BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett - The Aviator
Laura Linney - Kinsey
Virginia Madsen - Sideways
Sophie Okonedo - Hotel Rwanda
Natalie Portman - Closer

Will Win: Cate Blanchett
Should Win: Virginia Madsen

Let me just start out by saying this is one of the hardest categories I've ever had to guess. It used to be easy. Madsen was hailed by numerous critic's circles as the best thing since her brother in Reservoir Dogs. The BFCA win seemed to confirm this. Then something happened.

"And the Golden Globe goes to...Natalie Portman!"

And Church lost, too. To another Closer staffer. Was Closer the new Sideways? Surely the SAG awards would clear this all up.

"And the Actor goes to...Cate Blanchett!"

I'm sorry. Did the awards season just blow your mind?

Yes, it seems everybody was up for something now. Cate's admittedly suspicious (only because she's Australian, which is, y'know, kind of British) BAFTA win negated the notion that her bid was any more of a fluke than the other two.

So Madsen fills in the niche of the comeback kid (Kim Basinger), Portman the young ingénue (Jennifer Connely), and Blanchett the, um, Katherine Hepburn slot (Katherine Hepburn - who, incidentally, was never nominated for Best Supporting Actress).

Finally, I just looked at Goldderby.com, saw Blanchett was leading at 8/5, and said "screw it."

Which is too bad. I was really hoping that Madsen's run would continue. She really gives an amazing performance. But hey, she'll get more work.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

That guy from M*A*S*H - The Aviator
That guy from Wings - Sideways
That guy from In Living Color - Collateral
That guy from The Electric Company - Million Dollar Baby
That guy from those BMW shorts - Closer

Will Win: That guy from The Electric Company
Should Win: That guy from Wings

Again, a very tough one. Similar timeline for a Sideways actor on this one. Lots of critical acclaim for Church. He walks into the Globes with a strong lead and a BFCA win. He walks out empty handed. Clive goes on to add a BAFTA to that Globe, and when the SAG awards roll around, they both get dissed and Morgan Freeman gets a standing ovation.

And then, just to make things more confusing, the Academy throws Alan Alda into the mix even though no other ceremony had even nominated him.

Here's how I think it'll break down. The Academy won't really take Clive seriously. As I mentioned in my Globes preview, Closer is more of a New York than an LA phenomenon. Alda's really just there as window dressing. The nom is his reward. Voters will figure that Church is young, and will get another shot. They'll be all over the notion of (a) rewarding Freeman's long streak of outstanding, overlooked performances (no, not Chain Reaction, the other stuff), and (b) having two black actors win awards again, further rebuffing claims of racism in Hollywood (since they all figure that Foxx is a lock for Best Actor).