Each week we generate a spreadsheet to guide us in making picks for both the point spread and the money line. For historical perspective, last year was the fourth year for making spread picks and the first year I finished in the loss column. It was the third year for money line picks and I have yet to have a down year with them. In fact, I've had very few down weeks with the money line.

This year I am a bit worried, mostly because, as a mentioned above, this year is playing out as expected for the most part. For these picks to succeed, we need public perception to be out of whack. If public perception is out of whack, we should get plenty of surprises. And there really haven't been any big ones this year. Results that are in line with common expectations do not bode well for this system. Scary. But gambling, like life, is a marathon, not a sprint. So here we go...

Point Spread
Here's the point spread spreadsheet.

For some strange reason, Buffalo is +3 at the Jets. Buffalo is nobody's push over. Not sure I can say that about the Jets.

We'll also take Green Bay +4 over Denver. The Pack is the objectively better team and is still getting points. Denver pulled off a potentially season changing win last week, but I'm going to wait for proof of a turnaround before I fight the numbers.

The Steelers -4 over Cincy and the Browns -3 over the Rams are both examples of significantly superior teams taking on opponents that are teetering on the brink of implosion. We'll go with both.

Now the two biggies.

Indy is spotting the Panthers less than a touchdown. Vinny Testaverde finally learned the names of all his new teammates, but by Sunday he will have forgotten them and just start calling everyone "you damn kid," then yell at Steve Smith to get off his lawn. We'll take the Peytons -6.5.

Now brace yourselves for this one: I'm going to take the Redskins +17 over the Pats. I realize approximately 75% are rolling around on the floor laughing right now. I'll give you a minute... Look, the numbers (DVOA) say that the Redskins have the number one defense in the NFL right now. And frankly, even with that knowledge, I'm hesitant. But maybe, just maybe, all the bad sportsmanship accusations over running up the score might make a dent. And maybe, just maybe, Brady only throws four touchdowns. And maybe, just maybe, they only win by a couple of touchdowns.