I know from personal experience that it's extremely difficult to count large crowds at an unticketed event. You break the crowd up into sectors, count a sector and multiply by the number of sectors and the result you get is generally wrong, but about as good as you can hope for.

In almost all cases the estimates people arrive at are too high. Not necessarily intentionally too high - though that's a factor too - but estimates tend to trend high just because they do.

Dave

I contemplated writing a media reality check piece on numbers, be they about storms or protests, and how most are worthless.

Numbers are in stories because editors asked for an estimate but as Dave correctly pointed out it's quite hard to do accurate estimates.

Birds, I was with you half-way until I got to your conclusions and you shifted from logical thinking to partisan guessing and mere speculation.

I mean, do you actually belive this crap?:
"I can only wonder whether those protesting today are actually hoping that the American & Coalition efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan will fall apart and descend into chaos?

I fear that the answer to this must unfortunately be "Yes." At least among those who have planned and organized the event.

Uh...Scott...you said,

"Birds, I was with you half-way until I got to your conclusions and you shifted from logical thinking to partisan guessing and mere speculation."

Scott, did you notice that my posting is listed as "Opinion" and not "Fence-Sitting Objectivity?"

Oh, and, by the way, the concepts of "logical thinking" and "opinion" are not antonyms.

We should do a survey of 1000 randomly selected US households and form an attendance estimate based on an interpretation of weighted responses

(file the following under 'no troll could resist' and edit if you must)

By the by - I checked in the Book of Antonyms and listed first under 'logical thinking' is 'BoP's opinion'

BUT - in a footnote it says BoP must be encouraged to express his thoughts in blog fashion lest he take g-man's axe and go after dissenters

troll

'his'...? Pure assumption

hmmm - take my sexism off my bridge

troll

Yesterday I clicked by C-Span and of course the Anti American Channel that is paid for by Cable Operators they deduct C-Span expenses from their taxes. However, C-Span claims they are not tax supported. They were carrying the Hate American speeches made by Sheehan and her Trash at the referenced rally. I suppose that if someone is interested in calling the C-Span's hand on the tax issue, it is in some public document. I did not stay long but this morning I Googleized it and found this Blog, which reports a reasonable account in my opinion.

I would rather Cable Operators deduct C-Span expenses from their taxes than have the US Government deduct money from my taxes to pay Lockheed Martin. Given their salary and what percentage of tax money the Government is paying them, around $100 of each taxpayer's money goes to Lockheed Martin. Disturbing, no? Also, I was at the protest in D.C., and most protesters are not calling for a cataclysmic immediate withdrawl, but a timetable set for the near future that calls for gradual withdrawl. The people who planned this event are not trying to cause chaos and death, but prevent it by bringing our children home. On a final note, I don't see how you can still support the Vietnam War after it has been clear for so many years how utterly useless and destructive it was. Anti-war protesters of the Vietnam Era helped to put an end to a war that never should have been started in the first place. In fact, there's evidence released two years ago under the Freedom of Information Act that suggests that Nixon was so scared by the Moratorium protest that he threw out a plan for nuking Hanoi out of fear of mass public backlash at home. It may sound out there, but Nixon was a paranoid nutjob, and you can always check out this information for yourself

Thanks for the grammar lesson.

Eisenhower said. "I hate war as only a soldier can hate war."

It's mostly chicken hawks who love war.

We have "accomplished a great deal in a very short time in the Middle East"? Unless you are talking about destroying the infrastructure of a foreign government, increasing the number of terrorists and anti-American feeling across the region, and destroying relationships with our former allies(oh, yes, and helping to move Iraq back to a government where women and minorities are explicitly being denied protection and representation.), I don't know what you think we have accomplished. And let's not forget the young Americans dying and being horribly maimed for the sake of this grand folly. Yes, Bushie is doing a heckuva job.

y'all need to wake up and smell the entire pot of coffee in front of you and not just your cup of coffee. this is a bullchyt war. Many of us knew during little Bush's first nonelected presidency right from the getgo that he was going to try, at some point, to take out Saddam=Madass due to the latter trying to kill little Bush's daddy way back when. So, before he does that, they rig the second election (not the voting machines themselves but ALL DATA IS FED THRU WINDOWS-BASED PCs, easily hackable) and to take the Americans minds off the rigged 2nd election, little bush declares war in Iraq. Knowing that Americans forget very fast, he took an opportunity to take Saddam and his sons out. Now, taking Saddam out is a good thing but the TIMING of everything speaks tomes.

Now, as for yesterday's march....the ONLY REASON little bush disappeared to colorado and Texas after....was because he couldn't deal with 100,000 to 300,000 dissidents surrounding the white house. His ego couldn't handle this....so he makes like he's real concerned with Hurricane Rita which caused far less damage than Katrina. And he thinks we are all stupid and couldn't figure this one out too.

I say enough! Let's get him out and hope for a better president the following 8 years.!!

I was at the protest and I would say that there were easily 150,000 to 200,000. When we were coming back through the metro the customer service attendant said that there were 75,000 tickets sold above the saturday average, just on the green line.

BTW: Your conclusions and political opinions about what this protest means, and what its effects will be, only show your faithfulness to the partyline and their faultering grip on the reality of the situation at home and abroad.

"The Republican Base in the United States is not based on emotion"

Of course, because Bush's constant evoking of 9/11 and God are meant to illict critical thinking.

"One can only wonder what effect today's demonstration might have on those who will be voting in those two places."

Maybe it will show them what the rights to free speech and free assembly mean?

Nixon caused his self-destruction with Watergate

OHMYGAWD, it's the Million Man March outcry again.....

I wonder how much money the parks service spent recounting the heads in the aerial photographs, and recounting, and recounting? we sure do a lot of recounting around here don't we.

I was two rallys in DC years ago, only because I was in town for 2 weeks, at meetings and was there.

The first was the Gay rights march, which was well attended and received ALOT of press.

The next weekend was a pro life rally, which was MUCH bigger and better attended, and hardly got a word of recognition in the media.

That was an eye opener!

It's all cheap media propaganda brought to you by the NEWS BROKERAGE SYNDICATE OF AMERICA.

When I posted that last comment, I thought I'd get nothing for criticism, I'd like to thank everyone who followed for backing me up on that.

the anti-war movement helped to destroy two presidents (LBJ & Nixon)...

Um, I know this is out of context, but I would have to contest that the anti-war movement did much of anything to destroy Nixon. He was first elected at the same time that the movement was becoming a national force, and re-elected at the time that the movement was peaking. (Some might look at that and guess that the anti-war movement HELPED him.) The only thing that really destroyed the Nixon presidency, was Nixon.

"After all, USA Today reports that people were standing 12-deep during today's parade in Oceanside, California, to welcome back 11,000 Marines in the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force based at nearby Camp Pendleton."

This is a positive for Bush. During the Vietnam era it would be 12-deep of people spitting on the troops returning.

"Lots and lots and lots ... The anti-thisandthat may not have been as focused on these matters as the organizers might have hoped, but those two criticisms were the clear intent of the rally"

So what???

"It will also weaken the national and international perception of the Republican Party's political strength in both the White House and in Congress."

No, 12,000 showed up, but 299,986,000 stayed home.

This is nothing. This is all you guys could muster??? I live in California and I couldn't feel no Anit-War rumblings. There is no way there will be any more 10,000+ protests. I don't care what the liberal media says!!!

San Diego papers reported 2,000+ at the local rally, but the actual number was probably less than 1,000. The numbers are always inflated. Always. And counter-protester numbers are always undercounted.

>>Eisenhower said. "I hate war as only a soldier can hate war."

It's mostly chicken hawks who love war.<<

Historian, perhaps you could provide us with some examples of people who 'love war'. Maybe some quotes from those in the administration or those who have supported the War in Iraq where they said that they support the war because they 'love war'. I think the insight would be valuable.

Dave

The way that people treat troops nowadays is not a positive for Bush, but a positive for antiwar protesters. Bush didn't separate hating the war and hating the soldiers, protesters did. I proudly carried a "Support the Troops: Bring Them Home!" type sign at the rally, and I even saw many Vietnam Vets there as well. On another note, the corporate media isn't so "liberal" if the protest of around 300,000 that shut down D.C. was barely mentioned in the news. As for antiprotesters being undercounted, I saw about 100, roughly one for every cop posted to guard them, at the DC Rally, if you ask me, they were overcounted at that event. To be fair, more may have come later. Finally I would say that no politician would claim to "love war" but the Bush Administration loves Halliburton, Halliburton loves oil, and the war is certainly getting us that. No soldier or citizen loves this war, but Lockheed Martin and Halliburton are making a killing off of it.

democracy now stated the number "between 100,000 and 300,000," the largest official tally i saw on the web.

either way, compare it to the number of folks who attended the "support our troops" rally in dc the next day: 400.

Hi, It's Kris from Reflections of a Libertarian Republican. Thanks for the mention on the crowd counting. I'm not the best counter, but it was very hard to get around because of all of the people and also the D.C. police chief strikes me as an objective fellow.

The U.S. Park Police used to make objective assessments of crowd sizes, but they haven't since Louis Farrakan complained when in 1995 the Park Police said that far fewer than one million people showed up for the Million Man March. The Park Police-- it was after all during the Clinton administration --decided that they didn't need the flack and discontinued their service. At least that's what I recall.

I'm posting tonight about the rally for the troops held on Sunday, which the Post described as "tiny," so stop on by.

I was there and it was massive. Malkin's photos is cropped and does NOT show the hundreds of thousands on the side streets. Her photos shows the ellips after we were spilling out onto the street to start the march...we waited for an hour in line before we moved one foot. When we finally made it around the first corner, we could see the marchers ahead of us several blocks over. Considering that it took us over 4 hours to complete the 1.5 mile march, it was obvious that our numbers were well into the hundreds of thousands. Congressional representatives on Monday told us that we were "second only in numbers to the million man march" and that the reps in congress were "rethinking" their current "stay the course" stances. Whether it was 300k or 600k, the fact is, the march was massive and our representatives heard us. We are the majority now.

hey does anyone have a photo of that tall guy's poster:"W stands for WHORE". one side was about oil/halliburton and one side was "W is a WAR CRIMINAL" etc..and was pro-impeachment? had run out of film by then and would LOVE a copy if anyone can email to me. thanks!!! also what do you all think of the sentiment? that this administration chooses to profit privately from war and domestic tragedy as opposed to trying an economic system that is all inclusive and gives the poor an opportunity to participate by offering fair wages and 401k ownership as did rubin and reich under clinton.

I'm relieved to read you are not concerned the anti-war protest will affect the base of the Republican party. It'll be nusiness as usual. How about Hagel though? And how about other defecters? That can't help. Thank god for Leiberman but he's not even a Republican. By the way, where do you stand on escalating the war in Iraq? Remember, if you can't support it, a partriotic citizen would STFU.

What startled & elated me most was not the sheer numbers of the crowds, but the amazing numbers of veterans AND currently serving military personnel protesting as well. THAT says volumes, that even active duty soldiers (and officers, too) were out to protest Bush's policies & call him a liar to his face for a change. The presence of the military also was cheered by those in my sector, who took to chanting 'Support our troops - bring them HOME!" & in some cases, forming line & shooting their fists in the air at the word 'home'.

It was pretty crowded down there. The Metro cars were SRO coming & going. Of course the organizers will err in their estimates on the wilder side of huge, while the detractors & the administration will pretend there were none at all, and the MSM estimates will be all over the map depending on their political agenda.

A pity that spineless yellowbellied coward Dubya couldn't even have enough guts to stay, but ran away pretending he had someplace else he had to inspect - someplace he's been ignoring until now when it's convenient. He must think we're all as stupid as he is.

Nancy, this article is about the big anti-war protest TWO YEARS AGO, you know, the one where the numbers were massively overreported. The one this past week was much smaller by all accounts - probably because of the time of year.

Dave

Thank you, Dave. I was just going to point out the same thing.

WHOOP-! LOL, this is what I get for trying to write early in the am-! My bad ... butchaknow, it's a timesless subject & does apply equally to yesterday's protests.