KC is actually superior in DVOA to the visiting Titans once the home field advantage is worked in, yet they are getting 3.5 points. Sounds like the Chiefs would be a good pick, but then you realize that the Titans are still fighting for a wild card berth, while Herm Edwards had this to say about a losing season, "Get over it. It happens. It's called life..." Inspirational. As measured by DVOA, KC's performance last week was, by far, the worst performance by a team this season. The Chiefs have packed it in. Pick: Tennessee -3.5

The Eagles are better than their record. Their performance on a play-by-play basis is significantly superior to their won-loss record. The Cowboys meanwhile, proved last week that they are quite capable of hacking up a furball. Even in Dallas, I have figure the Eagles have a good shot at staying within 10. Pick: Philadelphia +10.5

Denver is on something of an upswing whereas Houston is on something of a downswing (performance-wise if not necessarily won-loss), I gotta take the damn Broncos to win straight up. I am reduced to this level of analysis to make picks. Pathetic. Pick: Denver even.

Money Line Picks (spreadsheet)

Similarly the money line picks are scarce. Only three this week. The fewest ever. I really need a good dose of human irrationality to rear its head or I'm going to end up with nothing in the last two weeks.

Pick Recap

Point Spread
New Orleans -3.5
Cincinnati -8
Tennessee -3.5
Philadelphia +10.5
Denver even

Money Line
Jacksonville $155
Washington $170
Kansas City $170

I confess I have never experienced such a dearth of gambling opportunities before, but that's going to happen when predictability reigns. What I need is the equivalent of Mikey coming in to the Orange County Choppers shop one day and spraying the place with Uzi fire.