ah yea....the total ban approaches.

Suss-
Great Article, I totally agree. I thought Simmons' wasted his time writing a comparison about LARRY "EFFING" LEGEND and Big Papi. At DH, Papi plays half the game in a juiced era (baseballs, players) in those little sandboxes they call stadiums. It's hard to argue he's a great hitter, but like you said, he has a great lineup built around him. As for the Bird comparisons, Bird was the best player of his era when the NBA was at its best. Bird is a once in a lifetime athlete. I don't think Big Papi is even close to that stratosphere.

Well written but the pure stats aren't what matter. It's not how many times you hit with runners in scoring position or even how many actual homeruns or RBI's you have.

What counts is the score of the game BEFORE you step up to the plate.

With one exception this year, and I'm a rabbid Red Sox fan, FYI, Alex Rodriguez is by no means whatsoever a clutch hitter. He'll bat .330 with 40 homeruns and 100 RBI's but so often he's hitting those home runs when the score is already 10-2 either way.

Ortiz is clutch because he wins games. I would love to see a stat of batting average with the game on the line/go ahead run on base--that would be a measure of clutch-ness to me.

Excellent points made here, though I would like to see some more specific stats for end-of-the-game when score is within 3 runs before judging on total clutchness. The thing is, in any city outside of Boston or New York, Ortiz would just be a very good slugger, not baseball-Jesus.

Since the end of the 2004 regular season, Ortiz has come to the plate in a walk-off situations 19 times.

He has reached base 15 times.

He is 11-for-14 (.786), with 7 HR and 20 RBI.

In 2005 and 2006, he is 8-for-9, with 5 HR and 15 RBI.

(pasted from sosh)

no argument on the nature of clutch hitting, but you're missing a huge factor in what drives the public perception of ortiz' deadliness.

since the beginning of 2004, ortiz is a ridiculous 11 for 14 (.786) with 7HR and 20 RBI in potential walk-off situations, reaching base 5 other times via base on balls. *that's* what pays the bills at espn, and *that's* where papi truly has been spectacular - small sample size notwithstanding.

he may be able to hit in the clutch but can big papi "slide one on the button" when all the chips are down?

As I'm reading this, Ortiz just hit his 2nd home run of the night in the top of the 8th, to put the Red Sox up 3-2. Of course it's only the 8th inning.

Like you said, Papi has been up to the plate now with a chance to end a baseball game a total of 52 times. He ended the game 15 times. (28%).

Consider that clutch hitter Thurman Munson came to the plate in such situations a total of 104 times. He ended the game 6 times (6%)

Others: Pujols 9-61 (15%), Arod 7-94 (7%), Lance Berkman 0-48.

This IS the smoking gun. No way can ANYBODY argue against Papi being the deadliest hitter of the past 50 years.

I'm watching the game the other night, I see that Papi is on deck and the situation and I (as well as most of the people watching) knew what was coming. As a BASEBALL FAN you have to sit back and say "wow, this is bordeline supernatural. and I may never see anything like this guy again in my lifetime."

Hey Man,

I just saw that Deadspin picked up this article.

Congrats!!!

Like you said, Papi has been up to the plate now with a chance to end a baseball game a total of 52 times. He ended the game 15 times. (28%).

Consider that clutch hitter Thurman Munson came to the plate in such situations a total of 104 times. He ended the game 6 times (6%)

Others: Pujols 9-61 (15%), Arod 7-94 (7%), Lance Berkman 0-48.

This IS the smoking gun. No way can ANYBODY argue against Papi being the deadliest hitter of the past 50 years.

I'm watching the game the other night, I see that Papi is on deck and the situation and I (as well as most of the people watching) knew what was coming. As a BASEBALL FAN you have to sit back and say "wow, this is bordeline supernatural. and I may never see anything like this guy again in my lifetime."

Papi hit the game winning homer again tonight. Albeit wasn't in the top of the 9th but he did it once again. Stats aside, I think Papi gets a lot of press because he's such a nice, easy going guy in this age of tense, rude athletes.

I should say I'm a card carrying member of Red Sox nation. Oops, Do people actually admit that?

I think the article is missing what people define as clutch. Clutch isn't just merely hitting with RISP and 2 outs...that may be a very loose way to approach it.

But I think the main press surrounding Papi is that he is doing it in late innings of close games, and not just the 9th or extra innings. (example mentioned...last nights game in TB) Hitting HRs to take the lead or tie it late in the game is a lot different than getting an RBI single in the 1st inning with 2 outs. I think most everyone views the former as a much more pressurized situation.

Sussman chooses his statistics wisely to support his view -- he decided on "At bats with RISP & 2 outs"

1. His category shows no regard for late inning situations vs. a top of the first instance.

2. One of Papi's recent walk offs came with no outs, another with one. Not included in Sussman's stats but they still led each half-hour of ESPN News. (Yes, I understand that's part of his supposed point -- the whole media bias).

3. Just an example: Yesterday in the 10th, The D-rays opted to intentionally walk Papi with first base open and a runner on 2b in order to get to Manny, who flied out. D-rays knocked the game winner in the bottom half. {FYI - ESPN's take was "a little of his own medicine" and NOT "manny's a failure"}.

4. Two lines from Sussman speak volumes: "hardcore sabermetricians believe "clutch hitting" is an illusion, and such an ability doesn't exist." and "Clutch hitting is not built on statistics, it's built on memories."

By cutting these word for word out of his Article, it's hard to believe he missed this point, because it's the ENTIRE point. Sabermetricians cannot believe in clutch hitting because it would add a non-numeric element and take away from the numbers-are-all approach. "Clutch hitting" isn't based purely on numbers anyway.

I lived through 78 and 86 and even 2003. My entire life was a memory of "not if, but when will they blow it?" Nowadays the Sox are considered a "clutch" team as a matter of course. Who cares whether the numbers bear that out (though it sure seems they do if you use the "right" numbers)?

I'm not sure whether to regard clutch hitting as an illusion or as just really, really vague. I mean, hitting with RISP seems like a fair place to start, but as many people have pointed out, the number of outs, the inning, the possibility of going ahead, the possibility of ending the game, and whether the at-bat happens in a regular-season or post-season game all seem relevant. Several people have pointed out Ortiz's incredible numbers when a hit might end the game. But do we really want to understand clutch hitting so narrowly? I mean, what about games where a hit puts a team up in the seventh or eighth and that team goes on to win? How much is that worth compared with a walk-off hit? Or is it just impossible to be clutch on the road? It seems to me that we make a mistake by not precisifying what we want to measure *before* looking for the right numbers.

"With one exception this year...Alex Rodriguez is by no means whatsoever a clutch hitter."

What a load of crap.

"He'll bat .330 with 40 homeruns and 100 RBI's but so often he's hitting those home runs when the score is already 10-2 either way."

And yet, even in his worst season in years, A-Rod is 2nd in the league in game-winning RBIs.

"I'm a rabbid (sic) Red Sox fan"

No kidding.



"This IS the smoking gun. No way can ANYBODY argue against Papi being the deadliest hitter of the past 50 years."

You've gotta be kidding me.

You sound like a biased Yankee fan talking about A-Rod like that...I like Ortiz's attitude better that that cry baby A-Rod anyway....Ortiz is one the great clutch hitters is recent history and one of the reasons why A-Rod got MVP over Ortiz even though you could deny his stats in 2004 is because he is a yankee and we all know that the media sucks the N.Y. Yankee's bleep!

I meant to say you couldn't deny A-Rod's stats.......holla back

"Ortiz's game-winning shot came off Fausto Carmona, a closer thrust into the position because Cleveland traded away Bob Wickman. At the time Carmona had as many career major league saves as me, and currently is 0-for-2 in save situations. Going into a hostile environment like Fenway Park on a Monday night and getting into a jam, I'm pretty sure Carmona would have given up a game-winning homerun to everyone from David Ortiz to David Wells."

Only a pencil-neck wannabe would question the quality of competition in major league baseball. Carmona is a pitcher in the big leagues, OK nit? Sheesh...next you'll be going back and disecting the talents of every pitcher who ever gave up a home run to Babe Ruth, or critiquing the abilities of every hitter who ever struckout against Walter Johnson...