In this installment, we discuss a topic near and dear to my heart — writing, as in screenplays. And I approach Sunday night with the confidence that the Academy will pretty much make the wrong choice for both Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay. But first, a few other awards...

VISUAL EFFECTS

The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
King Kong
War of the Worlds

WILL WIN: King Kong
SHOULD WIN: King Kong

Since none of the Best Picture nominees are up in here, this gets a little easier. Since all of these made lots of money and had incredible special effects, it becomes a little harder. A little prestige never hurts in this category, so that nudges out War of the Worlds, which didn't really make any Top Ten lists. And though lots of people respected Narnia (especially its box office) no one really considered it an Oscar caliber film, whereas at least a few folks thought Kong had that Academy sheen. And there's something very old Hollywood about Kong that I think voters will find appealing. The BAFTA win won't hurt, either.

I've waxed before on the genius of Kong, the digital creation if not the movie. If Serkis and co. can't swing an acting nod, this will have to do.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Howl's Moving Castle - Hayao Miyazaki
Tim Burton's Corpse Bride - Tim Burton and Mike Johnson
Wallace and Gromit in The Curse of the Were-Rabbit - Nick Park and Steve Box

WILL WIN: Wallace and Gromit
SHOULD WIN: Wallace and Gromit

There's no Pixar this year. However shall we decide? Well, the same way that The Incredibles swept the Annies last year, Wallce and Gromit swept it this year, winning in all ten nominated categories. Plus virtually every critics circle award. Never mind that the duo are no strangers to the Oscars, having won in the Animated Short category for A Close Shave and The Wrong Trousers.

I haven't seen Howl's Moving Castle, but if it's half as good as Spirited Away or Princess Mononoke, it's beautiful and confusing. Wallace and Gromit is beautiful and straightforward - and funny as hell. By the way, of the following Tim Burton masterpieces, guess how many he's been nominated for...

Ed Wood
Big Fish
Edward Scissorhands
Sleepy Hollow
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
Batman

If you guessed "None. This is his first nomination." you can be depressed along with me.