Last weekend was the first time in years I didn't actually see any of the games. I was on the road, without my laptop, and was only able to steal fleeting glances at a television now and then. Here's what my football viewing was like:

• I got a 10-second glance at a bar TV and saw the Lions leading the Cowboys late in the game. I immediately assumed the T.O. had a broken leg, Romo had contracted bird flu, and the Cowboys had loss no less than eight fumbles. Turns out I was wrong on all three counts. I still haven't heard a good explanation of how the Lions almost won.

• A little later I saw Anthony Smith committing suicide by taunting His Royal Bradyship. Congratulations Anthony, you've just been voted team captain of the Joe Glenn All-Stars. I have since then seen the replay of the flea-flicker-fumble about 40 times and, in a nutshell, it sums up the Pats charmed existence. Moss nearly fumbled it away, which probably worked in the Pats favor, then Brady's throw was short and just barely cleared the defender's out-stretched arm. Dubious play call + half-assed execution = touchdown. Just another example of Belichick's genius, I suppose.

• Sunday evening before I collapsed I caught about fifteen minutes of what must have been Baltimore Ravens cheerleaders playing cornerback and trying to cover Colts receivers. Even Archie Manning could have thrown for four touchdowns.

• Finally home from the airport Monday night I caught everyone in the booth laughing at the fact that they were announcing about the least appealing game in the history of MNF: the 5-7 Saints blowing out the 3-9 Falcons. NFL Network execs are redefining ROTFLOL right now.

Last Week

I got totally hosed by injuries. I would not have picked the Ravens to cover if I knew both their starting CBs would be out. And Gruden intentionally let everyone believe there was a chance Garcia would play when there wasn't. Chucky is evil. Then, of course, there was Anthony Smith's brain injury.

3-4 versus the spread bringing us to 26-16-2 for the year. So $5660 back from a layout of $4840, for a gain of $820. On the money line we put down $500 and got 420.91 back for a loss of $79.09, cutting our annual gain down to $806.99.

After a great start (and a decent Vegas week) the gains are getting chipped away and now we're just hoping to get through the season without any major disasters and come out on the plus side. Alas.

Point Spread Picks (spreadsheet)

Maybe it's because of the straightforward predictability of this season, but there are no obvious picks this week. In fact, if you were to graph the point spread vs. the home adjusted DVOA (and I have) you would find a nice smooth correlation. That is exactly what we don't want. That means public opinion agrees with DVOA across the board and denies us any clear gambling opportunities. It also means we have to fall back on guesses and gut reactions to make picks, which is precisely not our philosophy. Stupid rational observers. This is further completed by some teams simply having packed it in for the season (Fins, Niners, etc.). How do you determine who's going to mail it in?