As usual, we begin this year with three categories I like to call Murderer's Row, so named because usually I haven't seen any of the short doc, narrative, or animated films, and they'd be ridiculously tough to call even if I had.

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)

Badgered
The Moon and the Son: An Imagined Conversation
The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello
9
One Man Band

Will Win: The Moon and the Son: An Imagined Conversation
Should Win: One Man Band

If there's one thing I've learned about this category, it's that there is no way to figure out who's going to win. There's no rhyme or reason to it. You can't count on star power, with Billy Crystal and John Goodman losing out while voicing Mike's New Car. You can't even count on Pixar, who's only two for four. Luminaries in the field like Don Hertzfeldt and Bill Plympton are not locks. So really, you could pick any reason and be right or wrong. This time I'll go for star power, with John Turturro and Eli Wallach (yes, Tuco) voicing a father and son.

As far as should, I've only seen Badgered in its entirety (you can watch it here) and a trailer for 9 (look for it here), which looks cool and apparently is going to be expanded to become Focus' foray into the animated feature game, but nothing here shakes the faith I have in Pixar to do kick-ass shorts. One Man Band is the short that will precede Cars.

SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

Ausreisser (The Runaway)
Cashback
The Last Farm
Our Time Is Up
Six Shooter

Will Win: The Last Farm
Should Win: Our Time Is Up

Haven't been able to see a smidge of any of these. Again, the Academy is very unpredictable here. In the past few years I've found that they pick the film that is a little bit less interesting, at least on paper. So I'm going with The Last Farm, which, as you might imagine, is about some old guy protecting his farm.

As far as best premise (which is really all I can judge here), although the thought of seeing Brendan Gleeson in a short thriller (Six Shooter) is intriguing, I have to go with Kevin Pollack as a therapist who discovers he only has a short time to live and starts getting blunt with his patients in Our Time Is Up. Especially when you throw in Hurley.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

The Death of Kevin Carter: Casualty of the Bang Bang Club
God Sleeps in Rwanda
The Mushroom Club
A Note of Triumph: The Golden Age of Norman Corwin

Will Win: God Sleeps in Rwanda
Should Win: God Sleeps in Rwanda

The heavy subjects tend to lead here. Chernobyl. The Holocaust. Y'know, light fare. So the first two docs deal with starvation and genocide in Africa respectively, and the "mushroom" in The Mushroom Club describes a cloud. Africa is a bit more of a hot topic right now, I'm gonna go with God Sleeps in Rwanda, which deals a little more directly with the issue, since Carter is about a photojournalist.