Are Democrats About To Lose A "Safe" Senate Seat?
Published June 14, 2006
As Election Day draws closer, political campaigns are heating up across the country. And one of the hottest races is the Democrat Primary battle in Connecticut.
Incumbent Senator Joe Lieberman, first elected to the Senate in 1988, is running for a fourth term. And he is a shoo-in to win reelection against any candidate the GOP puts up against him. But he needs to win the Democrat Party's nomination first.
Lieberman's opponent in the August 8th Primary is a multi-millionaire leftist named Ned Lamont, who is partially self-financing his campaign.
At first, Lamont got little attention from the media, and therefore registered only scant support in the public opinion polls. However, his relentless attacks on Lieberman's unwavering support for the war in Iraq has boosted his public profile, and now his support among liberal Democrat voters in Connecticut is growing quickly. Lieberman was out-polling Lamont by nearly 50 points just a month ago, but now his lead has been trimmed to 25 points.
This surge against the incumbent has put such a scare into the Lieberman campaign that there is now serious talk about the incumbent Democrat seeking to gather enough signatures to get on the ballot as an Independent, as a fall-back position should he fail to secure his party's nomination.
Because of these developments, I can easily see the following scenario playing out:
- Lieberman's support among Connecticut Democrats continues to plummet, while Lamont's continues to grow
- Lieberman is then forced to openly solicit signatures for an Independent slot on the ballot
- This enrages Democrats nationwide, who are already questioning Lieberman's allegiance to his party due to his support for the war in Iraq and some other Bush policies
- Lamont wins the Democrat Primary in August; Lieberman is humiliated at being forced to run as an Independent
- The leftist "netroots" are able to attract hundreds of thousands of dollars in donations to Lamont's campaign
- Various Hollywood kooks publicly offer their support to Lamont
- Some Democrats in Congress even go so far as to openly support Lamont over Lieberman
- Election Day arrives, and Lieberman (who has universal name-recognition and is generally popular in his state) wins in an absolute landslide, by at least 20 points over Lamont, with the Republican barely getting double-figures
- Lieberman, newly minted as an Independent Senator and still angry about his rough treatment by fellow Dems, decides to "pull a Jim Jeffords" and aligns himself with the Senate Republicans
- Leftists go completely berserk
It is worth pointing out that 33 Senate seats are up for grabs in November. The GOP currently controls the Senate 55-44-1 (with the Independent Jeffords siding with the Democrats, so it is basically 55-45). Democrats have a solid shot at picking up a few seats in the upcoming election, but they would need a net-gain of six seats in order to take control (because a 50-50 Senate would still technically be in Republican hands, since Vice President Cheney gets to cast any tie-breaking vote).
Can the Democrats pick up six Senate seats? It's unlikely, though possible. But if the scenario I just outlined above plays out, they would need to pick up seven seats instead, which just ain't gonna happen.
Leftist Democrats are often their own worst enemy...
RJ Elliott is a graduate student at the University Of Central Florida. His passions in life are sports, politics, nature, and women who have piercings they never told their daddy about. He dislikes daytime television, left-wing dictators, and people who talk like Garrison Keillor. He is ambivalent about the names "Trig" and "Piper."
- Are Democrats About To Lose A "Safe" Senate Seat?
- Published: June 14, 2006
- Type: News
- Section: Politics
- Filed Under: Politics: Elections and Candidates, Politics: Government, Politics: Local and Regional, Politics: U.S.
- Writer: RJ Elliott
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Comments on this articleComments
For the obvious reasons - his opposition to free speech and support of censorship, his strong support of the war on drugs, his enthusiasm for the patriot act, and his generally pro-state and anti-individual policies.
The only thing Lieberman has ever done that I liked was to back Bush on social security privatization.
Dave
Problem is Rahm Emanuel backed Tammy Duckworth over a more progressive candidate to try to take over Henry Hyde's seat.
And don't count on Lieberman winning if he runs as an independent. Or caucusing with Republicans if he does happen to win.
Steve:
I'll admit that the scenario outlined above was purely hypothetical. But it seems plausible, given the facts...
Schumer seems to be doing an expert job of playing this both ways. He's supporting Joe just enough that if Lieberman wins in the end it'll be "hey sorry about the crazies in your state, we always loved you." If Lieberman really tanks and Lamont wins then Schumer stops returning his phone calls and Reid gets to look tough on dissenters by stripping Joe of his committee seats when he goes independant.
Any way you slice it Joe sees himself as a Democrat, there is really no reason to switch caucuses. Jeffords felt completely opposed to the actions of his caucus, Lieberman is one of the more powerful Senators in the party. He'd lose all that by switching. More likely he'll follow McCain's route and just buck party line stuff more openly. Considering he's already a regular on Hannity it won't be hard to do.
UPDATE:
Latest polling data here:
Senator Joe Lieberman (D) might be better off skipping the Democratic Primary and running as an Independent this November. The latest Rasmussen Reports survey of the Primary Election shows Lieberman leading challenger Ned Lamont by just six percentage points, 46% to 40%. The survey was conducted Monday night, June 12.
"Any way you slice it Joe sees himself as a Democrat, there is really no reason to switch caucuses."
Not now, no. But what about a few months from now, when his own party is attacking him, and he is forced to run as an Independent?
Sean Hannity is in love with Lieberman, and so is John McCain. I can easily see Lieberman siding with the GOP if he is forced to win re-election as an Independent...
How about...McCain-Lieberman in 2008? Stranger things have happened...
From the Hartford Courant:
[I]f Lieberman quits the primary and bases his campaign on an appeal to Republicans, unaffiliated voters and conservative Democrats, he suddenly will have to argue that Lamont really is allied with a far-left minority within the Democratic Party.
"The message shifts overnight, and that's the hard part," said George Jepsen, a former Democratic state chairman and state Senate majority leader.
Or, as Lamont's campaign manager, Tom Swan, said: "Is Ned a Republican, or a `left-wing weirdo?'"
Although theoretically Lieberman could withdraw on the eve of the primary, analysts in both parties say that to embark on a successful petition candidacy, he'd need to commit no later than the middle of next month.
RJ, that last link is no good. Reuters seems to have pulled the story. If true it's a major, major political breakthrough and someone - you - needs to write it up in detail for BC.
Dave
You're right Dave, when I googled it many were "Page can not be found" however from associated press...
Lieberman Weighing Run As Independent
Jun 14 2:00 PM US/Eastern
By SUSAN HAIGH
Associated Press Writer
HARTFORD, Conn.
Democratic Sen. Joe Lieberman, warily watching his primary challenger advance in the polls, must soon decide whether to start collecting signatures for a possible independent bid this November.
Lieberman's campaign contends that it's focused only on winning the Aug. 8 primary, but the Democrat has not ruled out petitioning his way onto the November ballot as part of a backup plan to secure a fourth term in the Senate.
"I am not going to close out any options," the senator recently told reporters.
Lieberman has until Aug. 9 _ the day after the Democratic primary _ to collect 7,500 signatures from registered voters to gain a spot on the ballot as an unaffiliated candidate.
But any effort to gather signatures before the primary would be a sign of weakness, indicating that Lieberman, the Democratic vice presidential nominee in 2000, fears that he could lose to businessman Ned Lamont. The effort also would rile Democrats who already question Lieberman's party loyalty and his perceived closeness to President Bush.
The senator has been a strong backer of the Iraq war.
Christopher Kukk, an associate political science professor at Western Connecticut State University, said it's a risk Lieberman may be willing to take as Lamont continues to make gains in the polls.
"I think he'll alienate Democratic voters, but to be honest with you, I think he already has alienated Democratic voters," Kukk said. "If Lamont is gaining ... I think you'll see Lieberman jump."
According to a recent Quinnipiac University Poll, 57 percent of registered Democrats in Connecticut said they would vote for Lieberman, compared to 32 percent for Lamont. A month ago, Lieberman drew 65 percent to Lamont's 19 percent.
The poll found that if Lieberman runs as an independent, he would win with 56 percent of the vote, compared to 18 percent for Lamont and 8 percent for Republican Alan Schlesinger. Lieberman enjoys higher ratings among Republicans and unaffiliated voters than Democrats, the poll found. Unaffiliated voters are the state's largest bloc of voters, followed by Democrats and then Republicans.
Lamont, a multimillionaire owner of a cable television company, launched an ad campaign this week asking for Lieberman's support should he win the primary, and promising to back Lieberman should the senator prevail.
"What do you say, Senator?" Lamont asks in the radio ad. "May the best Democrat win."
Lamont's campaign manager, Tom Swan, said Democrats want to know what Lieberman will do.
"If Joe Lieberman is considering abandoning the Democratic Party, the people have a right to know it," Swan said. "Ned is agreeing to abide by the process and respect the choice of the people. Will Joe?"
No matter what Lieberman does, Kukk said he believes the veteran senator will win re-election. Lieberman still enjoys a strong lead over Lamont, and Kukk said if Lieberman runs as an unaffiliated candidate, it likely won't hurt him with the general electorate because party loyalty isn't very strong anymore.
"I think they are thinking of it," Kukk said of a possible Lieberman independent run. "If you're looking for your political survival, you'd be silly not to."
Weighing a run is not the same as 'going to run as an independent'. I'm looking forward to writing about an independent Lieberman candidacy myself, but it looks like he's not going to commit until after the primary which is a full month off.
Dave
Very strange, the first time I clicked it it didn't work, second time to be sure it did, that just now it didn't again.
Hmmmmmmm
Gremlins?
This post has a ten-point prediction on what will happen over the next few months in Connecticut.
Point 1 - "Lieberman's support among Connecticut Democrats continues to plummet, while Lamont's continues to grow" has already occurred
Point 2 - "Lieberman is then forced to openly solicit signatures for an Independent slot on the ballot" has now happened as well
Point 3 - "This enrages Democrats nationwide, who are already questioning Lieberman's allegiance to his party due to his support for the war in Iraq and some other Bush policies" well, just watch the news over the next couple weeks...
JR,
Nice job with the analysis. There seems to be only one point you may have overlooked. Lieberman as an Independent can cut a deal with the Democrats for decent committee assignments. As a Republican, he is at the bottom of their totem pol(e)...
Ruvy,
After November, when Lieberman wins re-election as an Independent candidate, and has spent the last few months being attacked by fellow Democrats, and the GOP retains control of the Senate...well, I feel the Republicans might be likely to offer some sort of Chairmanship of an important committee, while all the Democrats can offer is apologies...
Here is the ten-point scenario I predicted back in mid-June:
1 - Lieberman's support among Connecticut Democrats continues to plummet, while Lamont's continues to grow
2 - Lieberman is then forced to openly solicit signatures for an Independent slot on the ballot
3 - This enrages Democrats nationwide, who are already questioning Lieberman's allegiance to his party due to his support for the war in Iraq and some other Bush policies
4 - Lamont wins the Democrat Primary in August; Lieberman is humiliated at being forced to run as an Independent
5 - The leftist "netroots" are able to attract hundreds of thousands of dollars in donations to Lamont's campaign
6 - Various Hollywood kooks publicly offer their support to Lamont
7 - Some Democrats in Congress even go so far as to openly support Lamont over Lieberman
8 - Election Day arrives, and Lieberman (who has universal name-recognition and is generally popular in his state) wins in an absolute landslide, by at least 20 points over Lamont, with the Republican barely getting double-figures
9 - Lieberman, newly minted as an Independent Senator and still angry about his rough treatment by fellow Dems, decides to "pull a Jim Jeffords" and aligns himself with the Senate Republicans
10 - Leftists go completely berserk
1, 2, 3, 5, and 6 have already happened. If 4 happens (seems pretty likely), then 7 has already happened as well, since numerous elected Democrats have pledged to support "The Democrat Nominee," even if that ain't Lieberman. Also, if 4 happens, then 8 is pretty much a given, and so is 10.
The only real question left is 9...
Lieberman now down by 10....
If only the Lieberman scenario were happening in multiple elections around the country - then we might see this moribund party system start to break down.
Dave
Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton to campaign against Lieberman...
Paul Newman supports Lamont!
Lieberman has fallen prey to the usual Congressional rot: he's gotten too far away from those who elected him, and forgotten who they are, what they want, and how they feel about things; now they're going to make him pay for it, if only by making him sweat a little, but most likely by throwing him out for First Congressional Principles: you are there for those who sent you; NOT the president, NOT any of your Hill cronys, and NOT for your own images of historic posterity.
Today's elections will certainly tell, won't they? I think if Lamont wins, it should send a sharp message to all those who've gotten off track & forgotten their humble local roots, as well as the GOP, because it will certainly be one indicator of backlash against Bush & his policies, and/or anybody who supports them, of either party.
- Lieberman's support among Connecticut Democrats continues to plummet, while Lamont's continues to grow
Check.
- Lieberman is then forced to openly solicit signatures for an Independent slot on the ballot
Check.
- This enrages Democrats nationwide, who are already questioning Lieberman's allegiance to his party due to his support for the war in Iraq and some other Bush policies
Check.
- Lamont wins the Democrat Primary in August; Lieberman is humiliated at being forced to run as an Independent
Check.
- The leftist "netroots" are able to attract hundreds of thousands of dollars in donations to Lamont's campaign
Check.
- Various Hollywood kooks publicly offer their support to Lamont
Check.
- Some Democrats in Congress even go so far as to openly support Lamont over Lieberman
Check.
- Election Day arrives, and Lieberman (who has universal name-recognition and is generally popular in his state) wins in an absolute landslide, by at least 20 points over Lamont, with the Republican barely getting double-figures
Pending...
- Lieberman, newly minted as an Independent Senator and still angry about his rough treatment by fellow Dems, decides to "pull a Jim Jeffords" and aligns himself with the Senate Republicans
Pending...
- Leftists go completely berserk
A given. ;-)
hey RJ..i just submitted an Article on the news about Lieberman..and i give this Post the props it deserves
we will see how it all plays out in November...
but the "concession speech" from Lieberman made me puke a little in my mouth
nice job on this Article, i'll bet ya a doughnut Lamont wins in the end
Excelsior?
So Lieberman loses because he doesn't toe the party line.
We need 99 more like him.
nah Clavos..Lieberman didn't lose because he failed to toe the Party line...
he lost because the Dem primary voters decided that he didn't represent them adequately, and thought Lamont would
big difference, eh?
Excelsior?
Lieberman lost because he forgot that the people are his bosses, and not his servants. 18 years in a position of smug overprivilege, not to mention the ego-expanding experience of being tapped as VP material, even in a failed presidential run, gave him a sense of permanence & disassociation with reality and the rank & file who sent him there. THAT is what did him in: the people, God bless them ... NOT the 'party'.
I have this feeling that you think hes......Incumbent i dont know i just call them like i see them
Harry Reid and Chuck Schumer "fully support" Lamont...
Hal Turner enjoys Lieberman's loss:
JEWS LOSE BIG:
THREE-TERM U.S. SENATOR JOE LIEBERMAN OUSTED IN CONNECTICUT PRIMARY ELECTION
THE WHINING HAS ALREADY BEGUN OVER HIS LOSS FOR SUPPORTING THE WARS IN AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ
Jew news stories and opinion columnists are already screaming how unfair and wrong it is to oust Lieberman. One Democrat columnist (jew) in the New York Post even wrote "So now that the wackadoo wing of the party has a bloody scalp, what are they going to do with it? Wave it at Islamic terrorists in Iraq and Lebanon and Afghanistan and Indonesia and Great Britain and Spain and Israel and New York and declare peace?"
Hal Turner answers, "no, they're waving the bloody scalp at JEWS and declaring peace! And that WILL work because all these wars have been driven by neo-con jews who are more interested in protecting Israel than they are doing what's right for the United States."
Well, if it makes racists like Turner happy, how can it be a bad thing?
Dave
James Taranto hints that Democrat attacks on Lieberman might lead him to switch parties after he wins in November...
The GOP is even offering Lieberman help both with funds & endorsements, overtly & secretly. Anything to take the focus off their own issues of corruption, inaction, and a fake war.
Yet another step in the direction I predicted in this post...
You've been predicting "leftists go completely berserk" for years now, and I still haven't seen it. I mean, Bush eked out a close win over Kerry and there was no "street theater". At this point, it looks as though the country has crawled about as far up George Bush's ass as it's going to go; if anything, we're moving back to the left. Unless the Republicans nominate Rick Santorum (and how likely is that?),
what is there for the left to get any more worked up over?
I think your sports-rivalry view of politics clouds your judgement. You seem to think anybody rooting against your team must be some kind of hooligan. Could it be you are projecting your own overly emotional attitude toward politics onto everybody else?
Lieberman might very well back McCain or Giuliani for president, but who cares? Lieberman isn't that important anymore, and neither of those guys are all that offensive to the left. (And Lieberman won't endorse a right-wing wacko or an incompetent - he didn't endorse Bush, did he?).
"Lieberman isn't that important anymore"
Really? What if he decides to support the GOP instead of the Dems? Control of the Senate would change hands. That would be pretty important! And he is hinting at such a potential flip in the article I linked to...
"You've been predicting "leftists go completely berserk" for years now, and I still haven't seen it."
Lieberman hasn't switched parties yet. ;-)
But leftists went berzerk today anyway. Did you catch the speeches of Tim Robbins, Sean Penn, and even Hanoi Jane Fonda?
"PULL!!! OUT!!! NOOOOOOOOOOW!!!"
Heh...
The Democrats still control the House and the Republicans themselves are rebelling against Bush. Not to mention that Bush's approval ratings at an all time low, so Lieberman can't afford to get too close to him politically or he'll risk losing the general election next time.
The left is better off than it was six months ago no matter what Lieberman does. Sorry, I don't think there'll be any rioting.
"Sorry, I don't think there'll be any rioting."
No, not yet.
(Yawn) Let me know when they declare martial law.
Lieberman hasn't switched parties yet.
Neither has Jeffords. Why should they?
"But leftists went berzerk today anyway. Did you catch the speeches of Tim Robbins, Sean Penn, and even Hanoi Jane Fonda?"
"PULL!!! OUT!!! NOOOOOOOOOOW!!!"
- RJ Elliott
Yeah, they're definitely a lot worse than the rightist chickenhawks.
More hints...
Add your comment, speak your mind
(Or ping: http://blogcritics.org/mt/tb/49255)
If Lieberman were a congressman he'd be totally screwed here because the DCCC is run by Rahm Emanuel who is trying to purge their candidate base of anyone even vaguely moderate. As a Senator he's probably in somewhat better shape as far as party backing.
Personally I wouldn't welcome the fascist bastard in the GOP at all.
Dave