NFL Picks of a Thoughtful Fool, Week 10
Published November 09, 2006
But when the game's on the line, you gotta go with Brady.
Fast forward. I wrote the above prior to last Sunday night's Patriots-Colts game. The only thing I would change about it now is to remove the final qualifier.
Another way to look at Brady v. Manning is to ask this question: Is there any validity to the argument that somebody "just wins"? Well, I picked the Pats last week in both the spread and the money line, so Brady sure as hell didn't "just win" for me.
You know who else "just wins"? Kyle Orton. Remember last year when Kyle Orton used the magical power of his neck beard to get Chicago into the playoffs. The argument in favor of Kyle Orton over Rex Grossman was that, despite his abysmal performances, he "just won games." You see where I'm going with this? "Just wins" is a steaming pile of crap.
The worse thing about the school of "just wins" is that it discounts the fact that football is probably the most team oriented game on the planet. Has Peyton ever had a defense that was comparable to what Brady has had in the last few years? Brady has three rings and Peyton has none because of his teammates and the coach's game plans and being on right side of probability now and then, not because he has any special skill advantage over Peyton.
Yet another way to look at it: switch teams. If you put Manning on the Patriots are they a better team? What if you put Brady on the Colts? If you answered that very quickly, you are deluding yourself.
Anyway, the Colts are now on top. They've beaten the Broncos and Pats at home to remain undefeated. They still have three top ten defenses left to face this year (Philly, Dallas, Jacksonville) and their defense is still suspect, so it's way too soon the crown their asses (pace Dennis Green), but for now, after his masterful performance in the last two games, I am a Peyton fan. That makes me a minority of one here in Wolverine country.
If you don't hear from me next week, Tinkerbell will know where my body is buried.
Results
You know how I took note of the fact that I had picked a disproportionate number of favorites last week? Naturally, it turned into the week of the upset. Spread picks were a horrendous 1-4, making me an abysmal 3-7 for the season. So for an $1100 dollar layout we would be slouched over a barstool with $630 left, making for a loss of $470. This is turning out to be my worst year ever.
- NFL Picks of a Thoughtful Fool, Week 10
- Published: November 09, 2006
- Type: News
- Section: Sports
- Filed Under: Sports: Football (American)
- Part of a feature: NFL Picks of a Thoughtful Fool
- Writer: David Mazzotta
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- David Mazzotta's personal site
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Comments on this articleComments
That's possible, Suss. We live in an odd world where we want our idols to be flawed, but only appropriately so.
He may very go on to "own every QB record" ever, but he will also still take his man-boobs and estrogen-induced tears and whine, whine, whine about choking during the big games because that's what people who only eat corn do.
Not touching the Detroit-San Fran matchup, huh? :-/
The Lions have good games as often as Mike Vick has good passing days -- just often enough to keep the loyal few strung along.
That -6 spread seems to be just right, which means it really isn't a gambling opportunity.
But at least you aren't certain to start this week at minus 1. ;-)
As for myself, I was pretty awful...I didn't outperform a single ESPN "expert" with my disappointing 8-8 week...
Spread picks were 5-2 (Huzzah!) bringing me to one game under .500 for the year.
3-3 on the money line, but with a profit of just shy of $300 thanks to the Browns and the Pack.
It's been an strange season (which happens to be the topic of this weeks column).
Regarding Pay-me-a-ton Manning and being a "team" player... In the cap era, a big QB's salary counts directly against what his team can afford to pay his defense. By the time Indy finishes signing the checks for Manning and his highly-paid receivers, it's no wonder what's left can't pay for enough quality defenders to stop a human pinball like Maurice Jones-Drew. Pardon me if I prefer rooting for a complete team, and the men who compromise on their own personal paychecks to keep it that way. (Though I will say Adam Vinatieri is one Colt worth every dime).
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David, I'll tell you what I told myself: