OPINION

Soccer Powers Remain Safe - For Now

Written by Alessandro Nicolo
Published January 20, 2007

After the 2002 World Cup, it was proclaimed that the traditional soccer powers were on the run. Journalists and casual soccer fans alike giggled like school children at the thought of these countries falling to their knees.

The recent 2006 World Cup brought this belief to a sudden halt. Every World Cup has its "feel good story" and upsets, but that doesn't mean it points to any trend.

Since 1982 just a few inroads have been made in terms of challenging the big powers. Still, we would be mistaken to think if smaller nations have not improved. We are indeed beginning to see more upsets. Maybe it's a small step towards seeing with a little luck a country from outside South American and Europe win it all one day.

However, the World Cup remains a tournament fought on two continents - Europe (UEFA) and South America (COMMEBOL)- vying for soccer bragging rights.

Intercontinental match win-losses, 1982-2006:

South America vs. Europe: Europe leads 33-22-31
South America vs. world: South America leads 57-28-38
Europe vs. world: Europe leads 113-58-56
Africa vs. world: 18-23-39
Asia/Oceania vs. world: 9-14-45
North America vs. world: 14-15-33

Even a superficial glance at the results suggests there is no trend towards knocking out the powers on any consistent basis. 2002 was a tremor and not an earthquake.

Nonetheless the big countries, to their credit, have not ignored the warning signals. The tightening of quality has jolted them out of any complacency. Very few countries can be taken lightly anymore.

What continues to distinguish the powers from the would-be powers is wealth — 85% of which is derived from Europe. Which explains why even if smaller countries improve, the rich ones can always replenish quickly. This points to depth of talent. How deep your bench is (and pockets since we're on the subject) is a statement understood in any sport. Even between the powers the difference usually comes down to the strength of your reserves.

From 1982 to 1994, when the World Cup still had a 24-team format, the smaller regional confederations (CONCACAF, CAF, AFC) had 25% of the spots, yet were conspicuous by their absence in Round Robin play. Excluding Mexico, considered a world-class team, just five teams between '82 and '94 managed to reach the Round of 16 and three were from Africa (CAF).* In fact, just one country made it as far as the quarters (Cameroon in 1990). Speaking of Africa, it's the only continent that has managed to get representation in any meaningful manner.

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Alessandro Nicolo is an obtuse freelance writer living in obscene obscurity.
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Soccer Powers Remain Safe - For Now
Published: January 20, 2007
Type: Opinion
Section: Sports
Filed Under: Sports: Football (English)
Writer: Alessandro Nicolo
Alessandro Nicolo's BC Writer page
Alessandro Nicolo's personal site
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