Startling news from France. Of all the countries in the European Union, the arch socialists and generally goofy French appear to be on the verge of rejecting the EU Constitution in a referendum coming up in May. This is something I would have expected of England or Denmark or one of the more sensible countries, but loony France? What on earth is going on?

In the second poll this month, the French public showed a clear inclination not to vote for the EU Constitution, and surprisingly the strongest opposition is among French leftists, not French nationalist right-wingers. After looking over the document I have to conclude that this must be because the new Constitution doesn't give away enough national sovereignty. The sneaky Brits have weaseled in some wording which protects business and industry from EU government interference, and that must gall the French leftists quite a bit. Could they be voting against this Constitution in hopes of getting a stronger EU government on the next try? Or could it just be the growing anti-Islamic sentiment in France which is making them nervous about future EU members like Bulgaria and Turkey?

The French trend is a surprise to many, so it's getting a lot of press coverage. What's not getting as much coverage and may be even more significant is that a number of other countries are also likely to reject the new EU Constitution. In Britain polls show a very strong majority opposed to not just the EU Constitution, but to continued membership in the EU alltogether. An ICM poll shows a 55-25% split opposed to the EU Constitution, with 70-90% majorities stating a preference for British sovereignty over the EU government on a variety of issues. Since that poll the numbers in Britain have gotten somewhat better for the EU, mainly because Britain was bribed with an offer of the presidency of the EU in 2006 when the referendum there on the Constitution will take place. Even so, The Sun shows only 24% for the Constitution and 56% opposed.

The situation in Denmark is also very bad for the EU Constitution. Prime Minister Anders Rasmussen suggested the likelihood that Denmark would have no choice but to pull out of the EU if they voted down the Constitution as they have voted down many other EU programs. Some other countries remain enthusiastic - mostly those who stand to benefit most from outside aid and increased trade from the EU, like Poland and other Eastern European members, except for the prosperous Czech republic where 17 out of 24 EU parliament representatives voted against the Constitution and the public is even more opposed.

Theoretically, for the Constitution to pass it needs to be approved by every one of the member states. It actually already has 15 favorable votes at this point because a number of countries passed approval through their parliaments without a referendum, but it may be unable to get more than 1 or 2 more. Right now the only remaining country showing a majority supporting the Constitution is Ireland. but others, even France seem right on the borderline. The remaining 10 countries are scheduled to hole referenda over the next year.