RJ's NFL Picks, Week One
Published September 05, 2007
Welcome back, football fans. This is now the third consecutive year in which I have committed myself to picking every single NFL regular season game. I pick the winners straight-up, without taking the spread into account (although I do offer my best guess as to what the margin of victory will be). My goal, as always, is to beat these losers.
It's always more fun when my readership gets involved, so don't be shy about offering your own predictions in the comments section. At the end of each week, I'll total up everyone's W-L record (including the pudgy, middle-aged guys at ESPN), and post the results in the comments for comparison.
[If you're looking for NFL picks that factor in the spread, you'll definitely want to check out David Mazzotta's weekly column, which should begin about midway through the season.]
With that said, it's time for my picks for the NFL's Week One. (last season's record is in parentheses)
Thursday, September 6th
New Orleans (10-6) at Indianapolis (12-4) - 8:30 PM
Last season, the New Orleans Saints won the NFC South, snagged a playoff bye week, and made it all the way to the NFC Championship Game, where they lost to the Chicago Bears. Not bad for a team that had gone 3-13 and had its stadium destroyed in a hurricane the year before. They should have a strong offense again this season (Drew Brees at QB, Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister at RB), but their defense is more questionable.
Tony Dungy and the Indianapolis Colts finally got past the New England Patriots and made it to the Super Bowl last season, where they were victorious over the Chicago Bears. The offense should be outstanding as usual (Peyton Manning at QB, Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne at WR, Joseph Addai at RB), but it is likely that their defense will be hit-or-miss.
PICK: The Colts were undefeated at home last season. I wouldn't bet against it happening again this year. COLTS BY 9.
Sunday, September 9th
Philadelphia (10-6) at Green Bay (8-8) - 1:00 PM
The Eagles won the NFC East last year by winning their last five regular season games, and made it to the Divisional Round of the playoffs before losing to the Saints. Injuries have taken their toll on QB Donovan McNabb, who is probably past his prime anyway. They'll be relying on their defense a lot this season.
The Packers very nearly made the playoffs last season, winning their last four games and only getting edged out for a Wild Card spot by the New York Giants based on the infamous "tiebreakers." Brett Favre will be back in the saddle at QB for this, his 57th season. Vernand Morency is unproven as a starting RB, and the second- and third-team guys at RB are all rookies (as is starting FB Korey Hall). The defense was very mediocre last year.
RJ Elliott is a graduate student at the University Of Central Florida. His passions in life are sports, politics, nature, and women who have piercings they never told their daddy about. He dislikes daytime television, left-wing dictators, and people who talk like Garrison Keillor. He is ambivalent about the names "Trig" and "Piper."
- RJ's NFL Picks, Week One
- Published: September 05, 2007
- Type: News
- Section: Sports
- Filed Under: Sports: Football (American)
- Part of a feature: NFL Picks
- Writer: RJ Elliott
- RJ Elliott's BC Writer page
- RJ Elliott's personal site
- Spread the Word
- Like this article?
- Email this
Save to del.icio.us
Comments on this articleComments
Steelers and Bears.
- Max Cleland
Ok, I'll bite. I say the Browns will take the Steelers and the Raiders defense will do bobo to the She-Lions.
I will also argue that the Eagles will challenge the Bears in the NFC.
NE - although the jets usually play the pats a tough dnt they? on a side note i say jets cover the 6 1/2..
um, how does google figure a cfl ad on this post? not that i'm complaining. we have bigger balls...
I'm tellin' you what I told everyone else:
Colts d. Saints
Steelers d. Browns
Redskins d. Dolphins
Eagles d. Packers
Broncos d. Bills
Texans d. Chiefs
Jaguars d. Titans
Patriots d. Jets
Rams d. Panthers
Vikings d. Falcons
Chargers d. Bears
Seahawks d. Buccaneers
Lions d. Raiders
Cowboys d. Giants
Bengals d. Ravens
49ers d. Cardinals
Final Score:
Indy 41(!) - NO 10
RJ - 1-0
Suss - 1-0
DOM - 1-0
Cleland - 1 arm - 0 legs
I want to add a couple. In addition to the Browns and Raiders. I will take the Eagles and Falcons.
Looks like I missed out on the Thursday game (what kind of sport kicks the season off on a THURSDAY for cryin' out loud??) but I'm here for everything else! Anyway, I don't know anything yet. I don't pay attention to football in the offseason, so I don't know who has who anymore. But I'll give it a try,..
Philadelphia (10-6) at Green Bay (8-8).. Philadelphia. If we lose this game, there will be no season.
Kansas City (9-7) at Houston (6-10) I love Houston. I want them to do well. But I have to be realistic. KC is going to destroy them.
Denver (9-7) at Buffalo (7-9)... I haven't the foggiest idea. I'll eenie-meenie-miney-moe for it... resulting in a nod toward Denver.
Pittsburgh (8-8) at Cleveland (4-12)... I think Pittsburgh's new coach is going to get really good results. Cleveland always plays Pittsburgh close but I can't see anyone but Pitts winning this.
Carolina (8-8) at St. Louis (8-8)... Coin-flip in favor of Carolina.
Atlanta (7-9) at Minnesota (6-10)... Minnesota was a disaster last year. Atlanta has had a hellish off season. But I think Minnesota, a year further removed from their troubles than Atlanta will be in a better state to take this game.
New England (12-4) at New York Jets (10-6)... I see the NY Jets winning this one, ending once and for all the "Will the Patriots go undefeated this season?" talks.
Miami (6-10) at Washington (5-11)... I really, really, really want Washington to lose. I don't think they will, though.
Tennessee (8-8) at Jacksonville (8-8)... I'm not voting against Vince Young. Tennessee.
Chicago (13-3) at San Diego (14-2)... This right here is a stellar matchup. I really want Chicago to get the year started off with a win... but they won't.
Tampa Bay (4-12) at Seattle (9-7)... Always go with Garcia. Tampa Bay.
Detroit (3-13) at Oakland (2-14)... Neither. Seriously. Actually, I'll go with Detroit. For the only time this year....
New York Giants (8-8) at Dallas (9-7)... They're both gonna suck this year. But it'll be an uphill battle for NYG in Dallas. Cowboys.
Baltimore (13-3) at Cincinnati (8-8)... Baltimore.
Arizona (5-11) at San Francisco (7-9)... I think San Fransico will be a lot better this year. They'll take the win here.
Final Score: Pats 38, Jets 14 - RJ 2-0
Broncos 15, Bills 14 - RJ 3-0
Titans 13, Jags 10 - RJ 3-1
Packers 16, Eagles 13 - RJ 3-2
Texans 20, Chiefs 3 - RJ 3-3
Carolina 27, Rams 13 - RJ 3-4
Redskins 16, Miami 13 (in OT) - RJ 3-5(!)
Vikings 24, Falcons 3 - RJ 4-5
Steelers 34, Browns 7 - RJ 5-5
Lions 36, Raiders 21(!) - RJ 6-5
Seattle 20, TB 6 - RJ 7-5
SD 14, Bears 3 - RJ 8-5
NFL "Experts" -
Theismann 10-3
Salisbury 9-4
Hoge 9-4
Jaworski 10-3
Schlereth 8-5
Allen 4-9
Mortensen 7-6
Golic 8-5
Accuscore 7-6
DOM 10-4.... KC Jags and Browns.. wow
Er, 11-3.
I should lose a win for that.
9-4 at the moment... Could definitely be worse.
RJ,
0-4
Now you know why. I don't deserve to buy fruit of the loom.
...but since I am such a sadist...
Cinci over Balti: In the immortal words of Diane Chambers: A Bengal versus a Raven? That's not a fair fight.
'Niners over the Diamond, er, Cardinals.
"If (more like, "when") Steve McNair struggles at QB and/or suffers an injury, expect Kyle Boller to do a fine job as his replacement."
Boy, did I ever call that one...
Final Score:
Bengals 27, Ravens 20 - RJ 10-5
Boller has a TD pass taken away from him by a bad call in the final minutes. Then Todd Heap misplays another would-be Boller TD pass, which turns into an INT and essentially ends the game.
Whatever. I still picked the winner. :-/
ESPN's NFL "Experts" -
Theismann 11-4
Salisbury 11-4
Hoge 11-4
Jaworski 11-3
Schlereth 10-5
Allen 5-10
Mortensen 9-6
Golic 9-6
Accuscore 8-7
As you can see, Theisntmann, Salisburysteak, and Hajji are all ahead of me by a single game. Jaws is up by a game and a half, because he doesn't pick the games that he ruins by commentating on. I'm tied with Scoliosis. I'm ahead of Viggo and Colic by a game, the Algorithm by two games, and the Alien by a whopping five games. (I could probably pick the teams I think are going to lose from here on out, and still beat Alien.)
wow SF very depressing game cant believe still came out with the win. not a good sign definitely not what i was expecting.
well final record for the week 12-4 :)
loved the Detroit Oakland game btw..
moral victory 2-4.
BlogCritics Pickers -
Suss 13-3
DOM 12-4
RJ 11-5
Theory 10-5
Senator Max Cleland(?) 1-1
Alessandro 2-4
* * * * *
ESPN's NFL "Experts" -
Theismann 11-5
Salisbury 12-4
Hoge 12-4
Jaworski 12-3
Schlereth 11-5
Allen 6-10
Mortensen 10-6
Golic 9-6
Accuscore 9-7
Sweet. I hereby retain the editor's tiara.
Wait. I mean scepter. Totally manly scepter.
I got work to do. What sport is this again?
According to my calculations, and the closing betting lines cited on this site, I picked the favorite to win 13 times, and the underdog to win 3 times. Favorites won 12 times, and underdogs won 4 times.
The only 'dog I picked correctly was Detroit. I was 10-3 picking favs.
But it looks like I went 4-11-1 against the spread in Week One. Which is probably why I don't bet on football... :-/
Add your comment, speak your mind
(Or ping: http://blogcritics.org/mt/tb/68267)
Hey man whats up good to see ur doing this again, sry I died off after the regular season last year, but i'll be with you the whole season this year. Im going to school at Humboldt State University in Northern California.
anyways been busy with school so don't know too much about the teams yet but its the first week I mean can anyone really predict with any type of precision?
INDY - would be very surprising if NO could pull off the w. should be a good game none the less. right?
HOUSTON - Tough call but I really think HOU has there s*** together more than KC
DENVER - I like BUF but Denver owns them.
PITTSBURGH - This is a tough call for me, it all depends on how a few key players will show up. CLEV should come out firing. but will it be enough?
JACKSONVILLE - Tell me how TEN will pull this one off?
ST. LOUIS - is CAR any good this year? and STL looks like they have a decent team? (as much as i dislike them) still stats showing coin flip game.
PHILADELPHIA - at first i had GB.. but then i remebered how they stunk it up last year at home the first few. plus Farve is now taking Viagra.
MINNESOTA - you tell me who will win i have no idea..
WASHINGTON - Both teams have lots of "ifs". flip a coin
TAMPA BAY - here's my big upset.. i really like TB this year from what i have read. and i dislike SEA.. if TB does win.. it will be in the last few minutes.
SAN DIEGO - be very surprised if CHI pulls a W here.
DETROIT - Being from Stockton CA (almost a sister city to Oakland about 1.5 hours east) i have a right to hate the Raiders due to the ignorant fans concentrated in Stockton. I think they have a great chance to win here, but i don't want to root for them.
DALLAS - another upset if NY could pull of a W.
CINCINNATI - these two teams always play each other hard.. I take CIN cuz home.
SF - Born and raised fan.. Dad is a die hard.. grew up in SF... greatest thing in the world would be for SF to take the NFC WEST.