And here's where I break down my time-honored tradition of rewarding the work and not the man. I think that M$B is as well-directed, if not better directed, than The Aviator. One is a triumph of minimalism, the other of not-so-much-with-the-minimalism. Scorsese has, no doubt, made far better films. GoodFellas, Raging Bull, Taxi Driver. But after a while, yes, I'm happy to see him win just for being Marty. It probably won't happen, but I'll cheer my hypocritical ass off if it does.

BEST PICTURE

The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Ray
Sideways

Will Win: The Aviator
Should Win: Sideways

If you looked only at the big awards, the only movies to consider here would be The Aviator and Sideways. Only they have walked away with Golden Globe, BAFTA, BFCA, or PGA awards. M$B only enters into the fray if you talk about critic's circle awards, of which it, like The Aviator, has five. And yet, the odds-on favorite in this category is M$B. Maybe it's because it has such a cool abbreviation.

Whatever the reason - Clint love, Swank love, Freeman love - it now, and not The Aviator (and certainly not Sideways which seemed to run out of Oscar juice a month ago), is now the movie to beat.

But here's the thing. No movie in last place in the box office race (of the five nominees) at the time of the Oscars has ever won Best Picture. And only one movie in fourth place has ever won (The Last Emperor, I believe). Guess where M$B is right now. $3mil out of third place, which belongs to Sideways.

Now, to place it all on a box office stat is a little spurious, but it's all I've got. That, and this. Miramax has only two films in the final five this year and had none the year before. I think that's significant because Miramax may not even exist for next year's Oscars. And even if it does, it's questionable if it'll be the same Miramax. In a world of Fox Searchlight and Warner Independent, Miramax doesn't mean what it used to. Even without them, we're talking about a "little indie" company that has a $116mil epic up for Best Picture. A movie at number one in that final five b.o. race. Previous Miramax Oscar winners have included Chicago, The English Patient, Shakespeare in Love. Now Patient may have been an epic, but it starred B-list celebrities with an untested director for a quarter of the cost of The Aviator, starring Leo DiCaprio and directed by Martin Scorsese.

With The Aviator, Miramax has completed the transformation into big budget studio.

And, with that, I believe Elvis will leave the building. Whether or not The Aviator wins or loses will determine whether or not Miramax - as we know it, and as it has become - will end with a whimper or a bang.