Dave's Oscar Nod Predictions: Think They'll Like Brokeback?
Published January 25, 2006
On Tuesday, January 31st, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will announce the nominees for The 78th Annual Academy Awards, what some folk reckon The Oscars. Why wait that long when you can find out now what one obsessed pundit thinks will be nominated? And I don't make you get up at 5:30am PST, either. You're welcome.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams - Junebug
The one to beat.
Maria Bello - A History of Violence
This all depends upon how the Academy chooses to nominate her, if at all. The Golden Globes had her up for a lead nod. But every other critics' circle on the planet considered (I think rightly) her performance to be supporting. SAG ignored her altogether, but I think hers will be the nod that defies them. And not for nothing, but I think she gave the best performance here.
Catherine Keener - Capote
Presumably the other one to beat, though the Globes and BFCA had no trouble ignoring her. Advantage: Adams.
Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener
The Globe win gives this a push. Remember, this year the Globes happened before Oscar nod balloting closed, so those wins could influence voters.
Michelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain
Get used to that title.
Sorely overlooked: Summer Glau in Serenity. An intense performance that leaves room for some of the funniest facial expressions since Silent Bob.
Best Supporting Actor
George Clooney - Syriana
The Globe win locks this nod.
Matt Dillon - Crash
I don't think the Academy will split nods the way SAG did for this film (between Matt and Don Cheadle), and Matt's the one with more buzz, so...
Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man
Sympathy for last year's Sideways snub. Though if you ask me, his best supporting performance was in Safe Men. "Veal Chop! Veal Chop! Veal Chop!"
Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain
Was he in Brokeback? Check. Okay, that's good enough for the voters. Moving on...
William Hurt - A History of Violence
Kind of like last year's Alan Alda warhorse nod, except Alda deserved it (never mind Hurt already won this for Kiss of the Spider Woman).
Sorely overlooked: Take your pick from the supporting cast of Munich.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Brokeback Mountain - Larry McMurtry & Diana Ossana
- Dave's Oscar Nod Predictions: Think They'll Like Brokeback?
- Published: January 25, 2006
- Type: Opinion
- Section: Video
- Filed Under: Video: Film and TV Business
- Writer: David Dylan Thomas
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Comments
I think too much of a deal is being made about the Golden Globes. The only time anyone pays attention to them at all is when there's controversy - some of which they generate themselves. You can tell how much of the barrel bottom is being scrapped in Hollywood these days, when the nominee for best picture (Brokeback Mountain) was made from a short story. The best movies usually were made from books, where the best parts can be gleaned and used in their cinematic version (see Lord of the Rings). That being said, Brokeback Mountain should have run for only fifteen minutes to a half hour. It is curious that this movie got the nod over Crash or Syriana, and had the story been about a man and a woman, do you think this movie would have even been made, no less receive an award?
Well, sweetheart, if Brokeback was about a man and a woman, there would have been no story at all.
Submitted for your approval, films adapted from short stories:
Memento, Bringing Up Baby, All About Eve, Rear Window, Rashomon, 2001:A Space Odyessy, Minority Report, Million Dollar Baby, The Wild One, Smoke Signals, Meet John Doe, A Christmas Story, A Face in the Crowd, Die Hard 2
I don't think it would be scraping the bottom of the barrel to nominate any of these.
Well, maybe Die Hard 2, but that's the middle of the barrel at worst.
How do you not think SIN CITY should get a nod for best adapated screenplay? Not only is it panel for panel, it works!
Hopefully "Paheli" gets a nod for Best Foreign Film. Best Foreign Films don't have to be so dark.
That was a tough call. But I remember Rodriguez saying that the adaptation was "easy" since he didn't really change anything. The challenge was getting it on the screen, which is what I think he and Frank Miller have been overlooked for, hence the directing, not screenwriting, mention. Still, it's a helluva adaptation.
What's Paheli? Do tell.
"You can tell how much of the barrel bottom is being scrapped(sp) in Hollywood these days, when the nominee for best picture (Brokeback Mountain) was made from a short story."
Winner of the most ill-informed comment of the day. You win copies of Blow-up, Stagecoach, The Killers, Field of Dreams and In The Bedroom.
... when the nominee for best picture (Brokeback Mountain) was made from a short story...
And what a beautiful story it was and continues to be! I admit it, I'm prejudiced. I'm rooting big time for Brokeback Mountain all the way. After 7 weeks, it remains in the Top Ten. It's been the #1 "dating movie" for 3 weeks. There must be something about the story that attracts the public to check it out. Heterosexual males should take note. Want to get into your girl's pants? Take her to Brokeback Mountain and show her your "sensitive side".
That comment should evoke a bunch of gobbledegook!
Exactly, Chris - very few would have cared to watch it. The problem with films that deal with LOVE is that it's very easy to let the film get too maudlin and saccharin, to the point that it makes the viewer cringe (see Love Story). One can go a tad overboard in other genres (like action films) and they can still be viewed without requiring a paper bag.
It's important to remember why we go to the movies in the first place, and that's to be entertained. It's of no interest to me what critics think of the movies they review. I have nothing in common with this lot - there's no way that a person can see that many films and not have their opinions influenced by the sheer volume of what they watch (some would say jaded). Also, I have to pay to see these films, so that will play into how I like it.
Ang Lee is not in the same kind of company as Spielberg, Capra, Scorsese, Coppola and other great directors. For example, Francis Ford Coppola has 29 films to his directorial credit, (not counting his role as producer). James Cameron, whose "Titanic" won best picture a few years back, had done 19. Only people of this caliber could take a short story and run well with it (Spielberg's Minority Report and AI are examples). Otherwise, the rest are operating at a disadvantage. Ang Lee's last cinematic achievement was Hulk (in all, he's directed 10), and he wasn't getting a lot of praise for his work there, either. So now this relative greenhorn takes a generic love story whose only distinction is that it features two gay cowboys (banging each other, no less), and we are to think that this movie is worthy of an award? Go watch a porn flick with two guys going at it and tell me the difference.
Speaking of ill-informed, El Bicho, there was a time when doing a remake of previous movies was considered a bad idea - yet now they're being made three times over. It's not just in movies, either. Every other art form has suffered from a lack of good ideas as well. That's the information age for you: it takes very little time for anything good to get run right into the ground. These days, the more interesting stories are found in comic books, and Steve Martin is doing a remake of the Pink Panther. God help us all.
By the way, I liked "Field of Dreams" - but I wouldn't say it's worthy of a Best Picture.
Totally disagree, Katfish. The love story underlying "Brokeback Mountain" has been told with a man and a woman in many different forms...think "Remains of the Day" or any other movie about a couple who for whatever reason can't completely be together but can't completely break apart. If you think it's indistinguishable from gay porn, then you've not only missed the boat, you're not even on the dock. Might as well put "Romeo and Juliet" on par with "Debbie Does Dallas"...it's just a man and woman going at it, right? And it's interesting that you would use quantity as the main criterion for the caliber of a director. Brokeback Mountain is a tender and heartwrenching depiction of the lives of two ill-fated lovers, and if you find it too slow (yes, it is slow) or are intolerant of the gay content (yes, it does have gay content), then fine. Diff'rent strokes. If you have failed to have been entertained by Brokeback Mountain (assuming you've actually seen it, which is unclear to me from your posts) there are plenty of smash-bang-boobies-shoot'em'all films you can see instead. If you think it's undeserving of recognition for being a good film, however, you're confusing "movies you like" with "movies that are good," and that's a narrow perspective indeed.
Katfish,
To compare "Brokeback Mountain" to a gay porno illustrates that you haven't seen either or that your ignornace knows no bounds. Maybe both according to gonzo's latest article, eh?
How many films a person makes does not equate to their talent as a director. Is Welles' "Citizen Kane" just okay because it was his first film? What about Tarantino's "Reservoir Dogs" or Nolan's "Memento"?
Coppola hasn't made a good movie in over a decade and double check that list at IMDB because he hasn't directed 29 films. While you're there, look at how many films Scorsese made while a greenhorn. "AI" was a mess due to Spielberg's involvement.
Speaking on non sequiturs, what do remakes have to do with films being made from short stories? Trying to shift the focus of another incorrect statement?
You must not have liked remakes like Houston's "The Maltese Falcon", DeMille's "The Ten Commandments", Hitchcock's "The Man Who Knew Too Much", Leone's "A Fistful of Dollars", Struges' "The Magnificent Seven". Should I continue?
I don't think William Hurt will be nominated for the reason that he wasn't in the movie that long. Granted, he did have a very memorable part - I think the Academy has gotten a lot of flack over the low screen time of many winners, or maybe it's just me. Examples: Nicole Kidman in "The Hours," Anthony Hopkins in "Silence of the Lambs" (only in the movie for 30 minutes!)
Do you think "Memoirs of a geisha" will get some important nods? Personally, I don't believe this film is strong enough, but please give a thought for the name Rob Marshall.
Memoirs of a Geisha is getting worse reviews than The Ringer, but this has not prevented John Williams from winning Best Score at the Globes, nods for Ziyi Zhang (from both the Globes and SAG), an NBR win (for all that's worth) for Gong Li as Best Supporting Actress, and loads of technical nods from places like the Art Designers Guild and the Costume Designers Guild.
I doubt anything as high as a Best Director Oscar nod will come out of all this. Maybe some technical nods and, as I say, outside chance for Zhang. Rob's last nod was for the far-better-received Chicago.
That having been said, I was very impressed with the work he did in Chicago and look forward to his next film. Maybe he should get together with Bill Condon again.
I can't agree with you more. And I'm waiting for Rob's next project too.
"What's Paheli? Do tell."
Paheli is India's official entry into the Oscars. A colorful light hearted movie which is based on a Rajastani folk tale from like the 1600's.
Directed by one of India's top directors (in terms of skill, not Bollywood success since the masses their like escapist fantasy only), Amol Palekar.
Very good movie with romance, drama, comedy, and of course, songs (but really good songs, not typical bollywood crap).
The kind of movie if Oprah watched, she wouldn't stop raving about it for weeks. But, alas, Oprah is a bit too closed-minded for Bollywood.



Nice post. Regarding Oscar nominations for comic book adaptations, here are two: Ghost World and American Splendor. I thought Road to Perdition might have, but while it received a number of nominations an Academy Award wasn't one.