the joint fleet's 71-day stay in the Mediterranean, the Russian vessels will call in at eleven ports of 6 countries, while carrying out three tactical manoeuvres with target practices.

DEBKAfile reports that the Russian vessels will dock at the two Syrian military ports of Tartous and Latakia. Another flotilla led by the Ivan Bubnov fuel tanker will call in at Tripoli, Libya, to set up a logistical base for the vessels taking part in the exercise.

The Bubnov's commander, Capt. Igor Dygalo, said this would be the Russian Navy's first call in Libya in five years.

Medvedev's Murmansk visit and his declaration of intent to revive the Russian navy exacerbated Russian-Norwegian strains in the Barents Sea.

Norway feels threatened by what it sees as a renewed Russian demonstration of strength by the buildup of Russian warships and submarines close to its shores. In the Soviet era, Russian fishing boats on spy missions for the navy were wont to interfere with Norway's fishermen.

Moscow counters by accusing the Norwegian navy and air force of harassing Russian fishermen.

The extended Russian war games take place in one of the most crowded waters in the world, the Mediterranean, challenging its domination by the US Sixth Fleet and NATO. Israel and its navy are negatively affected. The fact that the Russian vessels will only visit Arab - not Israeli ports - bespeaks Moscow's decision to strengthen its ties with Arab states and their military options vis-à-vis Israel, a reminder of Moscow's massive support of Arab military forces in the Cold War.

The point? Another power has been drawn into the fray here and likely confrontation of forces concentrating in this region for a war - and for judgment.

GAZANS BREAK OUT OF THEIR OPEN AIR PRISON, ANNEX THE NORTHEAST SINAI TO THEIR TERRITORY

UN: Some 350,000 Gazans stream into Egypt as militants blast border wall
By Barak Ravid, Amos Harel, Avi Issacharoff, and Yuval Azoulay, Haaretz Correspondents and News Agencies

Some 350,000 Palestinians poured out of Gaza and into Egypt early Wednesday, the United Nations said, after masked gunmen blew dozens of holes in the wall delineating the border.

The Gazans rushed to purchase food, fuel, and other supplies made scarce by Israel's blockade of the Strip, after militants detonated 17 bombs in the early morning hours, destroying some two-thirds of the metal wall separating the Gaza Strip from Egypt.

Hamas did not take responsibility for knocking the border wall down, but Hamas militants quickly took control of the frontier, as Egyptian border guards took no action.

Israel said in response to the chaos that it expects Egypt to solve the crisis.

The Israeli government's attitude is that this is a problem for Egypt to solve, appearing to ignore the both the dangers and the opportunities inherent in the situation.

For this, we return to DEBKAfiles

DEBKAfile Exclusive: Mubarak pulls Eyptian border forces out of N. Sinai, Washington evacuates US MFO unit from El Arish

January 24, 2008, 10:54 PM (GMT+02:00)
Gazans take over Egyptian side of Rafah

Announcing that Egypt would not expel the hundreds of thousands of Gazan Palestinians who continue to crossed the broken border fence into N. Sinai, President Hosni Mubarak redeployed his special border force from the Gazan border to points south of El Arish, Bir Lahfan and Abu Aweigila. This step effectively handed over to the control of Hamas-led Palestinian terrorist organizations and al Qaedal a northern Sinai enclave of roughly 855 sq, km., twice the area of the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip.

Early Thursday, Jan. 24, American forces and equipment withdrew from the Multi-force Organization base at Al Gura northeast of al Arish. This force monitors Sinai's demilitarization under a key clause of the Egypt-Israel peace treaty. Washington and Cairo are discussing evacuating the entire base and its 400 multinational personnel. The Egyptian high command was informed that Hamas had begun moving some of its elite units to its new stronghold. Egyptian forces are not capable of contending with this strength or the hundreds of thousands of Gazan Palestinians on the move between Gaza and Sinai since Hamas blew up the concrete border fence Tuesday.

Israeli officials continue to treat the crisis as a problem for Egypt to address, rather than emanating from Israel's failure to pre-empt Hamas' well-laid plan with timely and appropriate military action. Senior military sources told DEBKAfile that Hamas' strategic feat is irreversible. By demolishing the 10-km concrete barrier dividing the Gaza Strip from Egyptian Sinai, Hamas has acquired a new stronghold outside Israel's military reach while their missiles and guns retain access to Israeli targets from the Gaza Strip.

They wonder why defense minister Ehud Barak has not cut short his attendance at the Economic Forum in Switzerland when the blockade he ordered on the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip - but for fuel and other necessities - had become futile.

This article details the effective annexation of the northeastern Sinai to Hamas controlled territory. Those of you with a decent knowledge of history will recall that in January 1949, YitzHak Rabin occupied el-Arish. He was forced to evacuate when Harry Truman threatened to withdraw American recognition of the State of Israel, which was not the first time the Americans had interfered in our affairs. Note the milktoast response of the Americans in the article above.

The reality being forced down everyone's throat is that Gaza and Judea and Samaria just are not big enough for a viable Arab state. The two states side-by-side solution is being shown by the actions of the Gazans to be just so much bullshit, an unworkable solution, or to put it differently, no solution at all.

The opportunity being ignored by the State of Israel (Ehud Barak is in Switzerland probably happy to escape bitchy Israeli women and happy for the opportunity to bed down a couple of complaisant Swiss Heidis, instead) is that the northeastern Sinai has been detached from Egyptian control by Gazan Arabs - and it can be placed under Israeli control - something I suspect will eventually happen, but will not be pursued by the retards on Government Hill in Jerusalem.

GAZAN ARABS NOT SATISFIED WITH THE RULE OF HAMAS OR OR THE PA

This comes to you courtesy of David Frankfurter.

Dear Friends,

With rockets falling on Israel's south daily, a debate is raging whether to cut off power supply to Gaza for a short period after every rocket. A message to the Palestinian population that their fate is inter-dependent with that of Israel. If they continue to behave as enemies, they will be treated as enemies. Ironically, as the questions of morality, Israeli and international law, and effectiveness of the measure occupy more and more of the Israeli political scene and media, S'derot suffered a two hour black-out on Sunday, when a Gazan missile hit a high voltage power line in the city.

What is really going on in Gaza? Does the local population really support the incessant rocket attacks and violence against Israel? Would they prefer peace with their neighbours, as the Ramallah based Fatah government claims in the West Bank? The Hamas' election victory was brought about by a convergence of forces, and their bloody take-over had mixed local support. An unusual insight into the situation and views of the local Gaza population is provided by an interview with Gaza journalist Taghreed El-Khodary. In a short piece, she covers a wide range of topics; corruption, internal violence, coercion, Islamisation and the violence against Israel and the inevitable Israeli attempts to stop it. The whole piece is worth reading - but the telling line is no surprise to those of us that have been following the events in Gaza over the last decade:

Shockingly, a significant number of people have told me, 'we want to go back to have Israel in direct control, like it was under occupation, before Oslo.'

David
****

As bad as Israeli control is, it is at least rational, and as little as Arabs may like us, they know that we are not out to kill Arabs as a matter of course, as Arabs are out to kill Jews as a matter of course. Those of you who hide your heads in the sand can afford to ignore that reality, but I cannot.