NEWS

RJ's NFL Picks - Week 17

Written by RJ Elliott
Published December 29, 2005
Part of NFL Picks

I went a fairly impressive 11-5 last week. That puts me at 149-91 overall, for a winning percentage of over 62%.

This is the final week of the regular season. Only one playoff spot is still undecided in the AFC, and three are up for grabs in the NFC. In the AFC, either Pittsburgh or Kansas City will join Jacksonville, Cincinnati, New England, Denver, and Indianapolis in the postseason. Over in the NFC, Chicago, Seattle, and the New York Giants have already clinched playoff berths. The remaining spots will go to three of the following four teams: Dallas, Washington, Carolina, and Tampa Bay.

Now, on to my picks for the NFL's Week Seventeen:

Saturday, Dec. 31

Denver 12-3 at San Diego 9-6 - 4:30 p.m.

Neither team has anything to play for, other than pride. Denver has already locked up their division and a first round bye. San Diego has already been eliminated from playoff contention. I'm guessing Denver will rest some key players. That, coupled with the home-field advantage, should give the Chargers the edge in this one. SAN DIEGO BY 9

N.Y. Giants 10-5 at Oakland 4-11 - 8:00 p.m.

The Giants are in the playoffs, but they have not wrapped up their division yet. That fact should be motivation enough for them to give a full effort against Oakland. GIANTS BY 10

Sunday, Jan. 1

Arizona 5-10 at Indianapolis 13-2 - 1:00 p.m.

I'm certain Dungy would like to rest his starters, but he does not want to head into the playoffs on a three game skid. I believe he will play his starters early, and once they get ahead of Arizona by a comfortable margin, he'll unleash the second stringers. COLTS BY 13

Baltimore 6-9 at Cleveland 5-10 - 1:00 p.m.

Baltimore has won two in a row, and Boller is starting to impress. But the Ravens are winless on the road this season. The Browns got shutout by the Steelers 41-0 last week. I think Cleveland will bounce back from that humiliation and win this meaningless game. BROWNS BY 3

Buffalo 5-10 at N.Y. Jets 3-12 - 1:00 p.m.

Buffalo shocked the Bengals last week, 37-27. The Jets got whipped by New England 31-21 on ABC's final telecast of MNF. The Bills aren't very good, but they are better than the sorry Jets. BUFFALO BY 6

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RJ Elliott is a graduate student at the University Of Central Florida. His passions in life are sports, politics, nature, and women who have piercings they never told their daddy about. He dislikes daytime television, left-wing dictators, and people who talk like Garrison Keillor. He is ambivalent about the names "Trig" and "Piper."
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RJ's NFL Picks - Week 17
Published: December 29, 2005
Type: News
Section: Sports
Filed Under: Sports: Football (American)
Part of a feature: NFL Picks
Writer: RJ Elliott
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#1 — December 29, 2005 @ 19:10PM — RJ Elliott [URL]

Week 17's picks are up!

#2 — December 29, 2005 @ 19:38PM — Bennett

Broncos - I'm less than impressed with San Diego's performace in the second half of the season, and I think Denver is too diciplined to let this game slip away.

Giants.

Colts. What RJ said.

Baltimore - Boller wants to end the year on a high note.

Bills.

Panthers.

Bengals - playing the spoiler card.

Steelers.

Pats - Brady likes to win, and he's tasted WAY too many losses this year already.

Bucs - FEMA says it's on the way... Too late for N.O., as usual.

Niners - What RJ said. In the rain at Candlestick, it won't be pretty.

Jags.

Bears - Time to get tough.

Redskins.

Cowboys.

#3 — December 29, 2005 @ 19:52PM — RJ Elliott [URL]

Thanks for the quick picks, Bennett! But you missed the Seattle-Green Bay game...

#4 — December 29, 2005 @ 21:51PM — Bennett

Ah! Thanks.... Seahawks!

Your picks are good, and the reasoning was interesting, again.

Let the games begin!

#5 — December 30, 2005 @ 19:00PM — RJ Elliott [URL]

Temple!
Suss!
Theory!

Emerson?
Bob A. Booey?

You've got less than 24 hours to make your picks! It's just me and Bennett so far...

#6 — December 30, 2005 @ 20:58PM — Matthew T. Sussman [URL]

I have nothing funny to say here, unless you count me picking the Texans.

Broncos
Giants

Colts
Ravens
Jets
Panthers
Bears
Bengals
Steelers
Patriots
Bucs
Texans
Jaguars
Seahawks
Redskins
Cowboys

#7 — December 31, 2005 @ 00:59AM — The Theory

oi vey, this week has flown... doesn't help that our computer is in the shop, limiting my e-access. But at least I'm in time to pick... which is all that really matters.

Denver 12-3 at San Diego 9-6... heh, RJ's reasoning sounds as solid as possible before the game. Sand Iego.

N.Y. Giants 10-5 at Oakland 4-11... Ahhhrgh! Yeah, I think the Giants will take this one. Oi. This is a hard week.

Arizona 5-10 at Indianapolis 13-2... Pffft. Yeah, what better week to start winning again than once you're in the playoffs? Arizona.

Baltimore 6-9 at Cleveland 5-10... Cleveland. Just to show the team that they used to be that they're no better than themselves.

Buffalo 5-10 at N.Y. Jets 3-12... Buffalo.

Carolina 10-5 at Atlanta 8-7... Carolina. And let me take this oppertounity to say that I am so glad Atlanta is not in the playoffs. That just tickles me pink.

Cincinnati 11-4 at Kansas City 9-6... KC. Cincy who?

Detroit 5-10 at Pittsburgh 10-5... Steelers. Detroit isn't going to win another one all year.

Miami 8-7 at New England 10-5... This is a hard one. But I think the patriots will pull this one out. Especially in New England.

New Orleans 3-12 at Tampa Bay 10-5... TB.

Seattle 13-2 at Green Bay 3-12... Yeah, Seattle won't give even 50%... but 50% of seattle is still better than GB. Seattle in a close one.

Houston 2-13 at San Francisco 3-12... SanFran. For the reasons RJ gave.

Tennessee 4-11 at Jacksonville 11-4... Oooo. I'm tired, but not so out of my mind that I think TN has a chance. Jacksonville.

Chicago 11-4 at Minnesota 8-7... Chicago may have clinched a spot in the playoffs, but they got a quarterback in there who played his first game last week. I think they'll play him again to try and get the game slowed down farther for him, despite his stellar effort last week. Thus I predict a chicago win.

Washington 9-6 at Philadelphia 6-9... I'll pick Washington, but I'll root Philly. because if there is one team I don't want to see make the playoffs, it's Washington.

St. Louis 5-10 at Dallas 9-6... Dallas.

#8 — December 31, 2005 @ 13:34PM — Temple Stark [URL]

the only differences i would have would be Bengals over Kansas City

SEattle over Green Bay - 14 would be the most win Holmgren ha ever had' Alexander and the whle team wants him to get the single-season record. I was just up in Seattle, took a tour around (as in perimeter) of Seahawks Stadium I was ASTOUNDED about how much everyone is taking SuperBowl; usually that's something teams shy away from.


Wow Texans and 49ers - who would have figured on that bottom of the barrel match-up to end the season. 49ers proved they want to win last week.


And I think the Eagles wil suprise the Redskins.

Other than that I'm in agreement with RJ. This week is a lot easier to pick than last week.

#9 — December 31, 2005 @ 19:48PM — RJ Elliott [URL]

Final Score:

Denver 23, SD 7 - RJ 0-1...

#10 — December 31, 2005 @ 19:50PM — RJ Elliott [URL]

BC.org pickers:

RJ 0-1
Bennett 1-0
Theory 0-1
Suss 1-0
Temple 0-1

#11 — January 1, 2006 @ 01:09AM — RJ Elliott [URL]

Final Score:

Giants 30, Oakland 21 - RJ 1-1

#12 — January 1, 2006 @ 01:11AM — RJ Elliott [URL]

BC.org pickers:

RJ 1-1
Bennett 2-0
Theory 1-1
Suss 2-0
Temple 1-1

#13 — January 1, 2006 @ 16:19PM — RJ Elliott [URL]

Final Score:

Pittsburgh 35, Lions 21 - RJ 2-1

#14 — January 1, 2006 @ 16:20PM — RJ Elliott [URL]

Final Score:

Jets 30, Bills 26 - RJ 2-2

#15 — January 1, 2006 @ 16:21PM — RJ Elliott [URL]

Final Score:

Dolphins 28, NE 26 - RJ 2-3

#16 — January 1, 2006 @ 16:22PM — RJ Elliott [URL]

Final Score:

Packers 23, Seattle 17 - RJ 3-3

#17 — January 1, 2006 @ 16:23PM — RJ Elliott [URL]

Final Score:

KC 37, Bengals 3 - RJ 4-3

#18 — January 1, 2006 @ 16:23PM — RJ Elliott [URL]

Final Score:

Indy 17, Arizona 13 - RJ 5-3

#19 — January 1, 2006 @ 16:24PM — RJ Elliott [URL]

Final Score:

Bucs 27, Saints 13 - RJ 6-3

#20 — January 1, 2006 @ 16:25PM — RJ Elliott [URL]

Final Score:

Carolina 44, Atlanta 11 - RJ 7-3

#21 — January 1, 2006 @ 16:27PM — Bennett

Bennett 3-4, gad it sucks when the team you pick plays all second stringers from the second quarter onward.

And NE damn near tied it up in the last few seconds! A missed 2 point try with NO time left on the clock kept the game from going into overtime.

btw, Doug Flutie came in for one play and drop kicked an extra point, the first in the NFL since 1941...

NE would have mopped the floor with the Fins had they played their starters.

#22 — January 1, 2006 @ 16:28PM — RJ Elliott [URL]

Final Score:

Browns 20, Ravens 16 - RJ 8-3

#23 — January 1, 2006 @ 16:28PM — Bennett

Now I'm 6-4

#24 — January 1, 2006 @ 16:28PM — Bennett

make that 6-5

#25 — January 1, 2006 @ 16:35PM — RJ Elliott [URL]

Here is where the BC.org pickers stand after 11 games:

RJ 8-3
Bennett 6-5
Suss 7-4
Theory 6-5
Temple 6-5

#26 — January 1, 2006 @ 16:37PM — RJ Elliott [URL]

And here is where the ESPN "experts" stand after 11 games:

Theismann 5-6
Salisbury 7-4
Hoge 7-4
Jaworski 6-5
Schlereth 7-4
Allen 5-6
Mortensen 6-5
Golic 6-5

#27 — January 1, 2006 @ 19:16PM — RJ Elliott [URL]

Final Score:

Jags 40, Titans 13 - RJ 9-3

#28 — January 1, 2006 @ 19:17PM — RJ Elliott [URL]

Final Score:

Vikings 34, Bears 10 - RJ 10-3

#29 — January 1, 2006 @ 19:28PM — RJ Elliott [URL]

Final Score:

San Fran 20, Houston 17 - RJ 11-3

#30 — January 1, 2006 @ 19:29PM — RJ Elliott [URL]

Final Score:

Redskins 31, Philly 20 - RJ 12-3 (!)

#31 — January 1, 2006 @ 19:34PM — RJ Elliott [URL]

Here is where the BC.org pickers stand with one game left in Week 17:

RJ 12-3
Bennett 9-6
Suss 9-6
Theory 9-6
Temple 9-6

#32 — January 1, 2006 @ 19:36PM — RJ Elliott [URL]

And here is where the ESPN.com "experts" stand:

Theismann 8-6 (did not pick the Bears @ Vikings game...)
Salisbury 11-4
Hoge 11-4
Jaworski 10-5
Schlereth 10-5
Allen 8-7
Mortensen 10-5
Golic 7-8

#33 — January 2, 2006 @ 12:05PM — RJ Elliott [URL]

Final Score:

Rams 20, Dallas 10 - RJ 12-4

#34 — January 2, 2006 @ 12:06PM — RJ Elliott [URL]

Here is how the BC.org pickers did in Week 17:

RJ 12-4
Bennett 9-7
Suss 9-7
Theory 9-7
Temple 9-7

#35 — January 2, 2006 @ 12:08PM — RJ Elliott [URL]

And here is how the ESPN.com "experts" did:

Theismann 8-7 (did not pick the CHI @ MIN game...)
Salisbury 11-5
Hoge 11-5
Jaworski 10-6
Schlereth 10-6
Allen 8-8
Mortensen 10-6
Golic 7-9

#36 — January 2, 2006 @ 12:17PM — RJ Elliott [URL]

I went 161-95 for the season. That's a winning percentage of 62.89%.

Here is how the ESPN.com "experts" did for the season:

Theismann 148-92 (did not make a pick in 16 games) - 61.67%
Salisbury 180-76 - 70.31%
Hoge 179-77 - 69.92%
Jaworski 169-87 - 66.02%
Schlereth 171-85 - 66.80%
Allen 157-99 - 61.33%
Mortensen 172-84 - 67.19%
Golic 162-94 - 63.28%

As you can see, I had a higher winning percentage than two of the eight "experts" from ESPN.com.

#37 — January 2, 2006 @ 13:00PM — Douglas Mays [URL]

You called it on the Seahawks! Missed your spread by only a point. Let us hope their (hawks) minds don't go into limp chaos for the playoffs. Actually, ideally the Colts and Seahawks will be brilliant on their way to the SuperBowl and have an awesome match to finish the season...

#38 — January 2, 2006 @ 15:34PM — Matthew T. Sussman [URL]

This poor sap went 148-108.

Breakdown per team:

Guessing Ravens games (8-8)
Guessing Bills games (9-7)
Guessing Bengals games (8-8)
Guessing Browns games (9-7)
Guessing Broncos games (9-7)
Guessing Texans games (9-7)
Guessing Colts games (12-4)
Guessing Jaguars games (11-5)
Guessing Chiefs games (7-9)
Guessing Dolphins games (7-9)
Guessing Patriots games (9-7)
Guessing Jets games (12-4)
Guessing Raiders games (12-4)
Guessing Steelers games (11-5)
Guessing Chargers games (8-8)
Guessing Titans games (11-5)
Guessing Cardinals games (6-10)
Guessing Falcons games (8-8)
Guessing Panthers games (10-6)
Guessing Bears games (12-4)
Guessing Cowboys games (6-10)
Guessing Lions games (9-7)
Guessing Packers games (10-6)
Guessing Vikings games (7-9)
Guessing Saints games (10-6)
Guessing Giants games (9-7)
Guessing Eagles games (11-5)
Guessing 49ers games (11-5)
Guessing Rams games (8-8)
Guessing Seahawks games (10-6)
Guessing Buccaneers games (9-7)
Guessing Redskins games (7-9)

(For the record I didn't go back and figure this. My company sells NFL pick software, among other things, and it generates these stats.)

#39 — January 2, 2006 @ 15:54PM — Temple Stark [URL]

There's NFl pick software ?????


That's sad. but if the company you work for makes money - yippee.


RJ came on strong in the last two weeks especially. Bravo. I should add up my stuff and see how I did. RJ might have caught up some in the last few weeks. ;-)

#40 — January 2, 2006 @ 16:00PM — Matthew T. Sussman [URL]

It's not our cash now by any means, but we have it and as a result us foot soldiers get a free taste of it every year.

Here's who bought it from us:
• Redding (Calif.) Searchlight
• Observer and Eccentric, Livonia, Mich.
• Las Vegas Review Journal
• NewsOK.com, Oklahoma City
• Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
• Evansville (Ind.) Courier and Press
• Ogden (Utah) Standard Examiner
• Sauk Valley Newspapers, Illinois
• Salt Lake Tribune
• Chicago Tribune
• Treasure Coast Newspapers, Stuart, Fla.
• Northwest Herald, Crystal Lake, Ill.
• Kane County Chronicle, Geneva, Ill
• Allentown (Pa.) Morning Call
• Quincy (Ill.) Herald Whig
• Stamford (Conn.) Advocate
• Greenwich (Conn.) Time
• WWMT-TV, Kalamazoo, Mich.
• KOSA-TV, Odessa, Texas
• WRAL-TV, Raleigh/Durham, N.C.
• WRAZ-TV, Raleigh/Durham, N.C.

#41 — January 2, 2006 @ 16:09PM — Temple Stark [URL]

cow right?


Ah, OK, looking at it from the wrong end of the stick. I was thinking for individuals. Got it. Makes perfect sense.


Herald Whig? Wow LOL

#42 — January 2, 2006 @ 16:16PM — MCH

Congratulations on another successful season for Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger, in spite of some preseason predictions that his season last year was a "fluke" and that he would suffer a "sophomore slump."

Roethlisberger matched his touchdown passes total of 2004 with 17 TD strikes again this year, while leading the entire NFL with an 8.1 yards-per-completion average. He was 10-3 in games started for the Steelers, and ranked third in the AFC passer ratings, with 98.6, and fifth in completion percentage, at 62.7%.

Not too shabby for a flash-in-the-pan, sophomore jinx.



#43 — January 2, 2006 @ 16:30PM — RJ Elliott [URL]

The Steelers in 2004 - 15-1, Division Winner, Bye Week, best record in the NFL

The Steelers in 2005 - 11-5, Wild Card, made the playoffs in the last week of the season

My prediction back in September:

By "stumble" I simply mean that they cannot win 15 games this year.

Ten? Maybe. Playoffs? Maybe. Better record than the Lions? Maybe.

But will they go 15-1 again? No way!

14-2? Nope.

13-3? No chance.

12-4? Highly unlikely.

11-5? Possible, but I doubt it.

10-6 or 9-7 seems more realistic to me...


So...I was off by a single win...

#44 — January 2, 2006 @ 16:33PM — Matthew T. Sussman [URL]

Cow. Moo.

I too am a fan of Roethlisberger -- he made a believer out of me his final year at Miami U. -- but I too thought he'd have an off year.

The first year none of the teams knew much about him. The second year would have given all NFL teams time to prepare and figure him out.

Among other great quarterbacks who had sophomore slumps: Brett Favre, Jim Plunkett, Joe Namath.

I too heard those sophomore slump/jinx calls, from Ron Jaworski I believe, who added that Roethlisberger would have a fine career after that.

Just another case of good logic, wrong prediction.

#45 — January 3, 2006 @ 10:31AM — MCH

Another impressive stat by Big Ben is that he threw two fewer interceptions this year (11 in '04, 9 in '05).

I don't believe Roethlisberger will ever become one of the game's greatest quarterbacks, but I do think he's a tough competitor who gets the most out of his abilities, has a knack for finding ways to win, and performed perhaps the best year ever by a rookie QB.

#46 — January 3, 2006 @ 13:53PM — Matthew T. Sussman [URL]

My gut tells me he'll win a ring down the road.

Probably not this year, however.

#47 — January 3, 2006 @ 14:05PM — MCH

Well, I'm a Steelers fan, since '72 (my other team is the Bears, since '67), so I hope you're right.

#48 — January 3, 2006 @ 15:25PM — Matthew T. Sussman [URL]

The Bears have a much better chance than the Steelers. They remind me a lot of the 2000 Ravens, i.e. all defense and no quarterback.

Rex Grossman might be good, but who can tell? I believe he has 4 career wins as a starter and has yet to play a full season. All he has to do is not fuck up and the Bears can win every game 16-3.

#49 — January 3, 2006 @ 15:55PM — MCH

I'm just glad both "my" teams are in the playoffs, it's been awhile. I don't expect either one to go all the way, although I tend to agree with you that the Bears should go farther. It'd be nice if Pittsburgh wins one and Chicago makes it to the NFC title game.

#50 — January 9, 2006 @ 01:12AM — MCH

In the Steelers 31-17 wildcard victory over Cincinnati, sophomore sensation Ben Roethlisberger continued to prove his rookie year was no "fluke," completing 14-of-19 for 208 yards, with three TD passes and no interceptions for a gaudy 148.7 passer rating.

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