Carter's message is that projects need a champion at the network in order to get on the air, even if it's not the top executive. But the odds are still stacked against everyone - creators, producers, studios, networks - when no one can detect in advance what later seems like a sure thing. "They go into huge deficits to fund shows, and only if they are hits do you make any money," he said. "So studios have to invest in failure in order to succeed."

Touchstone Television executive Howard Davine also touched on some of Carter's tales of network bungling. Davine admitted that while rival studio Warner Brothers' decision to walk away from Desperate Housewives over a dispute of $30,000 was obviously wrong in retrospect, his own studio's rejection of CSI was probably worse. With Lost, Touchstone did take a huge gamble in financing the $12 million pilot episode, but Davine said the challenge is "how do you be fiscally responsible and not miss out on a Lost or Desperate Housewives?"

"Nobody Knows Anything"

A running theme in the industry seems to be the futility of recognizing what's going to be a Lost or Desperate Housewives or House or Prison Break.

NBC passed on Paul Haggis's The Black Donnellys 10 years ago, but a post-Sopranos, post-Paul-Haggis-is-now-famous world has them finally giving it a shot at success. Even with its criminal underworld subject and impressive pedigree, which includes co-writer Bobby Moresco of Crash, is it a sure thing? Haggis himself claimed that given his track record with quality television projects, it will likely "fail brilliantly."

But then, nobody knows anything in Hollywood, not even a two-time Oscar winner.