NFL Picks of a Thoughtful Fool, Super Bowl Edition
Published February 02, 2006
Total Points: I already pointed out that I think I would take the under on the o/u of 47.5 but it's not worth the even money return. But we could probably work in a point range bet with that to make it more interesting. For instance, let's say you were very confident the total points would be between 35 and 52. Bet $100 each on the following the four ranges that cover that: 35-41 pays $350, 42 to 45 pays $720, 46-49 pays $630, and 50-52 pays $800. As long as the total points fall between in that range, your return will be positive; anywhere from $50 to $500. Another one that is worth the risk.
Then there are a couple of very, very strange lines, like the coin toss. I don't know about you but my guess is that it would be pretty much 50-50. Maybe I don't understand the nature of coin flips or maybe NFL coins are weighted awkwardly. But for some reason, you have to bet $104 to win $100 if the Seahawks win the toss, but you only have to bet $101 to win $100 if the Steelers win.
I kid. That is not a Tinkerbell-esque form of logic; it actually makes perfect sense. Remember, the bookies want exactly the same amount of money on either side of the bet. That way (as I have explained before) they are assured of a profit. It just means that for some reason, possibly mere statistical randomness, more people have been picking the Seahawks to win the toss and the bookies are trying to push more money over to the Steelers side to balance things out. But this is a silly bet. Why would you pay a premium for an even money bet? If I wanted the odds stacked against me I would just play blackjack.
Another interesting line that is indicative of the current wisdom about this game: margin of victory. The smallest payoff is a margin of victory of exactly 3 for the Steelers — that means it is the one thought to be most likely. The next most likely? Steelers by greater than 24 points. Expectations are high for yet another Super Bowl blow-out.
I don't really have the expectation of a blow-out, but my feeling about this Super Bowl is that, like most, it will be anti-climatic. What is the chance that the Super Bowl generates the same heat that the Colts attempt at perfection generated? How about the same emotional reaction and column fodder that Terrell Owens gave us? (Even this week we get a dose of T.O. in the form of this extended, and rather bizarre, interview with Donovan McNabb.)
- NFL Picks of a Thoughtful Fool, Super Bowl Edition
- Published: February 02, 2006
- Type: News
- Section: Sports
- Filed Under: Sports: Football (American)
- Part of a feature: NFL Picks of a Thoughtful Fool
- Writer: David Mazzotta
- David Mazzotta's BC Writer page
- David Mazzotta's personal site
- Spread the Word
- Like this article?
- Email this
Save to del.icio.us
Comments on this articleComments
And no sooner do I submit this than the Mike Martz deal goes sour. Good ole dependable Lions; they always find a way to stick it to me.
Perhaps they could make an 11th hour deal with Moses Moreno?
Great. Thanks.
Dave, great run-down.
I'm actually anticipating one hell of a game, but that's mainly because my wife is from Pittsburgh and I dearly want to see her boys win "One For The Thumb." When you care, really care, about the outcome of a game, not until the score gets to 42-3 do you start to unclench. That's the way it works for me at least. My doctor prescribed 148 ounces of 4.5% ethyl alcohol in a malt suspension for this malady.
Anybody want to start a line on how long it takes from kickoff for the cameras to catch Bill Cowher mouthing the word "m***er f***er"?
Do not let me fly to Denver! I repeat: Do not let me fly to Denver! OMG, could it BE any worse???
And I happen to like Dancing With The Stars, except Jerry Rice's quick-step left much to be desired.
Perhaps in two years they could draft Michigan wideout Mario Manningham?
Thank-you for your positive remarks and insights on the city of detroit. Please dont bless us with your presence
GFY......................Perry S. Wyatt Jr.
Great stuff, David. You're one of the better writers on BC.
Oh. Almost forgot:
SHARK'S PICK:
Fat guys on steroids by 13.
~Bet on it!
So the Steelers take it despite a substandard game from their defense.
The Seahawks played splendidly but pissed away all their scoring chances, confirming what many of us have suspected all year: they are lacking in toughness -- mental toughness in this case. And I'm afraid it starts with the head coach who called some unbelievably nonsensical plays.
So I end the season right about the game, right about the first quarter winner, and technically right about the over/under although my bet went bad because I felt the need to get cute about it. (Let's leave the Knicks out of it, shall we?)
One more question. GFY stands for Good For You, doesn't it?
Correction: So the Steelers are given it by the referees despite a substandard game from their defense.
If anyone doubts Shark's Grand Unified Theory that all professional sports are FIXED, I present Superbowl ex-el as prime evidence.
...Oh... and the Fat Guys On Steroids won by 11.
I missed by 2 points.
=====
Bonus stock tip o' the day:
Budweiser:
SELL
quick.
Add your comment, speak your mind
(Or ping: http://blogcritics.org/mt/tb/43098)
You had me at "scrunchy-face."