NEWS

Top Seeds Look to Make This the Craziest March Yet

Written by Adam Hoff
Published March 21, 2006

By all accounts, this has been a fantastic NCAA Tournament. After two rounds we have the Missouri Valley Conference staking its claim as a national power, the Pac-10 salvaging an off year, and two double-digit seeds reaching the Sweet 16. It all fits with the concept that this is the most "wide open field yet."

In fact, the prevailing feeling about this year's field is that anything can happen. You hear coaches talking about parity and experts saying that anyone can win it and after a while, you become convinced that this is the year that a team will come out of nowhere to cut down the nets. While this could certainly happen, the truth is that the giants are still lurking. UConn, the heavy favorite, has played poorly but remains in the field. Duke seems to be growing stronger every game. Memphis is wowing with its athleticism and depth, quickly turning into the kind of bully that UNLV was in the early 1990's (meaning: coming out of a middling conference, flying under the radar, and then blowing people away). Texas is still around. So is UCLA. The truth is that the Final Four will probably feature three of those five teams, in addition to the survivor of the Nova-BC-Florida-Georgetown bloodbath in the Minneapolis region.

The fact that some sense of order will probably be restored this coming weekend got me thinking about the possibility of the all number one seeds reaching the Final Four. Wouldn't that be the ultimate irony? 2006 seems to be the pinnacle of parity in college hoops, and this tournament is being hailed as the most wide open ever. So wouldn't it be the craziest development yet if, after all of the upsets and buzzer beaters, this thing went chalk into the Indy?

Considering that it is has never happened before, the smart money is on at least one of these top seeds going down. However, you have to think that it is bound to happen sometime. After all, the last two World Series winners were the Red Sox and White Sox. I doubt many people were calling for that in the winter of 2004. Not only that, but the fact is, the top seeds have a lot of momentum right now. Going into the tournament, Memphis was a popular pick to get bounced out early and Villanova's status was in doubt because of an eye injury suffered by star guard Allan Ray. One week later, both of those teams have answered all the questions and move into the regionals on a roll. Strangely enough, only the heavily favored UConn Huskies seem to lack momentum.

Not only are the top seeds all looking like favorites, but just the fact that they are in the Sweet 16 is a good sign. It doesn't sound like much for a 1 seed to advance to this round, given that the best team they can face is an 8 seed during the first weekend, but over the past 10 years, seven of the 40 top seeds have failed to even make it into the Sweet 16. Not only that, but each of the losers bowed out in even-numbered years. In the last five odd-numbered years (1997, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005), all of the top seeds advanced, but in the even-numbered years (1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004) only 13 of the 20 top seeds have marched on. This is a little freaky, to be honest with you. However, here we are in 2006, and its the first even-numbered year since 1988 that has seen all the 1 seeds advance through the first two rounds. Could it be a sign? After all, in the last eight even-numbered years, top seeds are 17-5 in Sweet 16 games and 12-5 in regional finals. Top seeds had success in the past when they made it this far.

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Adam Hoff is the columnist for the Webby-winning WhatifSports.com. He can be reached at wis.insider@gmail.com.
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Top Seeds Look to Make This the Craziest March Yet
Published: March 21, 2006
Type: News
Section: Sports
Filed Under: Sports: Basketball, Sports: College
Writer: Adam Hoff
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Comments

#1 — March 22, 2006 @ 00:38AM — Matthew T. Sussman [URL]

Way to bring the meat again. You alluded to this earlier, but it's coming to the point where not every 1 seed is as respected as they used to be, so perhaps you're right in that the bulls-eye isn't exactly on Memphis and Villanova.

More people are going with teams like UCLA and Boston College to advance over the 1 seeds.

#2 — March 22, 2006 @ 03:33AM — Adam Hoff [URL]

You are right. In addition to the fact that this tourney is being forwarded as the ultimate example of parity in college hoops, we also have two 1 seeds that don't fit the usual profile. Nova runs the four guards and Memphis played in C-USA, so they just don't feel like the typical, "big, bad #1 seed." It would add to the irony if this group of top seeds were to reach Indy. Personally, I am still pulling for a Bradley, West Virginia, George Mason, and Georgetown Final Four. Gotta love the underdogs!

#3 — March 22, 2006 @ 09:49AM — Matthew T. Sussman [URL]

I have WVU as an Elite Eight team in the Atlanta region, but since my D.C. bracket is completely broken (both my Elite Eight teams are gone) I'd rather see total choas there. I think I'd love to see Washington win Washington. Headlines write themselves.

#4 — March 22, 2006 @ 21:47PM — Adam Hoff [URL]

I'm from SW Washington originally, so I've always pulled for teams from the Northwest. Maybe an upset by UW can wash away the bitter taste of the Seahawks' Super Bowl loss, ease the pain of the Sonics' current train wreck, and dull the agony of another losing season for the Mariners. I think we can all admit that the 2005 WBNA title for the Seattle Storm isn't going to hold this city's depression off for much longer.

Plus, Brandon Roy is my favorite player in the field and my bet to win the NBA rookie of the year award next season. The longer he is in this tournament, the better.

#5 — March 24, 2006 @ 02:55AM — Adam Hoff [URL]

Well, so much for that!

By the way, this whole post was all just a thinly-veiled jinx to knock the Blue Devils out of the tourney and help me win my pool.

#6 — March 30, 2006 @ 22:53PM — Adam Hoff [URL]

I'd just like to take a moment to point out how incredibly off I was on this one. I appreciate that nobody raced back to pile on, but wow. I choose THIS year to ponder whether all four top seeds could make the Final Four, and for the first time since 1980, NONE of them made it. What are the odds? What a fantastic tournament though. I've never been so happy to be so wrong.

#7 — March 31, 2006 @ 00:00AM — Matthew T. Sussman [URL]

Dude, you were home scot free, but you had to go and bump this story into the fresh comments. Rookie mistake, man.

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