Truth be told, I haven't seen Bening or Staunton's performance, (and the fact that neither is out on DVD is a disservice to the campaigns of both), so I could be wrong. But from what I've seen, Swank's performance is the powerhouse here. If I am wrong, it's probably in the direction of Staunton, judging by the critical reaction.

BEST ACTOR

Don Cheadle - Hotel Rwanda
Johnny Depp - Finding Neverland
Leonardo DiCaprio - The Aviator
Clint Eastwood - Million Dollar Baby
Jamie Foxx - Ray

Will Win: Jamie Foxx
Should Win: Jamie Foxx

17 critic's circle awards. BFCA, Globes, BAFTA, SAG. The only way Foxx could lose is if everybody forgot to vote for him cos' they figure he'd win anyway.

Clint Eastwood, revered icon, never won for acting, blah, blah, blah - it's gonna be Foxx.

And why does he deserve it? Because he becomes Ray. There is no Jamie Foxx in that movie. There's a little bit of Leo in The Aviator, less as the movie goes on, but it's there. There's a lot of Clint in M$B (and it works). In a way, there's a little Jack Sparrow in Finding Neverland, but the real issue there is that the character is a bit one-note for my tastes. Cheadle actually disappears into his role as much as Foxx, but the transformation is so much more complete with Foxx. Admittedly, the fact that he's playing a blind man gives him an edge. But if I think about the most memorable Cheadle transformations, I think of Devil in a Blue Dress and Out of Sight before this.

And not for nothing, but I think Topher Grace and Jim Carrey deserve to be up in here, too. No, not for Win a Date with Tad Hamilton.

BEST DIRECTOR

Clint Eastwood - Million Dollar Baby
Mike Leigh - Vera Drake
Taylor Hackford - Ray
Alexander Payne - Sideways
Martin "Oh my God, is this actually my fifth nom?" Scorsese - The Aviator

Will Win: Clint Eastwood
Should Win: Martin Scorsese

Clint's kind of a sacred cow in Hollywood. He's already won an Oscar for Best Director, but you know what, that won't stop the Academy from giving him another one. And do you know why? Because for some reason that's not entirely clear, the Academy fucking hates Martin Scorsese.

In nearly a quarter-century of Oscars, Marty's been nominated for Best Director five times. In that time he's lost to Barry Levinson, two actors and a pedophile. Now he's up against an actor again. They're like his kryptonite. I didn't think the curse would hold, but then the DGA, ultimate prognosticator of Directorial Oscar Glory, bestowed their coveted gaze upon Clint. Clint! I love Clint and all, but dammit, Marty's due! He's become the Chicago Cubs of directors. I'm hoping this year he becomes the Red Sox, but it doesn't look good.