As a movie critic, I see a lot of films every year. As a movie buff, I enjoy movies. As a writer, I appreciate a good script. As an actor, I understand good performances. And as a consumer, I believe in solid entertainment that also enlightens, enthralls, and educates.

I've seen most of the nominated films and performances this year. I have to admit, I don't think 2006 was a stellar year for films. I am, however, impressed by the number of independent as well as mainstream films that deal with interesting characters and stories and dare to take some risks. The problem is, the general public might not be on the same page. Audiences prefer mainstream, high profile productions — big names, big stars, big budgets. With four of the five best picture nominees being independent films, Oscar might lose its luster once again this year (except for Ellen Degeneres — she's going to bring some fun to the show, I'm sure).

Best Picture

• Little Miss Sunshine
• Babel
• Letters from Iwo Jima
• The Departed
• The Queen

Letters is critically acclaimed but without the box office traction; and it's in Japanese with subtitles. Sunshine has a lot going for it — humor, dysfunctional family, crowd-pleasing plot and characters, and stellar performances — but it may simply be too lightweight; besides, comedies seldom win. The Queen is wonderful, but perhaps a bit too intimate, and many voters might be satisfied with giving Helen Mirren an award. That leaves Babel — this year's Crash — and The Departed. Both are violent and disturbing but also very entertaining. Personally, I am disappointed with The Departed, but Babel is not necessarily a crowd-pleaser either.

Will win: Babel
Should win: Letters from Iwo Jima

Best Director

• Clint Eastwood (Letters from Iwo Jima)
• Martin Scorsese (The Departed)
• Stephen Frears (The Queen)
• Alejandro González Iñárritu (Babel)
• Paul Greengrass (Flight 93)

Eastwood already won twice in the last five years — enough said. The Queen is a showcase for its acting talent; Frears should be honored just to be nominated. Greengrass is the dark horse — his handling of the 9/11 film garnered much respect. Iñárritu is a long shot, but a Babel vote may push him over the top as well. Scorsese has been passed over so many times it's become a joke. And Hollywood may want to right some wrongs this year.

Will win: Martin Scorsese
Should win: Martin Scorsese

Best Actor

• Will Smith
• Ryan Gosling
• Leonardo DiCaprio
• Forest Whitaker
• Peter O'Toole

Smith's performance is good, but only good for a nomination, not a win. Gosling's star is definitely rising, but this is not his year, with such strong competition. DiCarprio should have been nominated for The Departed instead. Peter O'Toole is a marvel, and may get enough sentimental votes to win. Forest Whitaker's tour de force performance makes him a front-runner, but many believe his was a supporting role.

Will win: Forest Whitaker
Should win: Peter O'Toole

Best Actress

• Meryl Streep
• Helen Mirren
• Penélope Cruz
• Judi Dench
• Kate Winslet

Meryl Streep is delicious in Prada but it's difficult to win for a comedy, especially with such strong dramatic competition. Cruz's powerful performance is too intimate, plus it's a foreign film. Judi Dench has a juicy role, but I find it too stereotypical and predictable. Kate Winslet is a great actress and her time will come, just not this year. Why? Because Helen Mirren is in the running. There's absolutely nothing negative about Mirren's performance. It was a revelation. Besides, it's about time the wonderful actress gets her crown.