"On the Money: Shrek grossed $485 million, Shrek 2 grossed $921 million, so if the third film follows the same trend it should come it at about $1.5 billion. Somehow I can't see that happening and while I think this will do well, I think it will fall well short of Shrek 2's figure and finish behind Spider-Man 3. Predicted worldwide gross: 750 million."

I think you are off. Shrek 2 is the highest grossing comedy OF ALL TIME. It pulls in adults and kids, which is why it will shatter it its own record.

I'm not the biggest fan of this "Franchise" (I hate this overused word in movies now!), but to think that Pirates will out draw it is laughable. The market is just so much bigger for Shrek than Pirates, they will spend their money on Shrek.

Mark my words. The Ogre gets the last laugh (although Donkey is still NOT funny!!!)

Thanks for the comment Ty.

You're right about Shrek pulling in both adults and kids but so does Pirates (although not quite such young kids). Still Shrek 2 didn't leave audiences with the need to see the next film. Pirates 2 did amazing business (more than Shrek 2) and it left audiences with a strong desire to see the conclusion, something they've only had to wait twelve months for.

I'm a big Shrek fan and as I said in the article Pirates does nothing for me, so I'd love to see the green dude knock Captain Jack on his arse. I just can't see it happening.

And I hate the term "Franchise" as well (although I've used it). It does seem to fit with the way Hollywood markets its movies - having more in common with McDonald's i.e what's advertised always looks nicer than what you end up with on your tray.

Pirates of the Caribbean was a great movie; it's a shame they never made any sequels.

What's that? I can't hear you. Nope, still can't. No sequels at all. That made sense and didn't suck, anyway. I won't be seeing At World's End, for sure.

Then again, I probably won't be seeing Shrek the Third, either. I'm in for Spider-man 3 and 28 Weeks Later, though. And yeah, that last one didn't make your list. Too bad it won't be a "big" movie, but it'll be better than many of these.

28 Weeks Later will be in the next list Philip, namely "10 Films to see this Summer if all the Blockbusters have sold out" (or maybe "10 Films to see this Summer if you don't want to leave your brain at home").

It's more than a little worrying that so many of this summers films are sequels but looking on the bright side, at least they're not remakes.

"Added to that they've messed with Spidey's origin, which may piss off the comic book geek contingent."

They already did that with the first movie by giving Peter a reason not to help the promoter out.

I am baffled by the Shrek franchise. I thought the first one was lame. Maybe I had had my fill of poop and fart jokes the day I saw it.

HP will certainly get a boost from the release of the final(?) book.

You're right they did but not to the same extent. This is a BIG change, along the lines of Tim Burton's Batman, where Joker killed Bruce Wayne's parents. It also seems more than a little lazy.

You obviously feel the same way about Shrek as I do about Pirates, Bicho.

As for Harry Potter, they are clearly hoping for a push from the final book, hence the summer opening, but I'm not convinced it'll work. With so much competition and a frankly bizarre choice for director, I think it will be a disappointment at the box office, at least by HP standards.

Spider-Man 3 actually costed around $500 million to make.

You forgot the Simpsons which is out in June 26th I think..it's going to kill the competition.

I thought the first Pirates was fun, but the second was a nonsensical bore.

Watch, The Simpsons jumped the shark at least 10 years ago. People might go, but it will most likely be lame.

lol, "costed"

I'm puzzled why Stardust is even considered for your list. I think it will be lucky if it gets close to $100 million worldwide, and I'm saying that being a fan of Gaiman.

As for the movies you missed, Ratatouille from Pixar is pretty much guaranteed to be one of the biggest of the year just because its Pixar. Evan Almighty has a good chance of being up there and after Madagascar, how can you not include the Surfing Penguins movie?

American movies are becoming into a great great great sequel (x3) at least 9 of the movies are sequels of sequeles of sequeueleles.. pathetic!

hollywood had good stuff before... now its just crap!

i like the personal note... hehe... check out my list of ten movies as well...

With the omissions from your list noted by others above, I think you have called it more or less right. Pity that American producers feel that Jackie Chan needs a US sidekick to appeal to the American moviegoing public; Chris Tucker is an absolute disaster and even Owen Wilson wasn't 100 percent successful. However Jackie is getting a little past it to hack it on his own and his recent Hong Kong movies, where he is trying to stretch his acting chops, are really no great shakes.

Ratatouille is surely big one. Surely will make 500 and above
What i can say this is just a list of Sequels of some big hits

You are wrong about Harry Potter. The buzz is currently extremely positive and given that the seventh book comes out a week later the hype going into the opening will be tremendous. It has a good chance of beating Goblet of Fire and certainly will do better than Prisoner of Azkaban.

Just read your comment,

Based on what has been shown so far, Yates seems to have handled it well. Also, as not being a fan of the franchise yourself, I think you are discounting the massive fanbase which has only grown since Goblet of Fire.

Nice listing, but you should know how to use headings (h2, h3) because movie titles are completely unnoticable in that stream of letters, I had to use Firebug to make them stand out (and really see which movies you're describing)

Thanks for the comments guys.

To the people who think I forgot the Simpsons, I didn't forget it I just think that, in a summer full of epic blockbusters, audiences won't want to go and see something they've been able to watch for free on TV for almost 20 years. But I could be wrong.

VanJoe, I think Stardust is going to do well because it will work as a date movie; it's a fantasy rom-com. I think it would have done better if it wasn't following Harry Potter though. In fact I think the film should have been held over until Christmas when it could have cleaned up rather than fighting for Harry's scraps.

Pat, I think you're spot on about Jackie Chan. It's a pity he never really got a chance at Hollywood when he was in his prime.

guru, Ratatouille is I think going to see Pixar finally fall from grace. Cars underperformed, more so at the international box office than the US, and is generally regarded as the weakest of the studios output and I think they have lost their knack for picking winners. Plus will audiences want to go and see a film when they can't pronounce the title? "An adult and two kids for Raty..Ratatat..Rataloo...Shrek 3."

Mike D, I'm not discounting the massive Harry Potter fanbase, in fact I'm counting on it to the tune of $730m. It's the more casual viewer I think will waver towards Pirates, Spider-Man and some of the others. I think this is the stiffest competition Harry's had to deal with and I think he'll survive but the best he can hope for will be finishing third, he may get past Shrek but not Spidey and Pirates.

If I've let my personal taste affect any of the predictions it's the Fantastic Four. It may be wishful thinking that puts it at number 5 with $450m but as I said in the article it could go either way. If it fails then Transformers will fill the void and the places will be reversed. We'll have to wait and see.

And Riddle, I'll keep that in mind for next time.

I would put Pirates at #1, and Rush Hour 3 #2. The Rush Hour movies are a great time, and that's what we want at the movies.

You don't even mention the movie that is the top of my must see list - "The Simpsons"

No I don't, and I just said why in the comment right above yours.

Are the predicted worldwide gross figures from marketing research sources or are they just off the top of your head?

Well off the top of my head sounds like I just picked a numbers out of a hat but they are my figures.

I tried to take into account the general buzz about the film, studio hype (which can sometimes have a negative effect)including the trailers, and, most importantly in a summer so full of sequels, how previous parts fared.

Movie News (#7), you really should read the Radar Magazine article to which you linked before quoting from it. All sources connected with the studio claim the film's budget was *less* than $300 million, so Ian is already a bit high from their perspective.

I've seen other claims that the $500 million figure includes marketing and promotion and such, which aren't normally included in a film's budget. In other words, none of the other films on this list include those costs, so neither should Spider-man 3.

PW, it is possible that no one at the studio wants to admit the costs. It wouldn't be the first time.

El B, sure, it's possible. Probable, even. My point is that Ian is not completely off-base here, and it's all speculation at this point.

i agree with you cars was the dumbest movie by pixar and its pretty difficult to pronounce Ratatouille :-(

I absolutely disagree with you about Ratatouille and Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix.
You are saying that Ratatouille will be a dud just because every Pixar movie (all seven of them) have been incredible successes. It is almost derivative to assume that they are bound to foul up soon. But I do not think that is going to happen. Cars was a wonderful movie and Ratatouille is looking good in the trailer. I guess we'll have to wait and watch.
But whatever your opinion is about the movie, you have to accept that you simply forgot to add it to the list. It definitely deserved a place there. This list is about the biggest films of the summer and a Pixar movie is as big as they get.

As for Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, it has success written all over it. Mark my words, it is going to be the highest grossing Potter movie yet. Almost every Potter fan is dying to see this movie and everyone knows how huge a group of people we are talking about when the Harry Potter series is involved. :)

I'm not saying that Ratatouille will fail just because every other Pixar film has been a success. It's failure (if it fails) will be down to Shrek the Third and the summer's other big animated film, The Simpsons. I can't see three animated films doing mega business over the summer, only one will reign supreme. Plus I don't think there is the kind of excitement about Ratatouille as there has been about other Pixar flicks like Toy Story 2 or The Incredibles.

And do you really think that the cult of Harry accounts for all the money the films have made? Do you think every single person who goes to see the films has read the books? It will be big sure, but some of the people who go and see Potter films but have never read the books will be tempted by some of the other big films that come out before this one. It is the last of the summers big four to come out of the starting gate and even taking into account the added publicity of the new book I think it will pay dearly for that.

But as Philip said, it's all speculation. Who knows Rush Hour 3 could be the biggest film of the year ;)

the top films of the summer will outgross anything in the last 2 years

The top films of the summer or for that matter will include:
Spiderman which will have the biggest opening ever at 145mill and go on to make closs to 1 billion worldwide
Pirates is a close second with and long holiday weekend opening of 140 million with an 800 mill total gross
Happy Potter will come in third with an opening weekend of 80 million and go on to end closee to 650 million
Shreck will open at 80million with total gross of million
Oceans Twelve will open at 50 milion with total gross of 300 milion
28 weeks later will open at 35 mill then drop off to gross only 120 million
Hairspray will open at 27 milion then slow down with a final gross of close to 1million
Bourne sequal will open at 60 million and go on to gross 330 million
fantastic four will open at 50 million and eventually make 200 million

evan o mighty will open large at 45 million and stands to gross 200million
blades of glory while over its itial opening will end up with 180 million
Distrubia will hit 120 million when all is said and done
live free die hard will open with less that 25 million and barely break even
the simpson will open big at about 45 million a gross over 140 million
knock up will open at 22 million with the potentiol to hit 100 total

Hlloween and Boardertown will open big at 45 milion with a total gross of 120 mllion

Nancy Drew will open at 18 mill then fall off the charts making under 50 million

the invasion will open at 33 million and go on to gross over 100 million

sweeny todd will open at 18 million but go on to gross 120 million

Alvin and the chipmunks will open at 26 million with a total froas of 150 million

Distrubia is the best movie I have ever seen. It's really great. I love it. I can't wait to see it again. Shia LaBouef is a great actor. I really like him. He's great in this movie. I LOVE DISTRUBIA.