It seems the Reds do this every year. Cincinnati starts out hot, then fades down the stretch.

In 2004, the Reds were in first place in June, only to collapse and finish 29 games out of first in the National League Central. This year, the Reds are 36-24 on June 9. The Reds were on the cover of Sports Weekly this past week, and the world is taking notice.

Are the Reds for real?

There is reason to believe the answer is “yes,” with the caveat that it’s June. That seems to be the phrase for Ohio baseball this month, with Reds fans reminding themselves things can fall apart quickly, while up north, Cleveland fans are trying to stay hopeful in the face of obvious mediocrity.

In Cincinnati’s case, the success is due to the starting pitching, an area all but certain to be a weakness before March 21.

That’s when new Reds general manager Wayne Krivsky made the first in a series of brilliant moves, trading hard-hitting outfielder Wily Mo Pena to Boston for Bronson Arroyo.  When Arroyo joined the Reds, he became the ace almost immediately. He’s 8-2 and has a 2.31 earned run average. He’s on pace to win 22 games this season. It’s unlikely he’ll do that, but he has given the Reds innings and wins — something they haven’t had much of in recent seasons.

With Arroyo settled into the ace's spot, Aaron Harang (7-4, 3.72 ERA) and Eric Milton (4-2, 4.14) have given the pitching staff a solid starting point.

Brandon Claussen has been poor, and the Reds are depending on 23-year old Elizardo Ramirez to hold down the fifth spot.

But the pitching staff has been solid, especially with the addition of new closer Todd Coffey, who has a 1.85 ERA.

So far, so good.

Of course, talk about the Reds inevitably turns to Ken Griffey, Jr., and his inability to stay healthy. This season, he missed over a month because of an injury, and has missed a few games this week.

When he’s played, Griffey has played very well. Pundits want to compare his success to his days in Seattle. Let’s not forget Junior launched 35 homers a year ago. When healthy, the outfielder is as good as ever. He’s hit 10 homers in 32 games and had driven in 34 runs.

One of Krivsky’s least-noticed moves came when he traded for Brandon Phillips at the end of spring training. With the Indians, Phillips showed a good glove but little else. In Cincinnati, the former top prospect (six homers, .316) looks like the best Reds’ second baseman since Joe Morgan.

Phillips combines with All-Star shortstop Felipe Lopez to give the Reds strong defense up the middle, as well as some pop. Lopez is batting .286, with six homers.

Of course, it could all fall apart. Griffey could get injured again, and the starting staff could crumble because of an inconsistent bullpen. The Reds are depending on clutch performances from so-so veterans (Rich Aurilia, Scott Hatteberg), all-or-nothing power hitters (Adam Dunn) and some unproven youth (Edwin Encarnacion), and productive utility men (Ryan Freel).

But so far, it’s working. The Reds are a half-game up in the Central.

It’s only June. But if the Reds are still contending when it’s only July, it might be time to take them seriously.