NEWS

NFL Picks of a Thoughtful Fool, Conference Showdown Edition

Written by David Mazzotta
Published January 17, 2007

I couldn't do it. I vowed to keep my fat mouth shut until the Super Bowl but I couldn't do it. So I'll make this quick.

It's all the fault of the Peytons and the Bradys. I can't tell you how happy I am about this game. I know that the Chargers and the Ravens were the two best teams all year long, but there is simply no way a game between them could be as compelling as another Colts/Pats match up.

Indy got here by beating the Ravens. This was billed as a sort of revenge game for the city of Baltimore since they supposedly haven't gotten over the Colts fleeing in the middle of the night about 150 years ago. In fact, they found the act of stealing another city's team so despicable that they did it to the Browns some years later. The press played up this angle but, in fact, nobody really gives a rip anymore.

Actually, Indy got here by suddenly finding a defense. Baltimore holding the vaunted Colts offense to nothing but a handful of field goals sounds about right, but the Ravens only scoring a couple of field goals on the Colts doesn't scan. Yes, the Ravens offense has been mediocre all year, but the Colts D has been abysmal, especially against the run.

I guess things have changed. The resurgence of the Indy D has to be the most unexpected development of the post-season. There is no way I would have given the Colts a chance at making the Super Bowl this year but, with apologies to Dennis Green, the Colts are not who we thought they were. Even the offense has been surprising. Did you see them run a flea flicker? Did you see Peyton scramble for a first down? He moved with all the swiftness and grace of Paulie Walnuts chasing a wounded Russian through the Pine Barrens, but still.

Meanwhile, the Pats managed to get creamed by San Diego but somehow win the game. We were supposed to see another example of Marty Schottenheimer blowing a playoff game and we didn't. Well, not really. There was a ridiculous challenge that cost them a timeout and the bizarre call to go for it on 4th and 11 early on, which was dumb. Be afraid when your coach makes sacrificial play calls just to make a point about aggressiveness. Do you really need to be taught for the post-season? Otherwise, Marty was oaky. The big problem was the Chargers receivers were channeling Tony Romo.

Brady did his best Jake Plummer imitation but the Pats managed to recover 5 out of 5 fumbles to cancel that out. Know what? The Colts recovered all the fumbles in their game, too. At Football Outsiders they make the point that while causing fumbles is a matter of effort and skill, which team recovers is essentially random. If I believed in fate, I would say Manning vs. Brady was pre-ordained.

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David Mazzotta is author of the comic novels Apple Pie and Business as Usual.
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NFL Picks of a Thoughtful Fool, Conference Showdown Edition
Published: January 17, 2007
Type: News
Section: Sports
Filed Under: Sports: Football (American)
Part of a feature: NFL Picks of a Thoughtful Fool
Writer: David Mazzotta
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Comments

#1 — January 18, 2007 @ 00:23AM — Matthew T. Sussman [URL]

Anyone else think the Saints should put the eye black vertically on their right cheek in support of Drew Brees?

#2 — January 18, 2007 @ 00:51AM — RJ Elliott [URL]

Dude. I know I'm wrong about 42% of the time, but:

Bears Win Big.

It's gonna be like 34 degrees out there on Sunday. The Saints are a warm-weather dome road team. And they barely won at home last week. They're toast.

#3 — January 18, 2007 @ 09:28AM — david mazzotta

I wish I was wrong only 42% of the time.

Dude. I can't imagine the Bears winning big. They aren't the team they were in the first half of the season.

And beating the Eagles (who were probably the best team in the NFC) means a lot more than beating the lame-ass Seahawks (who were one of the worst).

Although, I will be secretly rooting for the Bears because I still hope to spend Super Bowl Sunday in Chicago at Ditka's.

#4 — January 18, 2007 @ 21:29PM — RJ Elliott [URL]

Did anyone else see Ditka on PTI the other day? The guy was barely coherent, but he sure sounded like he's seriously thinking about running against Dick Durbin for the Senate in 2008...

#5 — January 18, 2007 @ 22:12PM — alessandro nicolo [URL]

Either way, is the NFC going to pull a National League St. Louis Cardinals thingy in the SB?

#6 — January 18, 2007 @ 23:40PM — Mark Saleski

what, you mean that they'll take themselve way too seriously and then be surprised when a superior team comes in a beats the snot out of them? gee, i hope so.

#7 — January 21, 2007 @ 17:53PM — david mazzotta

I'm heading out to watch the late game with TInkerbell, but that Vasher interception seals it.

Four turnovers and an intentional grounding in the end zone. Pathetic.

RJ - I am not worthy. And neither are the Saints.

#8 — January 21, 2007 @ 18:25PM — RJ [URL]

I suspect the AFC Championship Game will be a bit closer... :-/

#9 — January 21, 2007 @ 23:17PM — david mazzotta

Wowie Zowie what a game!! I told you you should watch!!

I take solace in the confirmation of myself as a first rate negative indicator.

#10 — January 21, 2007 @ 23:19PM — Matthew T. Sussman [URL]

If it makes you feel better*, NE-NO was also my call. I just didn't want a black coach in the Super Bowl.

* - Probably doesn't.

#11 — January 22, 2007 @ 03:34AM — RJ Elliott [URL]

I was *cough* 2-0 *cough* this week...

So maybe I'm only wrong 41% of the time? :-/

#12 — January 22, 2007 @ 10:56AM — david mazzotta

Black coaches are the new Jerome Bettis homecoming. I can't wait to hear Michael Irvin's take.

I'm glad to see Dungy in. He deserves it after building up that Tampa team years ago only to have Coach Chuckie end up reaping the benefit.

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