Today's Mexican Vote Will Affect America
Published July 02, 2006
It is election day in Mexico. Democracy is relatively new here, and the vote can be expected to be heavy because there is growing faith that elections will be fairly counted. It is only the past two administrations of Ernesto Zedillo and Vincente Fox that have been called "democratic."
It is also a close and exciting race — especially between Felipe Calderon of P.A.N., the more conservative and business-oriented candidate of the (now) ruling party, and Lopez Obrador of P.R.D. who is seen as a champion of the poor who will bring relief to the low-income masses.
According to Canal Once -- Channel 11, the TV network of the Polytechnic Institute in Mexico City which is the Public TV station of the country. Ortega Cuevas, head of public security for the Federal District, was quoted as declaring that the start of the elections was calm and showed a high turnout. At 10 a.m., 65% of voting places had opened and the rest would follow shortly.
He also assured the country that in each of the 12,194 voting places there were representatives of federal and city election officials and a "police presence".
President Vincente Fox declared from his voting place that there is no Mexican who is against democracy, and no Mexican who wants to reject their ability to choose their own government. The people of Mexico know that they will consolidate and strengthen democracy as they exercise their right and obligation to vote — congratulations to all Mexico.
Fox went on to promise that he would be watching the results of the vote from early until the end from Los Piños, the Mexican White House.
The results remain to be seen. Either way the vote goes, America will find itself affected. It is time to remember that North America is one continent, and Mexico is part of it.
Mexico will be tied to the US by trade and tourism no matter what happens, short of a violent break which is most unlikely. The US is tied to Mexico by a long border, trade needs, banking relationships, and personal relationships. The number of ballots returned from Mexicans abroad (mostly in the U.S.) attests to the inter-relationship of the nations.
By late afternoon there had been reports of incidents in a number of voting places and some disquietude but, here on the southern frontier of the country, it is quiet and there seems to have been a large turnout of voters.
As political scientists have written for decades in the United States, the "soft underbelly" of the democratic system is the voters who do not vote, the section of the population who do not choose to exercise their right nor to enter into the political process. Mexico, in its newness to democracy and hopes for the future, may be entering into a time of shared decision-making. The results will be seen tonight and in the months and years (a Mexican president has one five-year term) to come.
- Today's Mexican Vote Will Affect America
- Published: July 02, 2006
- Type: News
- Section: Politics
- Filed Under: Politics: Elections and Candidates, Politics: Government, Politics: International
- Writer: Howard Dratch
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Today, Monday, in Mexico the presidential race remains undecided and IFE, the election institute, is still determining the winner. According to Reuters Felipe Calderon, the PAN candidate who is considered the "conservative" has claimed a tight win in the election.
"There is an irreversible result and it is in my favor," Calderon said in a television interview, looking confident. "The result give me a very clear victory that cannot be reversed."
Manuel Lopez Obrador, the "leftist" former president of the Federal District who was feared would use his supporters to create a political crisis, said instead:
As a result the value of the peso jumped 1.45% from a low point as the markets became less jittery about the Mexican situation.
The most current results are:
"CALDERON 36.55 pct
LOPEZ OBRADOR 35.46 pct
MADRAZO 21.28 pct"
according to Reuters table of "Presidential Election Returns" from 9 AM Monday.
Why would the hordes of the poor vote for a conservative of the party that, so far, has done nothing for them? It looks to me like the PAN are pulling a GOP & stealing the election.
Howard,
Does Mandrazo represent the the PRI?
Oh, well, I guess Mandrazo does represent the PRI. Looks like they aree in for a bit of an eclipse until they shed some weight..
First I must preface this with the fact that foreign, legal residents in Mexico are forbidden from commenting on internal politics. Therefore, I have been very careful to make no value judgements; just reportage.
That is not to say that there are not interesting things to discuss and debate but these are amazingly quiet times with tensions just beneath the surface.
I am also of two minds about the election and the parties. My youthful rebeliousness says one thing and my disabled, pensioned need for stability says another. Check it out from the source, Nancy, blogs and international papers, Canal Once and others. It was a fascinating race. Always bear in mind that Mexico is NOT the US with a Spanish accent. Their culture, politics, history and needs are totally different. Mexico is itself, unique and complex and must be studied that way. Alan Riding's book advertised above is dated now (PRI is not the ruling party) but it is a great read. I have been through it twice.
Ruvy. Madrazo was, for the second time, the PRI candidate. PRI ruled for over 70 years. He was a distant third. My wife thinks it is because he died his hair to look younger in a very masculine country. Or PRI has lost some of its national base (state results are very different). I will quote the results from the Cancun-based newspaper, Por Esto.
The paper today, Monday, reported that PAN received 37.08% of the vote, PRD/PT 36.11%, PRI 20.9%, and Nueva Alianza 0.98%. The vote count was 11,882,299 for PAN (Calderon) and 11,571,503 for PRD/PT (Obrador).
Howard,
The presidential single term in México is six years--that's why it's called a "sexenio" in Spanish.
Nancy,
Though the PRI has not had a president in office since 2000, when Ernesto Zedillo was replaced by the now outgoing Vicente Fox, they (the PRI) totally dominated and held a presidential monopoly in Mexican politics from the Revolution in 1913 until 2000. Still today, most government officials are PRI members or patronage recipients; thus it would be nearly impossible for one of the other parties to steal an election.
Clavos. Gracias. I kept thinking all day I had done something dumb such as writing that the President had a 5 year term. I meant to go back and rectify the error and then never did. Maybe we could have George Bush serve only 3 years under this system. That would be fair.
A sus ordenes, Howard.
I think a one term presidency in the USA is definitely something that should be given consideration, though I don't think it has much support.
Today, the 4th of July in the US, Calderon continues to appear the winner according to The Big News Network which reports on Latin America.
In a report, "Calderon up 1 point in Mexican balloting" from The Big News Network it was reported
With 98 percent of polling stations reporting, Calderon led leftist Lopez Obrador by 402,000 votes, or about 1 percentage point, the Los Angeles Times reported. Obrador would need to win three-quarters of the remaining 800,000 uncounted ballots to surpass his rival. By percentage, Calderon was leading 36 percent to Obrador's 35 percent.
Other reports mention that Obrador will call for an official recount.
Señor Howard,
According to Fox News, AMLO has officially asked for a recount.
Kind of exciting, after all those years of the PRI winning every election uncontested.
The latest news is that Calderon has won the election. Looks as if the Leftist rag-tag brigade from South America has just flown off the track (and good riddance to it).
You are right about the latest news of Calderon winning the election. Is that good or bad? For us? For Mexico?
This is an old culture with traditions far older than the US and the English common law. Democracy is new needs tinkering and experimenting.
Today I spoke with a young, middle-class (not ruling class), educated man -- a government functionary. He was happy with the win, perhaps triumphant. The PAN President may win him stability and power in what had been a two-class culture. I also talked with our house- and body-guard who was a paratrooper for 7 years in the Mexican military. He is a worker, ambitious and bright, with high hopes for his sons for whom he is planning university education. He will find a way to give them education, freedom and ambition, too. He is a firm supporter of Manuel Lopez Obrador and echoed the fear of the newly enfranchised population -- that Obrador was somehow robbed of his win.
It was, no question, a close race. That doesn't mean a winner and a loser. It means a winner and a coalition party (P.T./P.R.D.) that has just tasted power.
It is the next 6 years that are now in the air. Who will gain power and who will be co-opted, recruited and accepted. What surprises will 2012 bring?
Whatever, these people were workers, indigenous, disenfranchised -- they were really not a "Leftist rag-tag brigade from South America" (Mexico is in North America, by the way). They were a new force and the next years will be a test for a newly-hatched democratic tradition.
Has Obrador conceded? I had read this morning that he vowed to contest any decision in favor of Calderon as election fraud?
Add your comment, speak your mind
(Or ping: http://blogcritics.org/mt/tb/49906)
As of 1 AM here in Mexico the news is vacillating from saying it is impossible to decide who won, Lopez Obrador is the winner by 500,000 votes or, as President Vincente Fox Quesada said (the last announcement on Canal Once),
El presidente Vicente Fox Quesada llamó esta noche a los actores políticos que participaron en la jornada electoral a apegarse a la legalidad y respetar los tiempos que requiere el IFE para anunciar los resultados de los comicios."Pres. Fox called tonight for all the political participants to follow the laws and respect the time the Federal Election Institute needs to announce the results of the vote count"
Exciting race. We shall see what Monday brings.