Will win: Helen Mirren
Should win: Helen Mirren

Best Supporting Actor

• Alan Arkin
• Eddie Murphy
• Mark Wahlberg
• Djimon Hounsou
• Jackie Earle Haley

Alan Arkin is hilarious in Little Miss Sunshine, and it's a category in which comedic performances really have a good chance. Eddie Murphy shines in Dreamgirls. It's one of those once-in-a-lifetime role and he did an outstanding job. But would the Academy award someone who also gave us Norbit and Daddy Daycare? Mark Wahlberg has come a long way — he was great in Invincible and he practically stole the scenes from everyone in The Departed, but his role is too small. I'm not sure why Djimon Hounsou is nominated — his over-acting and stock character are underwhelming. Jackie Earle Haley has two things going against him: lack of name recognition plus the smallness of Little Children.

Will win: Alan Arkin
Should win: Eddie Murphy

Best Supporting Actress

• Rinko Kikuchi
• Abigail Breslin
• Jennifer Hudson
• Cate Blanchett
• Adrianna Barraza

Rinko Kikuchi and Adrianna Barraza are both extraordinary, but they're splitting the Babel votes. Abigail Breslin is lovely in Sunshine, but she is very young and she has very strong competition, plus it's a comedic role. Cate Blanchett is excellent in Notes on a Scandal, but her character may alienate voters; besides, she won in the same category two years ago for a much showier role. That leaves Jennifer Hudson. She stole every scene and was the heart and soul of the entire movie. Her triumphant turn from being an American Idol reject to Oscar nominee is inspiring. The only thing against her is that it's her first film role, but that never stopped the Academy before.

Will win: Jennifer Hudson
Should win: Jennifer Hudson

Best Original Screenplay

• Little Miss Sunshine
• The Queen
• Babel
• Pan's Labyrinth
• Letters from Iwo Jima

The Queen is wonderfully written, but it really is Helen Mirren's show, and the nomination should be honor enough. Babel is complicated and manipulative — then again, Crash won last year. Pan's Labyrinth is a wonderful, inventive story and might get some solid votes. Letters suffers for its subtitles. Sunshine has that Cinderella story written all over it, plus it really was a crowd-pleaser.

Will win: Pan's Labyrinth
Should win: Pan's Labyrinth

Best Adapted Screenplay

• The Departed
• Little Children
• Notes on a Scandal
• Borat
• Children of Men

This is tough. Okay, maybe not that tough. I think Borat's nomination is a joke. William Monahan (The Departed) did a marvelous adapting a Hong Kong action film into a drama about Bostonian Irish mobs, but the convoluted plot might hurt it. Little Chidren is a bit stark and slight. I find Patrick Marber's (a writer I admire) adaptation of Zoe Heller's controversial novel, Notes on a Scandal, too on the nose and obvious. Children of Men is extraordinarily dark and violent, but it leaves you with a sense of awe.

Will win: The Departed
Should win: Children of Men