RJ's NFL Picks - Week Seventeen
Published December 31, 2006
I went 7-9 last week. That puts me at 140-100 for the season, which is an overall winning percentage of approximately 58%. (For a comparison, check out the "experts" over at ESPN.)
The following are my picks for the NFL's Week Seventeen:
Saturday, Dec. 30
New York Giants (7-8) at Washington (5-10) - 8:00 pm
The Giants have finally slipped below .500 after having dropped their last two games. However, they are still likely to make it into the postseason with a win Saturday night (depending on how Green Bay does, and the strength-of-victory tiebreaker). The Redskins are just playing for pride, and the chance to be spoilers.
RJ’s Pick – Redskins by 1
Sunday, Dec. 31
Carolina (7-8) at New Orleans (10-5) - 1:00 pm
Carolina becomes a playoff team with a win and a Giants loss plus a Packers loss. New Orleans has already wrapped up the #2 seed in the NFC and has nothing to play for, so they may rest their starters.
RJ’s Pick – Carolina by 3
Cleveland (4-11) at Houston (5-10) - 1:00 pm
Cleveland has dropped three straight. Houston is coming off a shocking win against the Colts last week.
RJ’s Pick – Texans by 4
Detroit (2-13) at Dallas (9-6) - 1:00 pm
This is a sad week for me, as I find myself forced to pick against my beloved Lions. Dallas is still playing for something (the NFC East title), while Detroit would actually be better off losing, so they can get the #1 pick in next year’s draft.
RJ’s Pick – Dallas by 23
Jacksonville (8-7) at Kansas City (8-7) - 1:00 pm
Both teams still have a shot at earning a Wild Card berth, but they both need a win and a lot of help. Jacksonville is an awful away team, so I’ll go with the Chiefs.
RJ’s Pick – KC by 5
New England (11-4) at Tennessee (8-7) - 1:00 pm
Tennessee has won six in a row. If they can make it seven, they have a decent shot at making the postseason. And you can be sure that nobody wants to meet a team as hot as the Titans in the playoffs.
RJ’s Pick – Tennessee by 2
Oakland (2-13) at New York Jets (9-6) - 1:00 pm
The Jets are in with a win. Oakland is winless on the road this year.
RJ’s Pick - Jets by 11
Pittsburgh (7-8) at Cincinnati (8-7) - 1:00 pm
The Bengals can still make the playoffs with a win and some help. But the Steelers stand in their way, and the Super Bowl champs aren't going to just roll over for a division rival in their last game of the season.
RJ Elliott is a graduate student at the University Of Central Florida. His passions in life are sports, politics, nature, and women who have piercings they never told their daddy about. He dislikes daytime television, left-wing dictators, and people who talk like Garrison Keillor. He is ambivalent about the names "Trig" and "Piper."
- RJ's NFL Picks - Week Seventeen
- Published: December 31, 2006
- Type: Opinion
- Section: Sports
- Filed Under: Sports: Football (American)
- Part of a feature: NFL Picks
- Writer: RJ Elliott
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I was on my way home from church this morning and I was like, OMG, I haven't picked yet! Thankfully I had an hour to spare...
Carolina (7-8) at New Orleans (10-5)... Carolina no longer has a chance. I don't see them overcoming New Orleans, resting or no.
Cleveland (4-11) at Houston (5-10)... Who cares? Houston, but only for propriety's sake.
Detroit (2-13) at Dallas (9-6)... Dallas (a no-brainer).
Jacksonville (8-7) at Kansas City (8-7)... Eccch. I feel Jacksonville in this one.
New England (11-4) at Tennessee (8-7)... Tennessee. Partially because of their QB, partially because NE is already in and can't improve their position any.
Oakland (2-13) at New York Jets (9-6)... NYJ.
Pittsburgh (7-8) at Cincinnati (8-7)... Cincinnati. Perhaps if this game was on the Steeler's home turf, I might reconsider... but Cincinnati needs this win too bad to wilt at their house.
Seattle (8-7) at Tampa Bay (4-11)... Sure. RJ's reasoning is sound with this one. Tampa Bay.
Saint Louis (7-8) at Minnesota (6-9)... Minnesota was a weird team this year. There was a point where they were winning games left and right... then all of a sudden something happened and they totally fizzled from view. Well, St Louis should win this one.
Arizona (5-10) at San Diego (13-2)... San Diego.
Atlanta (7-8) at Philadelphia (9-6)... Atlanta's season is now over, and Philadelphia needs a win. They'll get it.
Buffalo (7-8) at Baltimore (12-3)... Baltimore.
Miami (6-9) at Indianapolis (11-4)... Indy... though I think Miami will give them more fits than they will care to admit.
San Francisco (6-9) at Denver (9-6)... Denver. But I'm excited for San Francisco next year.
Green Bay (7-8) at Chicago (13-2)... Green Bay only has the sleightest of slim hopes of making the post season-- I believe they need 9 improbable wins from 9 teams today. Essentially, the post season is a no-go for them. But if this is Favre's last game, then he'll notch it up a step. However, only Favre knows whether that is true. I'll pick Green Bay... however, a Chicago win will not shock me at all.
New Orleans
Cleveland
Dallas
Jacksonville
Tennessee
N.Y. Jets
Pittsburgh
Seattle
St. Louis
San Diego
Philadelphia
Baltimore
Indianapolis
Denver
Chicago
Oh, and the Lions are winning, in the 4th quarter, on the road, against a good team, and this is the ONLY TIME all season I picked against them...
#$&@!!!
Lions up by 8 with under three minutes to go...Lord help me...
The Bengals just missed a potential game-winning 39-yard field goal with mere second left!!!
Final Score:
Steelers 23, Bengals 17 (in OT) - RJ 5-2 (AND I NAILED THE SPREAD!)
Final Score:
KC 35, Jags 30 - RJ 6-2 (AND I NAILED THE SPREAD AGAIN!!!)
Final Score:
Detroit 39, Dallas 31 - RJ 6-3
(Holy Balls! I need to pick against the Lions more often! Well, there's always next year...)
Mildly-retarded Vince Young is 13-for-33 passing with under two minutes left in the game...
And he's been sacked five times, and thrown two INTs...
ESPN's NFL "experts" -
Theismann 5-5
Salisbury 7-3
Hoge 5-5
Jaworski 7-3
Schlereth 4-6
Allen 6-4
Mortensen 5-5
Golic 8-2
Accuscore 5-5
Ten games into Week 17, I am -
Ahead of five "experts"
Tied with one "expert"
And behind three "experts"
I am 146-104 overall...a winning percentage of over 58%.
Golic 157-93 - 62.8%
Accuscore 154-96 - 61.6%
Allen 151-99 - 60.4%
Jaworski 150-100 - 60.0%
Theismann 139-95 - 59.4%
Schlereth 148-102 - 59.2%
Salisbury 147-103 - 58.8%
RJ Elliott 146-104 - 58.4%
Hoge (a cheater, and a coward) 144-105 - 57.8%
Mortensen 135-115 - 54.0%
I'm pretty sure I'm doing horrible this week... but honestly I don't care. Lions beat the Cowboys... the Eagles back-up players are taking care of Atlanta... tastes like chicken!
Final Scores:
SD 27, Arizona 20 - RJ 7-4
SF 26, Denver 23 (in OT) - RJ 7-5
Indy 27, Miami 22 - RJ 8-5
Ravens 19, Bills 7 - RJ 9-5
Philly 24, Atlanta 17 - RJ 10-5
Theismann 9-6
Salisbury 11-4
Hoge 9-6
Jaworski 11-4
Schlereth 7-8
Allen 10-5
Mortensen 9-6
Golic 12-3
Accuscore 9-6
Wonderful week for me. Deliciously wonderful!
6-10. I'll calculate my season totals on Wednesday.
Theismann 10-6
Salisbury 11-5
Hoge 10-6
Jaworski 12-4
Schlereth 7-9
Allen 11-5
Mortensen 9-7
Golic 12-4
Accuscore 9-7
Pretty solid week for me. I beat five, tied two, and lost to two (but only by one game each).
For the season, I went 151-105, for a winning percentage of 59.0%.
Here is where ESPN's NFL "experts" finished for the season:
Golic 161-95 (62.9%)
Accuscore 158-98 (61.7%)
Allen 156-100 (60.9%)
Jaworski 155-101 (60.5%)
Theismann 144-96 (60.0%)
RJ Elliott 151-105 (59.0%)
Salisbury 151-105 (59.0%)
Schlereth 151-105 (59.0%)
Hoge 149-106 (58.4%)
Mortensen 139-116 (54.3%)
So, I beat two, tied two, and lost to five. Very mediocre.
9-7... which means this is the first time in seven weeks that i've picked above .500!!! This includes a 4-12 in week 16 that basically put the nail in the coffin. Talk about your all time second half meltdowns!!!
I regret to say after doing all my calculations that RJ has got me by one game!! :)
my total for the year is 150-106 (58.6%)
151-103... i STILL don't know why I'm off by two instead of one... I suppose if I went back and recalculated the whole shebang I would discover it... but that takes too much time and effort. So I'll just slap the two I'm off by on to the loss column... 151-105.
RJ,
I really enjoyed reading your blog this season!
GJ
Hi RJ,
So how 'bout them Niners? Did not expect that
and Detroit!!!!!! Whoa momma!
GJ
RJ's NFL Playoff Picks - WILD CARD WEEKEND!!!
Saturday, Jan. 6
Kansas City at Indianapolis - 4:30 pm (NBC)
Danny Sheridan's odds: Colts by 3...50½ points
KC is 3-5 on the road. The Colts are 8-0 at home.
KC has won two in a row, but needed help in Week 17 just to qualify for the postseason. The Colts have gone 3-4 in their last seven games.
COLTS 38, KC 24
Dallas at Seattle - 8:00 pm (NBC)
Danny Sheridan's odds: Seattle by 3...46½ points
Seattle is 5-3 at home. Dallas is 5-3 on the road.
Dallas has lost two in a row, and three of their last four. Seattle won the last game of the regular season, but had lost three in a row prior to that.
Seattle was outscored by 6 points overall, despite going 9-7 and winning their (pathetic) division.
Dallas outscored their opponents by 75 points overall, despite coming in 2nd place at 9-7 in their (relatively-strong) division.
I gotta go with Dallas in this one.
COWBOYS 31, SEAHAWKS 20
Sunday, Jan. 7
N.Y. Jets at New England - 1:00 pm (CBS)
Danny Sheridan's odds: Pats by 9...37½ points
The Pats are 5-3 at home. The Jets are 6-2 on the road. (Both teams strangely had better road records than home records during the regular season...)
New England has won three in a row. The Jets have also won three straight.
However, The Pats scored 152 more points than they gave up during the regular season. The Jets are only +21 in that department.
NEW ENGLAND 27, JETS 13
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia - 4:30 pm (FOX)
Danny Sheridan's odds: Eagles by 6½...46 points
Philly is 5-3 at home. The Giants are 5-3 on the road.
The Eagles have won an amazing five straight. The Giants are 2-6 in their last eight games, and barely made the playoffs as a .500 team.
PHILADELPHIA 23, GIANTS 17
I figured there'd be a whole new post for the playoffs, but I guessed wrong. So that is why I am a tad late (but still before kickoff!)...
Kansas City at Indianapolis... This is a tough one. Indy has been, by all acounts, underaching this last 1/3rd of the season. Yet, they can still be quite dominant and are nothing to sneer at. I have to pick Indy.
Dallas at Seattle... On the one hand, Dallas can score points. On the other hand, this is the team that lost to the LIONS (who had more to gain BY losing)... AND they weren't intentionally half-assing it, either. I think I'll pick Seattle because Dallas doesn't know who the hell they are right now.
Yeah, I'm gonna do all my playoff picks on this post...FYI.
N.Y. Jets at New England... New England is the preppy pick for sports radio commentators. Meanwhile, few people are giving much at NY any credit, settling instead for possibly handing their coach the award for coach of the year. Which may be what they have to settle for because, despite an impressive win over NE in december, the Jets are going to have trouble in this one. NE.
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia... The Giants just want to forget about this season. There have been highs (most giants fans would probably point to the season's second game with the improbable come-back V against the Eagles) and lows (the entire second half of the season)... and the team has appeard to disintigrate into bickering and loathing. Do the players even want to win this game? Eagles. By a lot.
Final Scores:
Indy 23, KC 8 - RJ 1-0
Seattle 21, Dallas 20 - RJ 1-1
2-0... what a great game in Seattle! It pumped me up.
Final Score:
Eagles 23, Giants 20 - RJ 3-1
Saturday, Jan. 13
Indianapolis (13-4) at Baltimore (13-3) - 4:30 - CBS
The Ravens defense should be able to shut down the Colts offense. Also, Indy is a poor road team.
BALTIMORE BY 9
Philadelphia (11-6) at New Orleans (10-6) - 8:00 - FOX
The Eagles have won six straight, and are a solid all-around team. New Orleans has a potent offense, but they underperformed at home during the regular season, they limped into the playoffs by losing two of their last three, and I think their lack of experience will be the death of them here.
EAGLES BY 3
Sunday, Jan. 14
Seattle (10-7) at Chicago (13-3) - 1:00 - FOX
I fully realize there are many (legitimate) question marks surrounding the Bears offense. And their defense gave up at least 21 points in each of their last four regular season games. But the Seahawks simply are not a very good team this year, and they should consider themselves lucky to even be playing right now.
CHICAGO BY 13
New England (13-4) at San Diego (14-2) - 4:30 - CBS
I believe the winner of this game will go on to Super Bowl...and win. San Diego was undefeated at home during the regular season, but the Pats were 7-1 on the road. Tough call, but I've been on the Chargers bandwagon since 2005, and I'm not gonna jump off now.
CHARGERS BY 1
Indianapolis (13-4) at Baltimore (13-3)... Baltimore. I don't see Indy coming into Maryland and dominating anything.
Philadelphia (11-6) at New Orleans (10-6)... This game makes me cautious. Either team has a fighting chance. The Eagles suffered the injury of Lito Shepherd last week, which could be key against a potent passing offence in NO. However, I don't believe in the "aura of destiny" that people say surrounds this Saints team. I think they will keep it close until the end. But the Eagles will find a way to win.
Seattle (10-7) at Chicago (13-3)... Sure, Chicago has been the team in the NFC. But I don't trust their offence at all. And their defence is beat up and not at the top of their game. Seattle.
New England (13-4) at San Diego (14-2)... A largely unproven quarterback vs one of the biggest quarterbacks in the playoffs the past how many years. Brady'll git R done.
For what it's worth.
Indianapolis (13-4) at Baltimore (13-3)..
Manning will try and throw this game away
just like with KC but don't expect the Indy "D"
to show up twice in a row and on the road.
BALTIMORE BY 6
Philadelphia (11-6) at New Orleans (10-6)..
Did anyone notice McNabb getting in Garcia's
way on the sideline last weekend? I think he
is worried about his job. Anyway, I like the eagles chances here. It really could go
either way. Home field I think plays a big
factor for this game.
SAINTS BY 3
Seattle (10-7) at Chicago (13-3)..
Da' Bears win this but not by much. They
have been struggling greatly. Don't forget
the sea-chickens put up a good fight against
the Chargers a couple of weeks ago.
CHICAGO BY 5
New England (13-4) at San Diego (14-2)..
Gotta go with RJ on this one...
San Diego by 1
SAINTS BY 1
Final Score:
Philadelphia 24, New Orleans 27 - RJ 0-2
Well, I nailed the spreads for both games...just with the wrong winners! :-/
You'd be a whiz in Vegas's up-and-coming Absolute Value Pick 'Em
So far I'm 0-3 for the weekend. Yay.
Through 8 playoff games (and with only 3 more to go), I'm 4-4.
Here is where ESPN's NFL "experts" are at:
Theismann 4-4
Salisbury 5-3
Hoge 7-1
Jaworski 5-3
Schlereth 6-2
Allen 4-4
Mortensen 4-4
Golic 6-2
Accuscore 5-3
Conference Championships
Sunday, January 21st
New Orleans at Chicago - 3:00 pm - FOX
The weather forecast for Sunday afternoon in Chicago is just barely above freezing. 'Nuff said.
BEARS BY 13
New England at Indianapolis - 6:30 pm - CBS
This is the Game of the Year! It will be much more competitive and entertaining than the Super Bowl will turn out to be. People will sing songs about this game a hundred years from now. Whichever team wins this matchup is certain to go on to win the Super Bowl, and everyone knows it.
If it was being played in Foxborough, I would give the Patriots the nod without hesitation. But it's being played at the RCA Dome, so I'll have to go, somewhat reluctantly, with Indy. But just barely.
COLTS BY 2
Well quite a weekend! 2-2
Oh my oh my. I have to severely disagree with RJ.
St Louis V Chicago:
At this point in the season you need a well-rounded team. St Louis has a well rounded team. Chicago has a defence that is usually awesome... but offensively... it's sad. Grossman is still a wildcard. But St. Louis has a dynamite offence and I think they'll slice through Chicago's defence without too much trouble.
NE V Indy:
I agree with RJ about the outcome of this game. Indy should pulverize NE. However, I disagree that whoever wins this game will win the Super Bowl. New England may not be pushovers, but they have a lot of holes... and Indy proved themselves quite mortal at the end of the regular season. Something that New Orleans has NOT yet proved. But that is another conversation for another week. The important thing is that Indy will take the W.
haha. yeah. It's my prediction that the Saints will be moving to St. Louis next year.
*shoots self in foot*
New Orleans at Chicago - 3:00 pm - FOX
The Seahawks played Da'Bears close and they
are a bad road team. Chicago's D is not as
strong as it was ealier this season and
the O is what it is.
Saints by 3
New England at Indianapolis - 6:30 pm - CBS
Both quarterbacks are turning the ball over.
NE 3 and IND 2 last week. Indy's D has done
well but against offenses that are not so
great. The pats will find ways to score and
frustrate Manning again.
Patriots by 3
ESPN's NFL "experts" -
Theismann 0-1
Salisbury 0-1
Hoge 0-1
Jaworski 0-1
Schlereth 0-1
Allen 0-1
Mortensen 0-1
Golic 0-1
Accuscore 1-0
ESPN's NFL "experts" -
Theismann 0-2
Salisbury 1-1
Hoge 1-1
Jaworski 1-1
Schlereth 1-1
Allen 0-2
Mortensen 1-1
Golic 1-1
Accuscore 1-1
Through ten playoff games (and with only the Super Bowl to go), I'm 6-4.
Here is where ESPN's NFL "experts" are at:
Theismann 4-6
Salisbury 6-4
Hoge 8-2
Jaworski 6-4
Schlereth 7-3
Allen 4-6
Mortensen 5-5
Golic 7-3
Accuscore 6-4
RJ is the Man.
RJ'S SUPER BOWL PICK
Peyton Manning has finally proven his playoff mettle. It won't be close.
COLTS 38, BEARS 16
Anyone else want to offer their Super Bowl predictions?
For the playoffs, I went 7-4. Here is how the NFL "experts" from ESPN did:
Theismann 5-6
Salisbury 7-4
Hoge 9-2
Jaworski 7-4
Schlereth 8-3
Allen 4-7
Mortensen 6-5
Golic 8-3
Accuscore 7-4
You got a pretty short memory...
"Saturday, Jan. 13
Indianapolis (13-4) at Baltimore (13-3) - 4:30 - CBS
The Ravens defense should be able to shut down the Colts offense. Also, Indy is a poor road team.
BALTIMORE BY 9"
- RJ Elliott, #47
And you're pretty shitty at reading comprehension, Curt. Where did I write that I picked every game correctly?
You mean you don't feel bad that you incorrectly predicted the winner of an AFC divisional playoff game that occurred weeks ago? Have you no heart?
I am, clearly, a monster. I must be punished. :-/
Add your comment, speak your mind
(Or ping: http://blogcritics.org/mt/tb/57629)
Final Score:
Giants 34, Redskins 28 - RJ 0-1